U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Transformation of the U.S. energy landscape Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator

EIA principles 2 Established as the single, independent federal government authority for energy information and mandated to collect, assemble, evaluate, and analyze energy information Provide relevant energy statistics and analysis as a public good Be accurate and objective Protect the confidentiality of respondents Maintain the public trust Independent Statistics & Analysis Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

U.S. Overview Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15,

Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. energy intensity index, 1980 = 1.0 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 energy use per capita energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP Projections History 2011

Natural gas and renewables increase their share of primary energy use through 2040 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 8% 20% 36% 8% coal natural gas renewables (excluding biofuels) nuclear petroleum and other liquids Projections History % liquid biofuels 28% 9% 19% 32% 11% 2% share of total U.S. energy use

Energy production by fuel – natural gas dominates through 2040 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. delivered energy production quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 HistoryProjections2011 natural gas nuclear liquids coal hydropower non-hydro renewables

Why we might could will be wrong? Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower economic growth Faster / slower technological progress Different relative fuel prices Technological breakthroughs

Renewable energy Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15,

Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation 9 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 25% 19% 42% 13% 1% nuclear oil and other liquids natural gas coal renewables 2011 ProjectionsHistory 17% 16% 35% 30% 1% % 13% 19% 11% 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

Renewable electricity generation by type, including end-use generation, Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. electricity net generation billion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Projections 2011 solar biomass geothermal hydropower municipal solid waste/landfill gas wind

Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and U.S. non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year Note: Advanced biofuels (cogeneration) not visible Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 wind solar geothermal municipal solid waste/landfill gas biomass industrial CHP power sector 2011 ProjectionsHistory Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

Natural gas continues to make up the largest share of additions to electricity generating capacity through the projection Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Projections History 2011

U.S. growth in GDP flattens out while growth in electricity use declines through most of the projection 13 percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 History Projections 2011 electricity use GDP 2.4% 0.9% 2011 – 2040 average Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

14 Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal % 13% 19% 42% 30% 16% 17% 35% Natural gas $15 Carbon Fee Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 22% 27% 16% $25 Carbon Fee Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 23% 38% 4%

Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines while diesel demand increases 15 U.S. transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu ProjectionsHistory % motor gasoline E85 jet fuel CNG/LNG 11% 13% 4% 29% 47% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % pipeline fuel 3% 4% other 4% diesel 22% 1% Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 other advanced legislated RFS in 2022 biodiesel net imports cellulosic biofuels corn ethanol RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7)

Domestic resource dynamics Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15,

Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in production Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report

The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Note: Dry shale gas production data are based on LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of June 2013, converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Source: EIA based on DrillingInfo and LCI Energy Insight Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 U.S. shale and tight oil production million barrels per day U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day 19

Natural gas production in the United States has dramatically increased from shale and tight sources Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 shale gas tight gas lower 48 onshore conventional lower 48 offshore Alaska Projections History 2011 coalbed methane

Largest increase in share of natural gas consumption occur in the transportation sector Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. dry natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 33% 13% 19% 3% electric power 32% industrial 33% gas-to-liquids transportation commercial 12% Projections History residential 14% 2% 6%

Growth of natural gas in transportation, excluding pipeline use, led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come? 22 U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Note: gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 light-duty vehicles 2011 HistoryProjections 95% 52% 23% 25% 26% 67% 5% 2% buses freight trucks gas to liquids Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 bcf/day

Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports in the Reference case Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. natural gas supply and consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 net exports, 2040 (12%) total consumption total production net imports Projections History 2011 net imports, 2011 (8%)

Domestic crude availability and low natural gas prices have supported product exports annual U.S. net imports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2012 million barrels per day Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly and Annual Energy Review net product exporter exports imports net imports others (e.g. petroleum coke, residual fuel oil, propane) distillate fuel oil gasoline (including components) Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15,

United States becomes net exporter of liquids under high resource and decreased demand scenario Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, U.S. net import share of supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 37% net exports (8% in 2040) consumption domestic supply net imports Projections History % Reference Low/No Net Imports

Global issues Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15,

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of world energy consumption out to 2040 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu HistoryProjections % 28% 22% 11% 5% 28% 27% 23% 7% 15% share of world total 27 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 HistoryProjections Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations May 2013 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI 29 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 world carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History Projections Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013

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