Community Engagement and Climate Change Adaptation Anna Beswick SCCIP Public Sector Officer Graham Esson Perth & Kinross Council

SCCIP Community engagement Low Carbon Scotland: Public Engagement Strategy Action 23: ‘SCCIP will develop a community engagement programme to increase awareness of the impacts of climate change and improve the capacity of communities to adapt to the impacts. The programme will be developed in 2011 and implemented in 2011 and 2012’.

Piloting community engagement Community engagement and climate change adaptation Piloting a three phased approach to community engagement in partnership with Perth and Kinross Council. Identifying vulnerability to climate change Pilot community workshop to be developed in partnership with The Highland Council. Climate Change Impacts and vulnerable communities Working with SCVO to develop a pilot workshop.

Perth and Kinross pilot project Three workshops carried out over three weeks. Workshop 1:Exploring Community characteristics and quality of life What do participants value about their community? What challenges do different sectors of the community face?

Perth and Kinross pilot project Workshop 2: Climate change and local impacts Recent past changes in climate Future projected changes in climate Discussing community impacts Workshop 3: Adaptation planning and action Review of previous two sessions Discussion on community responses to climate change impacts

Project outputs Community engagement resources Presentations Workshop activities Advice on logistics Carse of Gowrie workshop report Outputs will feed in to Tayplan consultation Available as a case study on SCCIP website

SCCIP Public Sector Officer More information Anna Beswick SCCIP Public Sector Officer anna@sniffer.org.uk www.sccip.org.uk

Perth and Kinross pilot project The environmental issues Climate change in TAYplan area Links with the Local Development Plan Questions

The challenge Climate change is a challenge that affects us all. We all need to start adapting our systems, assets, services and management approaches to this challenge. The work we are doing in partnership with SCCIP is a continuation of work we started with our LCLIP. Climate change is a challenge that affects us all. Its implications are profoundly important not only for Perth & Kinross, but for the country and the world in general. These implications will become more severe over time and we all need to start adapting our systems, assets, services and management approaches to this challenge. Recognising this, some 2 years ago, the Council & Community Planning Partners undertook a LCLIP to look at what we may face and, most importantly, look at what needs to be done to tackle the predicted impacts. The work we are doing in partnership with SCCIP is a continuation of that work.

What’s its use We intend the study to provide a catalyst and focus for adaptation action throughout the Council area. It assesses future climate change in the Carse of Gowrie to 2050, investigates likely impacts on a range of sectors, and seeks to develop thematic and overarching adaptation measures to help increase our resilience.

TAYplan in context 20 April 2017 11 9% of Scottish population at just over 475,000 people live in TAYplan area (2008) TAYplan population grew over last decade, mostly in Perth and Kinross Angus and North Fife populations grew slightly Dundee population fell over last decade but this has considerably slowed recently Migration has been the key driver of population change 20 April 2017 11

The environment Biodiversity 45,983 ha of Ancient and semi-natural woodland 26 SAC sites (44,316 ha), 14 SPA sites (32,705 ha), 183 SSSIs (77,982 ha), 9 Ramsar Sites (4,622 ha), 8 National Nature Reserves (8,281 ha) Population 475,189 people (GROS mid-year estimate 2008) Population density 42.8 people/sq km (Scottish average 68 people /sq km) Human health 18.7 % of population over 65 (higher than Scottish average) Life expectancy is significantly better than Scottish average (except for Dundee where it is lower) Geology, Soils and Minerals High proportion of undisturbed soils (only 22.7% cultivated) 93,872 ha of prime agricultural land 465 ha vacant /derelict land Water 55 % of rivers and streams classified as at risk 120 sq km standing waters 5,933 ha affected by fluvial flooding 2,124 ha affected by coastal flooding Air Relatively low atmospheric pollution 3 air quality management areas due to road traffic (Dundee, Perth and Bonnygate-Cupar) Climatic factors Annual precipitation over 1500 mm on summits and under 700 mm along coasts of Angus and Fife Average annual snow cover 100 days on summits and 20 days on low ground Mean July maximum 16 - 19o C Material assets 280,000 tonnes of municipal waste 33 % recycled

Development pressure 20 April 2017 13

Environmental sensitivities 20 April 2017 14

Sensitivities & development pressure 20 April 2017 15

Problems and issues Climatic factors Problem: The vulnerability of parts of the area to increased flooding, and sea level rises as a result of climate change. Particularly sensitive areas include flood plains, river corridors and coastal areas. Implication: It should also seek to show leadership to the wider community and direct development away from areas of flood risk Material Assets Problem: The proper management of infrastructure and conservation of resources is central to the TAYplan's aim of achieving sustainable development and protecting the environment. Implication: Reducing the consumption of resources through the procurement of goods and services and work towards increasing the recycling of all waste in the area. Cultural Heritage Problem: Impact of increased pressure for inappropriate development on sites of historical importance. Promoting rural environments for tourism whilst maintaining their character. Implication: The Strategic Development Plan should support the protection and enhancement of the areas cultural heritage. Landscape Problem: Increased pressure from development resulting in an incremental adverse impact on the landscape, both designated sites and the wider landscapes. Implication: The Strategic Development Plan should support the principles of the European Landscape Convention and seek to protect and enhance all landscapes.

Objectives To reduce emissions of greenhouse gases Will it minimise emissions of greenhouse gases? Will it help The TAYplan area meet its emission targets? To ensure climate change adaptation Will it avoid exacerbating the impacts of climate change? Will it manage existing flood risks appropriately and avoid new flood risks? Will it ensure adaptation to the effects of climate change? The preferred approach for evaluating the effects of the SDP is one that would blend what are often considered to be three different approaches, these are: Objectives-led approach which will involve using the SEA objectives in Table 4.1 and the accompanying sub-criteria, against which the plan will be tested Constraints mapping which will focus on the spatial characteristics of the TAYplan area in environmental terms, defined through a series of maps showing key environmental constraints to development Thematic analysis, which will assist in telling the ‘story’ of how the Strategic Development Plan has evolved to date and particularly how the impacts of the finalised Strategic Development Plan may differ from those of the Draft Plan by using the SEA questions in table 5.1. The approach will be centred on the use of SEA objectives to test any Strategic Development Plan Policies. The Spatial Strategy will be assessed by using the environmental constraints maps to identify any areas of potential conflict or where actions could be taken to enhance the environment. Each of the SEA topics is described in the environmental baseline as a summary constraints map, and these will also be combined to undertake the assessment of spatial cumulative and synergistic effects.

Strategy option A 20 April 2017 18

The benefits To realise the opportunities, and also to minimise the impacts of climate change on the area we need to: Work in partnership Take a long term perspective Take a strategic perspective Continue to improve the evidence base Communicate and involve

What do we know Climate change is likely to raise average temperatures, change patterns of rainfall and lead to rising sea levels. These changes will have a direct impact on Perth and Kinross, Dundee, Angus and North and East Fife. Equally important, however, will be the way in which we respond to climate change – by adapting to the changing climate and through measures to reduce carbon emissions.

Sea level rise and flooding Now almost ten years old but gives an idea of those areas that are likely to be affected by climate change and in particular rising sea levels. What it doesn’t take account of are storm surges etc 20 April 2017 21

Cause and effects - Carse of Gowrie For TAYplan agriculture, the overall effects of impacts of climate change are estimated to be advantageous. Changes in cultivation practice can be implemented at short notice and production is expected to grow with rising temperature,  CO2 concentrations and a longer growing season. But rising sea levels may mean less land in Carse of Gowrie However, this could also bring about an increased and altered need for plant protection based on altered disease and insect patterns and an increased need for fertilizer and the consequent risk of runoff into the water. Greater winter precipitation will increase the risk of nitrogen and phosphorus leaching into the aquatic environment and combined with higher water temperatures, this could mean a greater risk of oxygen depletion. Increased winter precipitation and rising water levels will in some places cause flooding or such high ground water levels that agricultural exploitation may be difficult to maintain. This may be the case along a number of fjords and watercourses. Higher summer temperatures and longer periods of drought may increase the need for irrigation of sandy soils, which may affect the flow in watercourses. Short term adaptation can optimize production under given conditions. Long term adaptation is expected to involve changes in agriculture's structure, technology and land use, irrigation systems, etc, as well as development and adaptation of new species and types of crops. Dissemination of the current knowledge on the nature and extent of climate changes for both the agricultural business and the associated research and consulting sector such as the administrative/political level will be important, so that relevant climate change adaptation measures can be incorporated in ongoing adaptation and regulations in the sector. It is important that research, development and consulting within the sector include awareness that changes in the basic climatic conditions mean that older data and experience should be used with caution. Climate change and increased CO2 content in the atmosphere up to 2050 are expected to increase the yield level of many agricultural crops by 10–15%. However, there will probably also be increased costs for fertilizer and pesticides. Increased yields may also be less than expected as a result of the need for increased restrictions on use of fertilizers and pesticides out of concern for nature and the aquatic environment. There may also be restrictions on cultivation of low-lying areas and on irrigation in dry summers, which will reduce the advantages in these areas. 20 April 2017 22

Sea level rise and flooding Now almost ten years old but gives an idea of those areas that are likely to be affected by climate change and in particular rising sea levels. What it doesn’t take account of are storm surges etc 20 April 2017 23

Sea level rise and flooding Now almost ten years old but gives an idea of those areas that are likely to be affected by climate change and in particular rising sea levels. What it doesn’t take account of are storm surges etc 24

Problems and issues It is important that the LDP takes into account those areas which are already at risk from the effects of climate change in order to avoid an exacerbation of the problems in these areas. Potential future migration of the population and planning for that higher growth rate Consideration given to the need for a managed retreat of development in the Carse of Gowrie area where appropriate. Potential of renewable energy technologies Creating sustainable communities Maximising resource use (including the release of greenfield sites) and energy efficiency Food security

Coordination and communication Lack of coordination, responsibility and communication Due to the number of stakeholders, the cross sectoral nature of many of the issues, and potentially competing objectives between stakeholders, there is a strong role for coordination at the regional and sub-regional or sectoral/thematic level. Lack of communications, integration and engagement. Poor levels of communication about climate change challenges to many sectors within Perth & Kinross. Low levels of information sharing between different sectors are of concern. Making the case to drive adaptive action.

Communicate and involve Raise awareness of likely direct impacts of climate change across Perth and Kinross, and understanding of the need for adaptation Provide opportunities for people to identify those parts of their area and qualities that are of greatest importance and which should be protected as appropriate Create opportunities for stakeholders and local communities to input to adaptation and development plan strategies

Taking a strategic perspective One of the risks is that we take an incremental and uncoordinated approach to adaptation and mitigation This could result in a gradual, but significant negative impact on the area A more strategic approach will help identify areas where there should be an emphasis on solutions Identify areas less sensitive to change Identify opportunities to use adaptation and mitigation to enhance, restore or create new landscapes, biodiversity or strengthen the economy

In conclusion Wider education and engagement of stakeholders and the public to ensure adaptive capacity is built in Stronger engagement facilitated through sectoral groups, established along the lines of this study or within existing structures These will help ensure climate change impacts and adaptation measures are made relevant to all sectors Can ensure appropriate communication and information sharing Contributing to progressing regional adaptation plan

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