TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR HURRICANES A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS HURRICANES TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BENEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY

EXAMPLE: HURRICANE DEAN THE FIRST NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF 2007 CAUSED EVACUATIONS AND PREPARATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OUTER SPACE A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON 17 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON 18 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 5 STORM ON AUGUST

YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HURRICANE HAZARD INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK HURRICANE RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL SURGE POLICY OPTIONS

IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST PREPARE TO FIGHT THE WIND, WATER, AND MUDSLIDES THAT ARE COMING

HAZARDS OF A HURRICANE (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION STORM PACKETS (SOMETIMES)

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE HURRICANES UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

MONITORING TECHNOLOGY IS A VITAL PART OF THE STORY

HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY 2 STORM ON AUGUST 16

HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17

PROJECTED STORM TRACK: AUGUST 17, 2007

HURRICANE DEAN: PHOTO FROM SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOR ON AUGUST 18

A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON AUGUST 18

HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUG 21

HURRICANE DEAN BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION: AUG 23

DETAILS OF THE STORY

HURRICANE DEAN: A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17 The eye of hurricane Dean, the first of the North Atlantic season, passed between the Caribbean islands: St. Lucia and Martinique, on Friday, August 17. The two islands, less than 80 km (50 mi) apart were, were struck with winds of km per hour ( mi per hour), storm surge, and heavy rain.

IMPACTS ON MARTINIQUE In Martinique, Hurricane Dean ripped roofs from houses, schools, and other buildings. 100 percent of Martinique’s banana crop and 70 percent of the sugar cane crop were destroyed. Trees were downed. Electrical power was knocked out. Airport were closed. Tourists in coastal hotels were evacuated. $270 million damage to infrastructure

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE: AERIAL VIEW ON AUGUST 17

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE:BOAT SINKING

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE: WIND AND RAIN

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE: ROOF DAMAGE

FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE: FLOODING

IMPACTS ON ST. LUCIA In St. Lucia, Hurricane Dean turned the capital into a messy mixture of flood water and debris. It ripped corrugated roofs off houses as well as the roof of the pediatric wing of Victoria Hospital. It forced evacuations.

DAMAGE IN ST LUCIA

IMPACTS ON ST. LUCIA Hurricane Dean’s storm surge breached a protective sea wall, caused flooding, and created mountains of debris. Downed electrical power poles and lines forced utility companies to shut off electrical power to prevent electrocution. Loss of communications forced door-to- door warnings.

BARBADOS: PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE DEAN

IMPACTS ON DOMINICA In Dominica, which is located north of Martinique, Hurricane Dean caused flooding, damaged 150 houses, and downed some fences and trees. Dominica’s banana crop, a major export, was battered by Dean’s winds and rain.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Hurricane Dean was expected to dump 12 cm (5 in) of rain on Hispanola, the location of Haiti and the Dominion Republic. Haiti and the Dominion Republic are both prone to landslides and flooding, which heavy rainfall will exacerbate.

HURRICANE DEAN: DOWNED TREE IN HAITI

A CAT 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH: AUGUST 18

HURRICANE DEAN: HEADED FOR JAMAICA ON AUGUST 18

A CAT 5 STORM: AUG 21

PREPARATION ON JAMAICA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19 Remembering tropical storm Jeanne in 2004 and expecting a direct hit from Hurricane Dean on Sunday with high winds and up to 50 cm (20 in) of rain, the 3 million residents were advised to began serious preparations.

PREPARATION ON JAMAICA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19 If riding out the storm, the initial actions were to stock up on food and water, to board houses, and tie down loose objects. If evacuating, to move to shelters, or leave the area.

PREPARATION IN JAMAICA

KINGSTON, JAMAICA: PREPARATION FOR DEAN

PREPARATION IN JAMAICA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19 Tourists began going to the airport to leave. Officials called a halt to campaigning for the elections on August 27 th. 1,000 Hurricane shelters in schools, churches, and indoor sports arenas were opened on August 18 th and placed in a state-of-readiness. But only 47 were fully occupied when the winds and rains began arriving on the 19 th.

PREPARATION IN PEDERNALES: EVACUEES IN A CHURCH SHELTER

JAMAICA: STORM SURGE DESTROYED HOUSE

FLOODING AND DAMAGE IN JAMAICA

ROOF DAMAGE IN JAMAICA

DAMAGE AND FLOODING IN PORT AU PRINCE: JAMAICA

FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND DEBRIS IN KINGSTON, JAMAICA

CARIBBEAN INSURED LOSSES ESTIMATED AT $1.5 TO $3 BILLION Most of the insured loss of $1.5 to $3 billion calculated by risk modeling company, EQECAT, for Hurricane Dean’s trek through the Caribbean is in Jamaica.

DEAN BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUGUST 20, 2007

DEAN HEADED TOWARD MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO Hurricane Dean Intensified as it passed through the warmer Caribbean waters. Landfall in Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula will decrease the intensity. A category 5 storm, a rare level, will still be dangerous when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

PREPARATIONS IN CUBA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19 After earlier warnings by the US National Hurricane Center issued warnings for Cuba and other Caribbean island nations, the Cuban Government issued its own tropical storm warning. The Government began evacuating 50,000 residents from three central and eastern provinces to shelters.

SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOR DOCKED AT THE ISS

PREPARATION BY NASA FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL Fearing that Hurricane Dean might threaten the Houston home of Mission Control, NASA shortened the last spacewalk for astronauts aboard the shuttle Endeavor that was docked at the International Space Station until Sunday, August 19 th. The spacecraft was ordered to return. It undocked on Sunday in order to arrive on Tuesday, August 21, before the projected arrival of Hurricane Dean.

INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION AFTER UNDOCKING: AUG 19

PREPARATION IN TEXAS FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL Remembering the lessons learned in 2005 from the evacuation-traffic-jams before the arrival of Hurricane Rita, Texas Governor Rick Perry began full-scale preparations for Hurricane Dean days ahead. Fuel trucks were dispatched to coastal communities to facilitate evacuations. Other resources were positioned along evacuation routes.

TEXAS’ HURRICANE DEAN OPERATIONS CENTER

SOUTH TEXAS: PREPARING FOR EVACUATION, AUGUST 19

PREPARATION IN TEXAS FOR HURRICANE DEAN’S ARRIVAL The Governor ordered the state’s storm response task forces to be on an alert status. Communications were established with President Bush to request pre- disaster assistance.

PREPARATION BY PRESIDENT BUSH FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL President Bush took a unique, pre-emptive strategic step of preparedness for Hurricane Dean on Saturday, August 18 th by signing a pre-landfall disaster declaration. This declaration, a first for the USA, will allow the Federal Government to move in people, equipment, and supplies immediately if Hurricane Dean strikes the south Texas-Mexico border, as expected.

COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA, MEXICO, AND CANADA President Bush met with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Monday, August 20 th to continue coordinated planning of mutual assistance before the arrival of Hurricane Dean.

STOCKING UP IN CANCUN, MEXICO: AUGUST 19

REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19

50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO BY AUGUST 20

CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million dollar oil and gas platforms and facilities that were at risk from hurricane Dean’s strong winds and the accompanying high waves. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 flooded oil refineries, toppled oil rigs, and cut pipelines.

ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20. Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000 offshore workers and shut down production rigs on the Bay of Campeche. This action will result in a loss of revenue from production of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day.

PEMEX OIL AND GAS PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO

PREDICTED CHANGES IN CATEGORY: AUGUST 2007

HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUG 21

HURRICANE DEAN AT LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean made landfall at Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm with winds of 165 mi/hr. Before landfall, Dean had a minimum central pressure of 906 millibars, third lowest pressure after the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, was “good luck” for the people of Mexico. This location was a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, so none of the major resorts took a direct hit, and after a few hours, dean became a CAT 2 storm.

A THREAT TO THE MAYANS: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean threatened the Yucatan’s mist vulnerable people — the Mayans. The Mayans, who have not benefited from tourism or oil production, live simple lives, in wooden slat houses susceptible to wind damage and in low- lying areas prone to flooding.

LOCATION OF MEXICO’S MAYAN COMMUNITIES

LIMONES, A MAYAN COMMUNITY, WAS HIT HARD: AUGUST 22-23

MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY IMPACTED Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived many damaging storms and centuries of oppression, but surviving the impacts of Hurricane Dean on their livelihood may be their greatest challenge ever. The greatest impact was NOT the thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but the downed fruit-bearing trees and the corn crops they needed for daily existence.

IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL Hundreds of homes collapsed in Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship destination. Steel girders collapsed and wooden structures splintered from the force of the wind. About one-half the concrete dock washed away in the storm surge.

MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR (165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21

RESORT AREAS WERE SPARED A DIRECT HIT:

CANCUN: NO DAMAGE EXCEPT LOSS OF BEACH SAND; AUG 21

CHETUMAL: 125 MI/HR WINDS; AUGUST 21

CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON AUGUST 21

BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST 21

HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO

THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall as a category 2 storm on Wednesday, August 22. Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing town in the state of Veracruz on the Central Mexican coast, about 660 km (400 mi) from the border with Texas.

TECOLUTLA RESIDENTS EVACUATED BEFORE LANDFALL

PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000, with waist deep sea water. Heavy rainfall accompanying Dean, now a category 1 storm, caused rivers to rise rapidly in a region that had experienced flooding and landslides in 1999.

DEAN BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON AUG 23

THE END OF HURRICANE DEAN As Hurricane Dean diminished to a tropical storm, its impacts in Mexico and South Texas were mainly flooding and landslides associated with and exacerbated by the runoff from the heavy rainfall accompanying the storm.

INSURED LOSSES FOR DEAN Caribbean island nations (Martinique, St Lucia, Dominica, Haiti, Barbados, Dominican Republic, especially Jamaica, and Cuba) were hit hard, with insured losses estimated at $ 1.5 to $ 3 billion. Insured losses in Mexico were estimated at $300 million.

THE FUTURE AFTER DEAN Caribbean island nations began recovery and reconstruction programs. Mexico began its reconstruction and recovery program. The future of the Mayan community is a major concern.

TEXAS BEGINS TO DISMANTLE HURRICANE SHELTER

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: WORKING ON ERIN,THE NEXT STORM