Haruka Iwamura and Kohei Fujikawa Darfur Case Study Haruka Iwamura and Kohei Fujikawa

Outline Historical Background The Crisis Actions of the International Community Failures of the International Community The R2P Framework Wheeler’s Criteria The Situation Today

Historical Background Sudan Independent since 1956 Ex British colony

Historical Background Civil War divided between north and south from: 1955-1972 1983-2005 South Sudan became Independent in 2011

Historical Background Ethnicity 3 disparate regions unified into a country by Britain. 134 languages. Border doesn’t have much to do with geography or demography. GENERALLY, North of Sudan is ethnically Muslim South of Sudan is ethnically black and Christian.

Historical Background Capital Khartoum (originally slave market to sell blacks) “Abid”=black people Means slave. -Ruled by Arabs

Historical Background Western Sudan (Darfur) GENERALLY Arab nomadic tribes. (Affiliated with government) Black Agricultural Tribes

Historical Background - History of peaceful coexistence Hatred derives from the hierarchy of ethnicity from British colonial rule. The paler the skin (the more Arabic,) the better.

Historical Background South of Sudan has oil wells North of Sudan has ports to the Red Sea People in the north that exported Southern oil made money and stayed in power.

Historical Background -South complains for lack of benefits. -The South started a rebellion. 1983-2005 South Sudanese War South eventually won 49% of oil revenues

Historical Background Western Sudan (Darfur) The Blacks in the West did not get the benefits since they were in Northern Sudan. The Black tribes started a rebellion. Beginning of the Darfur Crisis (2003)

The Crisis 2003 spring Two rebel movements SLM (Sudanese Liberation Movement) JEM (Justice and Equality Movement) started a campaign against political and economic marginalization of Darfur. The Sudanese government was in the process of negotiations with Southern army SPLMA (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army)

Sudanese government turns to China and gains weapons to take down the rebellion. - Annihilate villages. -Black agricultural tended to be rebel sympathizers.

Plane bombing during night During the day, helicopter + machineguns Janjaweed shot civilians and rape women Burn houses Dig up food stores and use oil to destroy them throw dead bodies on wells.

Desertification Arab herders and black farmers had coexisted for 1000s of years despite tension. The Sahara desert extended 100 km in the last 40 yrs. Arab herders sponsored by the government became Janjaweeds and attacked the Black farmers

Over 400 villages destroyed. Aside from governments vs rebels Bandits and militias -> looting humanitarian aid. Commit sexual crimes. Rebels started to fight amongst each other Leads to more complication

Government stance Avoids serious negotiations with rebel groups. Refused to prosecute crimes against humanity. Expelled humanitarian aid groups 300,000 Darfuri refugees in neighboring chad. 300,000 killed. Janjaweed also attacked the Chad government in April 2006 6 million population. 4.7million is affected somehow.

Ceasefire Agreement N’Djamena in Chad 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA The end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2004 April Ceasefire Agreement N’Djamena in Chad AU sent AMIS (African Union Mission in Sudan) to Darfur 　 Limitation of AU mission May The US sent an investigating commission to Darfur George W Bush acknowledged it as “genocide”

UN Security Council Resolution 1556 2004 July UN Security Council Resolution 1556 UN asked Sudanese government to disarm Arab militias ⇒ UN didn’t specify to disarm Janjaweed ⇒ Sudanese government didn’t disarm it Embargoes on weapons against non government Peace negotiation started Abuja in Nijeria AU took the lead ⇒ The conference didn’t go smoothly

Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2005 January Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) North government – South Sudan Liberation Army(SAL) Sudanese Civil War ended A birth of united government The President : Omar Bashir

Embargoes on weapons against Sudanese government 2005 March UN Resolution 1591 Embargoes on weapons against Sudanese government UN Resolution 1593 UN decided to entrust a ICC with investigating the violation of international humanitarian law and international human rights law in Darfur

Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) Sudanese government – SLA Minnawi 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2006 May Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) Sudanese government – SLA Minnawi (SLA Abdul Wahid al Nur/ JEM refused to join)

(It was suggested by US government since 2005 summer) 2006 May UNSC Resolution 1679 UN decided to shift from AMIS(African Union Mission in Sudan) to UN operation (It was suggested by US government since 2005 summer) ⇒ Sudanese government refused the expand of UN force

UN Secretary General special envoy Eliasson AU special envoy Salim 2006 November Adis Abeba meeting Mediation started Led by : UN Secretary General special envoy Eliasson AU special envoy Salim ⇒ both of them retired in 2008 June Bassole,ex Foreign Minister of Burkina Faso took over

Darfur AU/UN mission UNAMID 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2007 June Sudanese government agreed to AU/UN hybrid operation UNSC Resolution 1769 Darfur AU/UN mission UNAMID ・The protection of civilians ・Monitoring and verifying implementation of agreement ・Contribution to the promotion of human rights and law ・Monitoring and reporting the situation along the borders with Chad and Central Africa ※　(Bashir sent a letter to Kofi Annan. Time-buying tactic?)

Peace negotiation Arusha in Tanzania 2007 August Peace negotiation Arusha in Tanzania 2007 October Peace negotiation Sirte in Libya SLA Abdul Wahid al Nul /JEM didn’y participate No ceasefire agreement

Beijing Summer Olimpics Criticism for Chinese reaction to Darfur 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for president Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2008 August Beijing Summer Olimpics Criticism for Chinese reaction to Darfur by: ・Alan Wolfe (US republican) ・Segolene Royal (candidate of French President) ・Steven Spielberg (he turned down the position of art adviser of Olimpics )

ICC promulgated a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for president Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2009 March ICC promulgated a warrant for President Bashir’s arrest ⇒ Sudanese government refused ⇒ Govenmet expeled 13 NGOs from Sudan 2010 February Framework agreement for settelment f Sudan conflict Sudanese government - JEM JEM left

South Sudan Referendum Decided South Sudan’s independence 2003 Darfur Conflict broke out 2004 AU sent AMIS 2005 CPA the end of Sudanese Civil War 2006 DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) 2007 AU/UN hybrid operation started 2008 2009 ICC a warrant for president Bashir’s arrest 2010 2011 Independence of South Sudan 2011 January South Sudan Referendum Decided South Sudan’s independence 2011 July Republic of South Sudan

Failures of the Int’l Community Peacekeeping Operations AMIS-African Union Mission in Sudan (AU) 2004   Only multilateral organization willing to risk soldiers with consent of Sudanese regime. Inexperienced in finances and military defense matters. Deployed after heaviest phase of killing was over.

Peacekeeping Operations UNAMID- United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UN+AU) Replaced underequipped and underfunded African union peacekeeping mission in Darfur. Resolution 1769. operationalized 2008

Peacekeeping Operations Did not have the mandate to proactively protect civilians Dependent on funding from EU and US UNAMID- leadership issues

Peacekeeping Operations There is no peace in Darfur so there cannot be peacekeeping. Romeo Dallaire argued , “the clear intent of the resolution was . . . civilian protection. . .the question is what peacekeepers can realistically do in such a fragile political environment”

Failures of the Int’l Community ICC Arrest warrant 2006 Thirteen NGOs were expelled. Less information of the crisis came out because NGOs feared being expelled for speaking out.

Failures of the Int’l Community Darfur Peace Agreement 2006 Failure in disarming the Janjaweed after resolution 1556 and 1564. Only one rebel faction joined. SLA Minawi (JEM and SLA AbdulWahid didn’t) The Darfur rebellion fractured into more than 15 groups along tribal lines after DPA

Failures of Human Rights Council Dec 2006- HRC sent the High Level Mission to assess human rights situation. Sudan refused to grant access to HLM . Recommendations to Sudan Take all necessary measures to prevent attacks on civilians regular police patrols to refugee and IDP camps

Failures of the Int’l Society Possibilities of Intervention -UNSC has authorized military intervention without consent of the government -UN has intervened in internal conflicts as threats to international peace -Groups like Ecowas or NATO have ignored authorization from SC as well - Already an intervention in South of Sudan

The R2P Framework -First real case of R2P -R2P was unable to free itself from the political dynamics of the international community for the Darfur Crisis. -Advocates of R2P were not able to agree on an effective strategy.

-Russia and China: Oil and arms exports Chechnya, Tibet… -USA War on Terror Afghanistan and Iraq Intelligence from Sudan -Arabs Opposed Western-led intervention in North Africa -Threats to peace of Southern Sudan -Towards the fear of Sudan blocking humanitarian aid

R2P overestimates norm of intervention until 2005 Many countries didn’t believe that the Responsibility to Protect fell to the Security Council Arabs , Africans -> AU Only Romania and Philippines argued Security Council to be primarily responsible.

Ambiguities of the R2P Framework How should civilians be protected? Who does the responsibility fall to?

Wheeler’s criteria ○ × Supreme humanitarian emergency Necessity/Last Resort × Proportionality Positive Humanitarian Outcome Humanitarian Motives Humanitarian Justification Legality Selectivity

Supreme humanitarian emergency 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 ○ - Population in Darfur 6 million 4.7 million is affected by Darfur Conflict some how ＝more than ¾ - Around 400,000 people were killed - Millions of refugees - Is the worst humanitarian case in 21st century Supreme humanitarian emergency

Does peace keeping work in Darfur? Necessity/Last Resort 　　× - Not enough military force was sent to stop the conflict and help the civilians × - AU in 2004, 150 soldiers ⇒ in 2005, 7000 soldiers - UNAMID in 2009, 16000 soldiers (＝ the largest scale in 21st century) BUT there is no effective peace agreement in Darfur (DPA in 2006 did not work) Does peace keeping work in Darfur? Necessity/Last Resort

Positive Humanitarian outcome 　　　　 × - Still the conflict lasts in Darfur - In 2011 Independence of South Sudan ⇒　Since then the conflict became worse - No effective peace agreement in Darfur (DPA in 2006 is not important because of the absence of some militia groups) - Arrest warrant to president Bashir in 2009, but still not arrested - NGOs in Darfur release less information, because they are afraid of being expelled Positive Humanitarian outcome

- International society didn’t want to repeat the disaster like Rwanda ○ - International society didn’t want to repeat the disaster like Rwanda - AU wanted to solve the problem in Africa, and help Africans Humanitarian Motives

○ - According to the UN Charter, humanitarian intervention is not permitted without UNSC’s resolution ⇔　BUT in 1999 an aerial bombardment by NATO in Serbia without UNSC’s resolution - Non intervention State sovereignty, self-determination should be respected ⇔ BUT in humanitarian intervention to Rwanda in WHY NOT IN DARFUR?

Hundred of thousands of refugees → Chad ○ According the UN charter, if there’s a threat to the stability of the international society, intervention is allowed. Hundred of thousands of refugees →　Chad Legality

○ - No fact that intervention was done to protect only government / anti-government groups - US’s reverse selectivity US China ⇔　ICC BUT US decided to use ICC to do something for Darfur

Situation Today in Darfur The Conflict still lasts in Darfur According to the Human Rights Watch’s report, since 2010 December, serious abuse has increased Government attacks people who are related to anti government groups ⇒　More than 70,000 people had to shelter -attack, aerial bombing to the villages -residents have been killed -house have been razed -massive looting has taken place -cutting the road to the neighbor village

Situation Today in Darfur Minni Minawi Leader of SLA (Sudanese Liberation Army) Sighned DPA (Darfur Peace Agreement) in 2006 2007~2010 December Governmental presidental adviser Chairperson of the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority ⇒ dismissed, back to Juba (capital of South Sudan) takes p arms again Because of the absence of SLA Abdul Wahid al Nur/ JEM DPA did not work, but now DPA does not mean anything