Development of GHG projections guidelines Melanie Sporer, EEA.

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Presentation transcript:

Development of GHG projections guidelines Melanie Sporer, EEA

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Background DG CLIMA commissioned contract conducted by TNO, AMEK UK limited, Aether Limited, Oeko Institut e.V., Umweltbundesamt GmbH, final report December 2012 Part A: General Guidance (140p) Part B: Sectoral Guidance (272p) The guidelines do not prescribe a specific projection method to each MS, but guide the MS in a graded methodological approach to reflect different approaches and data situations at MS level and to provide all information on projections’ assumptions, parameters, algorithms and results that allow the Commission to derive EU-wide projections that can be seen as a consolidation of the individual MS national projections.

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 The general guidance on the step-by-step development process of an emission projection is addressed to the national projection compiler Compilation includes the collection of projected activity data (in most cases outputs from projection models), estimation of emissions and removals, checking and verification, uncertainty assessment, sensitivity analysis and reporting. Projection compiler is the person, persons or institutions who put together or develop the projection from materials gathered from several sources.

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 The following aspects of GHG projections are addressed in the guidelines Data collection -> extremely important that latest historic inventory and associated activity data and assumptions contained therein are used as a base Key category analysis -> guiding users in their methodological choice for each category Time series consistency -> ensuring the time series consistency of projections in relation to historic inventory estimates is essential to establishing confidence Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) -> sector specific quality control checks Reporting -> providing harmonised reporting tables for the projected GHG emissions

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 General approach

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 ‘Grades’ and ‘Tiers’ are introduced

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 How to include national and EU level policies

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Existing versus additional policy or measure

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 How to decide on the ‘Grade’ for AD

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 How to decide on the ‘Grade’ for EF

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 QA/QC similar as applied in emission inventories Completeness: missing sources/fuels; Comparability: misallocation of estimates to sub-sectors; Consistency: inconsistency in the time series (including historic to projected) or between approaches for different pollutants/categories; Accuracy: errors in application of assumptions or biased assumptions.

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Comprehensive QA/QC checklist

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Uncertainty should not be interpreted in terms of the uncertainty whether or not the projected future will indeed come true; the likelihood of the exogenous assumptions in terms of projected economic growth, technological developments or policy decisions are in this sense not part of the model's uncertainty but discriminate between different scenarios should be interpreted as the uncertainties in the model originating from uncertainties in the endogenous parameters and algorithms in the model; these include specific energy requirements, emission factors and similar related to specific source categories and technologies

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Thank you!

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Inventory definition: Accuracy is a relative measure of the exactness of an emission or removal estimate. Estimates should be accurate in the sense that they are systematically neither over nor under true emissions or removals, as far as can be judged, and that uncertainties are reduced as far as practicable. Appropriate methodologies conforming to guidance on good practices should be used to promote accuracy in inventories. (FCCC/SBSTA/1999/6 Add. 1) Statistical definition: Accuracy is a general term which describes the degree to which an estimate of a quantity is unaffected by bias due to systematic error. It should be distinguished from precision. (GPG 2000) Definition - Accuracy

Joint TFEIP/EIONET Meeting Istanbul, May 2013 Precision-Accuracy-Uncertainty