1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC press conference, Bonn, 20 November 2007 Policy developments and projected GHG emissions by Katia Simeonova (UNFCCC secretariat)

2 1.Parties have continued to develop and implement comprehensive climate change strategies, action plans and programmes that contain broad portfolios of policies and measures to mitigate GHG emissions 2.The Kyoto Protocol is a major driver in enlarging and focusing government action and the key policies are climate driven (ECCP) 3.Three groups of policies and measures: i.Emissions pricing mechanisms, such as carbon taxes and tradable emissions allowances ii.Barrier reduction policies to overcome the information, financial and market barriers to the development and deployment of existing climate-friendly technologies and options to their full potential iii.Policies aimed at creating new technology solutions, or long-term research and development Overall policy development trend More than 1000 policies and measures implemented: a reflection of the absence of a known “silver bullet” policy

3 1.Parties are increasingly relying on harder (economic and regulatory) instruments over softer (voluntary) instruments (but voluntary agreements and partnerships continue to be used) 2.New and innovative policy approaches have gained prominence and share in overall policy portfolios, such as market ‑ based mechanisms 3.Market-based mechanisms have already successfully created a new valuable commodity, carbon, whose total quantity can be limited 4.Parties are also making great use of multilevel governance 5.Also, greater use of international bilateral and multinational activities to foster climate-friendly technology development and deployment New policy trends The EU ETS became relatively quickly the centrepiece of the EC climate change strategy aimed at meeting the Kyoto emissions commitment

4 1.Energy industries (-220 TgCO 2 eq ): tradable emissions allowances, framework targets, VA… 2.Industry (–550 TgCO 2 eq ): regulations, VA and sectoral commitments, and tradable emissions allowances… 3.Transport (+240 TgCO 2 eq): regulations and VA, framework targets… 4.Energy use in residential, commercial and institutional sectors (–130 TgCO 2 eq): information and awareness programmes, regulations, market incentives, VA, carbon tax… 5.Agriculture (–340 TgCO 2 eq) and LULUCFr (340 TgCO 2 eq ): economic incentives, regulation, and public infrastructure and resource management… 6.Waste (–60 TgCO 2 eq ): regulations, VA, framework targets… Primary polices and instruments used by sector (KP) The mix of policies varies considerably among the key emitting sectors and there is a greater use of low cost options to mitigate non-CO 2 emissions -8.7% -18% +18.6% -10% -30%+98% -15%

5 Are policies effective enough to deliver needed emission reductions: emission outlook for 2012 (KP) Kyoto Parties as a group are projected to meet the 5 per cent reduction target in 2012 compared to the 1990 levels (Article 3, paragraph 1), for a number of Parties individual targets are challenging… “With measures”: -10.8% “With additional measures” plus the use of LULUCF and mechanisms: -15.3%

6 Projections: emission mitigation challenge by sector (KP) Transport sector remains the key challenge for emission mitigation Transport: +26.8%

7 Key issues Transport sector remains the key challenge for emission mitigation More than 1000 policies and measures implemented: a reflection of the absence of a known “silver bullet” policy or measure Parties have continued to develop and implement comprehensive climate change strategies, action plans and programmes New and innovative approaches are taking greater share in policy portfolio: the EU ETS became relatively quickly the centrepiece of the EC climate change strategy aimed at meeting the Kyoto emissions commitment Kyoto Parties as a group are projected to meet the 5 per cent reduction target in 2012 compared to the 1990 levels (Article 3, paragraph 1) for a number of Parties individual targets are challenging… Many economic, energy and environmental factors – some policy driven, some not – helped to moderate the upward pressure of economic activity growth on GHG emissions

8 “Kyoto cornerstones”: data – policies – infrastructures Reports on GHG emissions Emission reduction targets under Kyoto Protocol for industrialized countries: at least –5% by compared to 1990 Policies and measures to reduce emissions Systems & infrastructures to support GHG emissions data and market-based mechanisms

9 Additional slides

10 1.During 1990–2004, GHG emissions from Annex I Parties without LULUCF declined by 3.3 per cent (with LULUCF the decline was by 4.9 per cent), while total GDP grew by 36.2 per cent 2.The decoupling of trends in emissions and GDP was greater for EIT Parties (36.8 per cent decrease in emissions without LULUCF; 11.7 per cent increase in GDP) 3.Some decoupling in the trends of non-EIT Annex I Parties also occurred (11.0 per cent increase in emissions without LULUCF; 39.5 per cent increase in GDP) 4.This was reflected in reduced emissions intensity of the economy (emissions per unit of GDP), which fell by 29 per cent for all Annex I Parties. Emissions and economic trends Many economic, energy and environmental factors – some policy driven, some not – helped to moderate the upward pressure of economic activity growth on GHG emissions

11 1.Coastal zones, water resources, human health and agriculture are the areas and sectors most vulnerable to climate change according to Parties’ assessment Coastal zones: increased risk from erosion, flooding, storm damage, changing coastal contours, wetlands build-up and salt-water intrusion into freshwater reserves Water resources: could be diminished through the drying of lakes, reduced stream flow and underground outflow and increased flooding, and degradation through freshwater contamination Human health: increased risk from heat (and in some cases, cold) stress, water scarcity, vector-, food- and water-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and diarrhoea, and pollen ‑ induced allergies such as asthma and hay fever Agriculture: risk from net reductions in crop production, with decreases in many regions and increases in fewer regions. Vulnerability and adaptation Shift of emphasis from further research on vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the implementation of concrete national plans, strategies and programmes for adapting to climate change

12 1.An increase in the contribution to the GEF and other multilateral institutions 2.An increase in the total bilateral contribution on mitigation-related activities: the energy and transport sectors received the greater part of it (sharp increase) 3.Total bilateral contribution on adaptation-related activities remained broadly stable (remains small in relation to the mitigation activities and programmes) 4.On technology transfer, the majority of the relevant activities have taken place in the energy sector (energy efficiency and renewable energy): role of bilateral and multilateral partnerships 5.Continued to support capacity-building as an integral part of the support programmes Financial resources, transfer of technologies and capacity-building Overall increase in financial contribution for climate change to developing countries and enhanced effort on technology transfer