U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Southeastern Natural Resources Leadership Group Regional Climate Change Meeting Charleston, South Carolina May 27 – 29, 2008

What role can USGS play?  Knowledge acquisition – research and monitoring  Mitigation - policies  Adaptation - actions

“Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.” Research

Monitoring WaterWatch Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year Drought Watch Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year

Monitoring  Phenology  NBII  Invasive species  NWIS  WaterWatch  DroughtWatch r=us&w=real%2Cmap r=us&w=real%2Cmap  Climate Effects Network - future

Dauphin Island, Alabama August 31, 2005 September 17, 2004 July 17, 2001 Hurricane Ivan Hurricane Katrina

Salinities circa 1900 Northern Transition Zone and Central Florida Bay – euryhaline Northern Transition Zone and Central Florida Bay – euryhaline Central Biscayne Bay – polyhaline and euhaline Central Biscayne Bay – polyhaline and euhaline Card Bank – euryhaline and polyhaline Card Bank – euryhaline and polyhaline Central Biscayne Bay – euryhaline, polyhaline, and euhaline Central Biscayne Bay – euryhaline, polyhaline, and euhaline Whitewater Bay – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline Last 100 years in Florida Bay – loss of typical estuarine zonation and a loss of biodiversity Last 100 years in Biscayne Bay – a shift of zones into the estuary as environments become increasingly marine Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline and polyhaline Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline and polyhaline Modern salinities

Setting Attainable Restoration Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level Rise Salinity (ppt) Calendar Years AD FreshwaterMarine Orange line represents hypothetical salinity data derived from analyses of sediment cores From 1000 AD to approximately 1900 AD data show gradual increase in salinity that might occur during sea level rise

Salinity (ppt) Calendar Years AD FreshwaterMarine Blue line highlights the trend in increasing salinity due to rising sea level Gray area represents the offset from the natural trend – can assume this is probably an anthropogenic effect Natural trend line offset Setting Attainable Restoration Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level Rise

Setting Attainable Restoration Performance Measures Salinity (ppt) Calendar Years AD FreshwaterMarine Natural trend line offset Performance measures that set targets at pre-1900 salinities may not be attainable because sea level rise and other factors would make it difficult to return to this salinity range Performance measures that set targets at an intersect point along the trend line of natural salinity increase will be realistic and attainable Restoration

Paleoecology Collect sediment cores from array of subenvironments throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem: Tree islands Sawgrass ridges Sloughs Sawgrass marshes Cattail marshes Marl prairies Mangroves Conduct pollen analyses, establish age models, and timing and patterns of vegetational change.

Willard et al. (2001) Vegetation Trends During Last 2,000 Years, Dwarf Mangrove Stand, Site MC1 Near Florida Bay

Holocene Climate and Environmental History

IPCC Climate Simulations Data obtained through the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset 20C3M -- represents the IPCC SRES climate of the 20th century SRESA2 -- describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth and slow economic growth SRESB1 -- describes a convergent world with low population growth and rapid changes in economic structure 5 GCMs: 1.cgcm 2.echm 3.gfdl 4.giss 5.hadc 3 GCM Scenarios:

Stream ImpoundmentWater Withdrawal Aquatic Biota Channel Condition, Connectivity Historic land use, channel modification Water quality: temperature, DO, contaminants Runoff/Wastewater discharge Population processes: Persistence Reproduction Colonization Land Cover Dynamics Base flowsLarge floods High-flow pulses Small floods Extreme low flows Approach: Relate hydrologic alteration to population processes, in context of geomorphology, land cover, climate change… climate change

Simulation of Wave Watch III to Western North Atlantic (0.25deg x 0.25 deg). Cold Front Warm Front Tropical Storm - wave heights in color - surface wind vectors Storm Systems