Water, Murder and Mayhem 1 Andy Barron / RGJ © Joseph L Shaefer 2015

Can we “find” more water? No. (At least really unlikely…) ◦ The water in, on, ◦ and above ◦ the earth is fixed.  Mostly…  Aquifers? CAR  Mya 2 Credit: The USGS Water Science School, Howard Perlman, USGS; globe illustration by Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (©); Adam Nieman.

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 How Does Nature “Conserve?” 3

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Now That Humans are Here… In the US, How is Water Used? 4

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 How Are We Told to Conserve? “Feel good” conservation: Fix Leaks / Baths, Showers & Combat Showers / Wash only full loads No grass? Leave the yellow pine pollen on your chairs? No – and don’t let them make you feel guilty! It’s 1%. Want to really conserve? Less electricity / eat more potatoes/less meat… rice 400, wheat 130, potatoes 65, Big Macs 3000 / milk 750 / sugar 400 / coffee 10 5

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Real Water Wasters Forget Amateurs like you & me. These are the PROs… 6

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Right Here in River City Trouble with a capital “T” 7

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Is Desalination the Answer? 8 No. Yes. Maybe. Sometimes…

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 No, REALLY… How Can Humans Conserve? #1 Stop Making So Many Babies Kill ethanol-for-gas Use less electricity Choose your food Get the whole picture: e.g., Buying “Natural cotton” – wear oil, bamboo, hemp, etc. not cotton Pestilence Famine War 9

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 What If We Don’t Conserve / Recycle / Reduce Water Usage? We’ll Die. Pestilence -- 2 million die every year from waterborne infections Famine – if we can’t grow the food, we die War – the next (il)logical choice 10

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Who Has the Water? 1000 cm 3 11

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Who Has Enough for Their People? 12

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 Water Is Not Dispersed Equally Across The Globe! 13

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 The Tinder Box That is and is Likely to Remain: The Mideast 14

© Joseph L Shaefer Major Water Wars-- History 2500 B.C. – Iraq 600 B.C. & 430 B.C. – Greece Rome 1503 – Leonardo da Vinci & Machiavelli – US Civil War – LA Aqueduct – Japanese C/B Unit – Present // Ethiopian dams 2000 – Kenyan villagers vs. monkeys 2009 – Indians die for a bucket of water 15

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 War – Possible Flash Points 16 In the Mideast, every major river crosses at least one other “country’s” border Da’esh closes dam gates on Euphrates Kurdistan Israel and the Golan Heights Saudi Arabia: “food independence” = water dependence. Ethiopia / Sudan versus Egypt

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 War – Possible Flash Points The Zambezi and the Niger in sub- Saharan Africa The Mekong and Irrawaddy Water vs Potable Water: India // wells // water mafias Ditto China: 21% of the world’s people / 7% of the world’s water – much now polluted and undrinkable. Tibet& Qinghai /// India, VN, Russia 17

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 War – the Most Likely Outcome 18

© Joseph L Shaefer 2015 What Could Save Us? Fewer people. ◦ ZPG / better economies. Conservation. ◦ Redeploy waste water now, not when Nature normally would Desalination & Technology. ◦ Use less energy, create better filtration, deal with the side effects of desalination. A Krakatoa-Sized Volcanic Eruption or a Giant Meteor Storm of Interstellar Ice. 19