What Climate Change Means for Sustainable Development WINSTON H YU, World Bank February 2009

Have you watched Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth? 1. Yes 2. No

What is the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions? 1. Industry 2. Agriculture 3. Waste 4. Energy Supply 5. Transport 6. Residential 7. Land Use Change

Global Annual GHG Emissions (1970 – 2004) Sources of GHG Emissions (2004)

What % of total CO 2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion) was emitted by industrialized countries in 1900 – 1999? 1. 87% 2. 79% 3. 68% 4. 54%

Including land-use change, which country emitted the most per capita in 2000? 1. Australia 2. Belize 3. Canada 4. Malaysia 5. United States

Top 10 country GHG emissions per capita in 2000

What observed changes over the past decades can be attributed to human factors? 1. Temperature rise 2. Increased precipitation 3. Decreased precipitation 4. Sea-level rise 5. All of the above

Changes in Precipitation (1900 – 2000)

Climate Variability v Climate Change Two key components: Long-term climate change (50 + years)Long-term climate change (50 + years) Variability (intra-annual and inter-annual variations)Variability (intra-annual and inter-annual variations) Don’t worry, the climate is not really changing that fast!

Challenges with Predicting the Future Global emissions future Climate variables ? Sectoral response ? Development and poverty ? The key is decision-making under uncertainty

Hydrologic variability presents a key challenge to growth Example: Distribution of river flow Example: Distribution of river flow Long-term mean and variances may change, but short- term variability remains

What is the Climate in Climate Resilience? paleoclimate - trends forecast - projections paleoclimate - trends forecast - projections climate variability climate change 10,000 BC Feb 2009

By how many degrees Celsius is the average global temperature projected to rise by the end of this century? A. 1°C B. 2°C C. 3°C D. 4°C E. Depends

Projected Changes in Surface Temperature

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change may help increase agricultural productivity in some countries. 1. True 2. False

Projected Impacts on Crops (wheat, maize, rice) 2020s 2050s 2080s

Which regions will most likely be negatively impacted by climate change? 1. Agriculture-dependant regions near the equator 2. Poorest regions 3. Coastal regions 4. Low-lying islands 5. All of the above

Six Climate Threats: Countries Most at Risk DroughtFloodStormCoastal 1mCoastal 5mAgriculture MalawiBangladeshPhilippines All low-lying Island States Sudan EthiopiaChinaBangladeshVietnamNetherlandsSenegal ZimbabweIndiaMadagascarEgyptJapanZimbabwe IndiaCambodiaVietnamTunisiaBangladeshMali Mozambique MoldovaIndonesiaPhilippinesZambia NigerLaosMongoliaMauritaniaEgyptMorocco MauritaniaPakistanHaitiChinaBrazilNiger EritreaSri LankaSamoaMexicoVenezuelaIndia SudanThailandTongaMyanmarSenegalMalawi ChadVietnamChinaBangladeshFijiAlgeria KenyaBeninHondurasSenegalVietnamEthiopia IranRwandaFijiLibyaDenmarkPakistan Middle Income Low IncomeHigh Income

Africa

Africa mean temperatures and annual precipitation have changed over last 100 years Less rainfall in the Sahel More rainfall in East Africa Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987

Frequency of Extreme Events - One third of African people live in drought prone areas million are annually exposed to drought - Mozambique 2000 floods - US$ 550 million (1.5% reduction GDP growth) - Kenya 1997/98 floods - $1.8 billion Infrastructure and property damage

Climate Change Projections Temperature: Temperature: Expected to increase 2°- 6°C (by the end of this century) with greatest impact over the semi-arid margins of the Sahara and central southern Africa and least in equatorial latitudes and coastal environments.Expected to increase 2°- 6°C (by the end of this century) with greatest impact over the semi-arid margins of the Sahara and central southern Africa and least in equatorial latitudes and coastal environments. Precipitation: Precipitation: Projected future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined.Projected future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined.

Historical Rainfall record ? ? ? More Rain Less Rain ? The Sahel Southeast Africa East Africa Hulme et al. (2001)

Future is more uncertain about precipitation than temperature Natural 30-year Variability Each point represents global future scenario A1, A2, B1, B2 Hulme et al. (2001)

Changes in Agriculture Reduction in soil fertility Decreased livestock productivity Increased incidence of pest attacks Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons

Increasing Desertification Two thirds of continent is desert or dry-lands

Public Health Impacts DiseasesVector Malaria, filariasis, dengue fever, West Nile fever Malaria, filariasis, dengue fever, West Nile fever Leishmaniasis Leishmaniasis Chagas disease Chagas disease Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis African trypanosomiasis African trypanosomiasis Onchocerciasis Onchocerciasis Mosquitoes Mosquitoes Sandflies Sandflies Triatomines Triatomines Ixodes Ticks Ixodes Ticks Tsetse flies Tsetse flies Black flies Black flies Vector-borne diseases that are considered to be sensitive to climate change

Pressures on Biodiversity Possible species migration Reduction in plant species habitats Impacts on wetland ecosystems

Sea Level Rise Sea levels around Africa expected to rise by 15 – 95 cm by the year 2100 Implications for coastal fisheries, saltwater intrusion, migration, coastal flooding

Adaptation to Climate Risks First step: reduce vulnerability by focusing on improved adaptation to existing variability (and extremes) First step: reduce vulnerability by focusing on improved adaptation to existing variability (and extremes) Crop diversification (e.g. livestock, forestry products)Crop diversification (e.g. livestock, forestry products) Modern cultivation methods (e.g. fertilizer techniques, improved seeds, drought resistant crops)Modern cultivation methods (e.g. fertilizer techniques, improved seeds, drought resistant crops) Improved water resources management (national and international)Improved water resources management (national and international) Improved forecasting and preparednessImproved forecasting and preparedness Community-based natural resource managementCommunity-based natural resource management Water harvesting and storage infrastructureWater harvesting and storage infrastructure Integrated coastal zone managementIntegrated coastal zone management

Adaptation to Climate Risks Climate vulnerability is exacerbated by (and results in?): Climate vulnerability is exacerbated by (and results in?): Low per capita GDPLow per capita GDP Low life expectancy and high infant mortality ratesLow life expectancy and high infant mortality rates Low adaptive capacityLow adaptive capacity Low literacyLow literacy High dependence on natural resource baseHigh dependence on natural resource base Weak governanceWeak governance Successful economic development and poverty alleviation are important means to reducing vulnerability to climate risks Successful economic development and poverty alleviation are important means to reducing vulnerability to climate risks

Support Build knowledge base: Current poor state of reliable data (spatial and temporal) for climate monitoring Stronger institutions and management: Current low level of climate expertise in region; build links between research and policy; stronger national and regional institutions for water management and managing risks Better analysis of regional impacts: Regional climate models for Africa still in development; With macroeconomic importance of agriculture in Africa, adaptation to climate risks will be critical. Given growing energy demands, evaluating impacts of long-term change on infrastructure investments Resilience to changing dynamics with floods and droughts - One response to long- term climate change is to strengthen seasonal rainfall forecasts What more can the Bank do?

Most client countries perceive climate change as a(n): _____________ issue. 1. Environmental 2. Economic 3. Political 4. Social 5. All of the above

The Client’s Perspective on Climate Change Trade offs with other development needs Trade offs with other development needs Equity if not major GHG emitter Equity if not major GHG emitter Developing vis-à-vis developed perspective Developing vis-à-vis developed perspective Technology access and adoption Technology access and adoption Capacity and knowledge Capacity and knowledge Grants versus loans Grants versus loans

What is the Bank’s role in the climate change issue? 1. Advocate 2. Neutral Partner 3. Bystander 4. Financing and Knowledge 5. None of the above 6. All of the above

THANK YOU Winston H Yu