Analytical Decision Making Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Developing and Enhancing Leadership Skills for Young Managers in Times of Crisis

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Definition - What is it? Decision Making is a conscious process of making choices among alternatives with the intention of moving toward some desired state of affairs.

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Rational Choice Decision-Making Process Identify problem or opportunity Choose the best decision process Develop alternative solutions Choose the best alternative Implement the selected alternative Evaluate decision outcomes

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Identifying Problems & Opportunities “The first 55 minutes should be spent defining the problem and the last 5 minutes solving it.” Albert Einstein Problems and Concerns: Stakeholder Framing Perceptual Defense Mental Models Decisive Leadership

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Evaluating & Choosing Alternatives Bounded Rationality: processing limited and imperfect information and satisficing rather than maximizing when choosing between alternatives Herbert Simon  Goals are ambiguous, in conflict and lack full support  Decision makers have limited information processing abilities  Decision makers evaluate alternatives against an implicit favorite  Decision makers process perceptually distorted information  Decision makers choose the alternative that is good enough (satisficing) A preferred alternative that the decision maker uses repeatedly as a comparison Selecting a solution that is satisfactory or ‘good enough’ rather than the optimal or the best

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Making Choices More Effectively  Decisions are influenced by rational and emotional processes  Revisit important issues  Look at the information in different moods  Allow your initial emotions to subside  Practice in Scenario Planning Anticipate emergencies long before they occur, so that alternative courses of actions are evaluated without the pressure and emotions that occur during real crises.

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Employee Involvement in Decision Making  Improves problem identification  Creates synergy  Improves decision quality with more information  Strengthens employee commitment  Unnecessary when the problem is routine  Risk of conflict

Group Exercise

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Group Exercise – The Garden Grass OBJECTIVE: To help participants understand how to identify a problem and make correct decisions ESTIMATED TIME: 45 minutes DESCRIPTION: - There are 25 cards that explain a specific situation - The cards will be shared equally between the members of each team (max. 5-6 members in each team) - Each team will try to write down the definition of the problem (cause, limitations, target goal), based on information described in the cards - Teams have 30 minutes available for discussion and 5 minutes for developing the written definition of the problem - At the end of the exercise, each team will describe how it worked (communication between the members, ways of understanding the problem, difficulties, etc).

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Group Exercise – The Garden Grass RULES:  You cannot exchange your cards with the other team(s).  You cannot show your cards to other team(s).  Communication will be verbal. You can repeat your thoughts if needed.  You cannot keep notes.  Any information deemed unnecessary by the team, will stay capsized on the table and will not be used.

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Group Exercise - Glossary Garden/ Greensward Mole Mounds/ Molehills Lawn mower Larvae

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Group Exercise – The Garden Grass Notes for trainers  Pay attention on how each team tries to understand the cause-effect sequence of the problem.  Then use this input to refer to theory.  Mention the usual mistakes in problem identification and decision making process  Explain how we can deal with them. Debriefing questions:  Did the discussion lead the members to change their views on this issue?  How did they deal with bounded rationality?

Konstantinos Ioannidis, PhD Panteion University Group Exercise – The Garden Grass Target goal: To have a nice garden with butterflies (as to avoid neighbour’s comments) Limitation: To keep the worms (larvae) Definition of the problem: How to get rid of the moles! Damaged garden  Dried areas with mounds  Moles  Worms  No pesticides  Wants to have butterflies Cause – Effect Sequence

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