The Reanalysis of Three Catastrophic Hurricanes that Impacted Florida During the 1920’s The Reanalysis of Three Catastrophic Hurricanes that Impacted Florida During the 1920’s Steve Feuer, Chris Landsea, Jamese Sims, and Lenworth Woolcock NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division Miami, Florida Acknowledgements: NOAA/OGP grant (GC02-093)

OUTLINE Background on the HURDAT reanalysis project Background on the HURDAT reanalysis project Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s: Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s: ► 1921 Tampa Bay ► 1926 Great Miami ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe)OUTLINE Background on the HURDAT reanalysis project Background on the HURDAT reanalysis project Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s: Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s: ► 1921 Tampa Bay ► 1926 Great Miami ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe)

HURDAT REANALYSIS PROJECT Goal is to improve the quality of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) original North Atlantic best track and intensity database (HURDAT) from 1851 to the present. By employing consistent analysis methods and modern interpretations, the project is helping to: – correct several errors and biases – determine better landfall attributes – provide additional track and intensity data for TCs in the database (Landsea et al. 2002). Previously unknown TCs are also identified after thorough inspection of historical meteorological records and accounts and are considered as candidate storms to be added to HURDAT. Recommended changes are submitted to the NHC Best Track Change Committee for approval.

provide meteorological community, emergency managers, engineers, and government officials with a high-quality historical database of TC track and intensity data every 6 hours aid in development and verification of operational forecasts and models document climate studies, such as long-term trends (e.g., global warming), multidecadal activity, seasonal forecasts, etc. set building code standards and insurance rates for coastal communities provide an understanding of TC variability Applications of HURDAT

Data Sources for the Reanalysis of the 1920’s PRIMARY marine and land station observations from the Historical Weather Map series ship observations included in COADS individual surface station records (Original Monthly Records) archived ship reports and logs from NCDC articles and records published in Monthly Weather Review SUPPLEMENTARY books with historical retrospectives technical memoranda journalistic accounts

Historical Weather Map Series 12 UTC 25 October UTC 25 October 1921

Using Ship Observations to Estimate the Hurricane’sLocation Using Ship Observations to Estimate the Hurricane’sLocation

Beaufort Knots Description Number 0 < 1 Calm Light air Light breeze Gentle breeze Moderate breeze Fresh breeze Strong breeze Near gale Gale Strong gale Storm Violent storm 12 > 63 Hurricane The Beaufort Scale

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale Category Wind Speed (knots)

1) GLFMEX Vmax(kt) = *(1013-p)** n = 664; r = ) <25N Vmax(kt) = *(1013-p)** n =1033; r = ) 25-35N Vmax(kt) = *(1013-p)** n = 922; r = ) 35-45N Vmax(kt) = *(1013-p)** n = 492; r = ) For Kraft Vmax(kt) = *(1013-p)** n = 13; r = ?? P(MB) GLFMEX <25N 25-35N 35-45N KRAFT P(MB) P(IN) Estimating the Central Pressure: (Pr – Pc) / (Pe – Pc) = exp(-RMW/R) Atlantic Pressure-Wind Relationships

(Picture from: "Florida's Hurricane History", by Jay Barnes ) HURDAT Reanalysis Status 1911 through 1914 reanalysis submitted to NHC remainder of 1910’s, 1920’s and 1930’s currently being reanalyzed pre-reconnaissance era completed by summer 2005

1921 HURRICANE SEASON (REVISED) Storm # Dates Original Peak Intensity Revised Peak Intensity Track Revisions Intensity Revisions Significant Storm History Revisions 1 1 Jun kt/Cat kt/Cat. 1 Major Genesis delayed 1 day 2 2 Sep kt/Cat. 1 Major Genesis 2 days earlier 3 3 Sep kt/Cat kt/Cat. 3 Major Genesis 2 days earlier ET additional day Genesis 2 days earlier ET additional day 4 4 Sep kt/TS 80 kt/Cat. 1 Major Genesis 2 days earlier 5 5 Sep kt/TS New TC (from front) 6 6 Oct kt/TS 60 kt/TS Major Genesis 1 day early 7 - Tampa Bay Oct kt/Cat kt/Cat. 4 Minor Major ET delayed by 2 days Storm #DatesOriginal Peak Intensity Revised Peak Intensity Track Revisions Intensity Revisions Significant Storm History Revisions Jun. 85 kt/Cat. 280 kt/Cat. 1Major Genesis delayed 1 day 24-8 Sep. 70 kt/Cat. 1 Major Genesis 2 days earlier Sep. 105 kt/Cat kt/Cat. 3Major Genesis 2 days earlier ET additional day Sep. 60 kt/TS80 kt/Cat. 1Major Genesis 2 days earlier Sep kt/TS New TC (from front) Oct. 50 kt/TS60 kt/TSMajor Genesis 1 day early 7 - Tampa Bay Oct. 120 kt/Cat 4120 kt/Cat. 4MinorMajorET delayed by 2 days

#/Date Time Lat. Lon. Max. S-S RMW Cent. Envir. Rad. States/Areas Wind Cat. Press. Press. OCI Affected 1-6/22/ Z 28.6N 95.9W 80kt 1 17nmi 980mb 1011mb 215nmi BTX1,CTX1 7-10/25/ Z 27.9N 82.8W 110kt 3 18nmi 952mb 1009mb 375nmi BFL3,AFL2,DFL U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes

1921 TAMPA BAY HURRICANE formed as TD on 20 October in vicinity of persistent surface trough in the SW Caribbean intensified into a hurricane early on the 22nd as it tracked steadily NNW around the western periphery of a large anticyclone reached peak intensity of a Category 4 on the 23rd and then began to turn to the north as ridge over SE U.S. started to weaken turned to the NNE and then NE and weakened slightly to a high-end Category 3 storm before making landfall at Tarpon Springs during the afternoon on the 25th crossed central FL and moved offshore at Ponce de Leon Inlet early on the 26 th as a substantially weaker Category 1 storm moved to the east then to the ENE during the next three days, weakened to a TS, and was absorbed by a large extratropical system on the 30th

Impacts of 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane worst hurricane to affect Tampa Bay region in 70 years damage mainly from high storm surge and both coastal and inland flooding storm tide of 3.2 m (10.5 ft.) reported in Tampa on the 25th, which was the highest since the flood of 1848 Tampa U.S. Weather Bureau office reported over 215 mm (8.5 in.) nearly continuously from the 23rd-26th $3M losses from structural damage to residences, commercial buildings, ships, ports, marinas, piers, bridges, agricultural interests, citrus crops, and public infrastructure and property total number of fatalities is at least eight deaths hurricane likely to cause around $4B in damage today due to vastly increased population and development

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

Raw Data (significant) for Tampa Bay Hurricane

Track and Surface Observations of the Tampa Bay Hurricane Near Landfall

/20/1921 M=11 6 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /20/1921 M=11 7 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3 * /20* * * * /20* * * * *** ** ** *** ** *** ** /21* * * * /21* * * * *** ** *** ** *** *** *** /22* * * * /22* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /23* * * * /23* * * * *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /24* * * * /24* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /25* * * * /25* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /20/1921 M=11 6 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /20/1921 M=11 7 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3 * /20* * * * /20* * * * *** ** ** *** ** *** ** /21* * * * /21* * * * *** ** *** ** *** *** *** /22* * * * /22* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /23* * * * /23* * * * *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /24* * * * /24* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** /25* * * * /25* * * * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Revised “Best Track” Data (HURDAT) for Tampa Bay Hurricane

“October 23: HWM indicates a closed low of at most 995 mb at 20N, 84.5W. HURDAT listed this as a Category 2 hurricane at 20.2N, 84.8W at 12 UTC. The MWR "Summary of the Hurricanes of 1919, 1920, and 1921" shows a center at 20N, 85.5W (a.m.). The MWR Tracks of Lows indicates a center at 20N, 85W (a.m.) and 21.5N, 85W (p.m.). Available observations suggest that the MWR "Summary" position is more accurate than HURDAT's estimate. Ship highlights: Calm and 941 mb at 27.5N, 85.6W at ~22 UTC (MWR); 50 kt reported three times (MWR and COA).” Metadata File for the Tampa Bay Hurricane Track – Example of One Day

Metadata File for the Tampa Bay Hurricane Intensity – Example at Landfall “At landfall, the central pressure of 952 mb measured in Tarpon Springs between 1940 and 2040 UTC on the 25th suggests winds of 108 kt from the Gulf of Mexico pressure- wind relationship. Ho et al. analyzed a landfall position at 27.9°N, 82.8°W also with a 952 mb central pressure and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 33 km. This RMW value is close to average for the nominal latitude and central pressure (Vickery et al. 2000). Thus 110 kt was assigned for the landfall intensity, making it a high-end Category 3 hurricane. This is in agreement with the HURDAT and Jarrell et al. The highest observed wind at Tampa was 59 kt at 1918 UTC, which converts to 49 kt after adjustment.”

Landfall of 2004 Hurricane Charley (Map courtesy of National Weather Service Tampa Bay Forecast Office) Landfall of 2004 Hurricane Charley (Map courtesy of National Weather Service Tampa Bay Forecast Office)

1921 HURRICANE Category 3 storm at landfall Landfall at Tarpon Springs at 1940 UTC Minimum central pressure of 952 mb measured by barometer of Dr. A. P. Albaugh (Bowie 1921) Estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt using Gulf pressure-wind relationship Estimated RMW of ~18 nmi Moving 40º at 9 kt Underwent rapid intensification h prior to landfall; stayed at Cat. 4 intensity for nearly two days before weakening to a strong Cat. 3 at landfall Storm tides of up to 10.5’ at Tampa and extensive coastal flooding/storm surge and rainfall throughout Tampa Bay region and the entire Southwest Coast of Florida (Bowie 1921) CHARLEY Category 4 storm at landfall Landfall in Charlotte Harbor at 2035 UTC Minimum central pressure of 941 mb measure by dropsonde from AFRES WC-130 aircraft Estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 kt using reduction algorithm of flight-level winds Estimated RWM of ≤ 5 nmi Moving 15º at 19 kt Cat. 2 intensity prior to passage over Cuba about 24 h prior to landfall; did not experience rapid intensification to Cat. 4 until < 6 h prior to landfall Storm tides of 7’ in Charlotte County and 8’ in Lee County—area impacted by storm surge is small and rainfall was only 3-5”, confined to a radius of 20 nmi from the center (NWS TBW) 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane vs Charley

North (Upper) Captiva Island

11 storms in original HURDAT; 9 recommended to be retained after reanalysis 5 landfalling storms –Storm 1: Cat 2 - Florida, Cat 1 - Puerto Rico –Storm 3: Cat 3 - Louisiana –Storm 6: Cat 4 - Florida (SE), Cat 3 - Florida (SW) Cat 3 - Florida (NW), Cat 3 - Alabama, Cat 1 - Mississippi (new) –Storm 7: Tropical Storm - Cuba –Storm 10: Cat 4 - Cuba, Cat 3 - Bermuda 5 storms occurred during September 1926 HURRICANE SEASON

formed as TD in tropical Central Atlantic during the afternoon of 11 September from an easterly wave intensified into a hurricane during the afternoon on the 14th as it meandered on a WNW - NW track passed north of Puerto Rico and became a major hurricane by 00 UTC on the 16th, intensifying into a Category 4 storm later during the day and reaching a peak intensity of 125 kt by the evening maintained same intensity for the next 36 h as it moved WNW over the Turks Islands and the Bahamas--center passed nearly over Grand Turk and very close to Nassau (Mitchell 1926) made landfall in Miami just after 11 UTC on the 18th, in which the wind center appeared to cross just south of downtown--minimum central pressure of 933 mb was recorded crossed the Everglades and exited into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 storm at 2030 UTC at Punta Rassa, which recorded a minimum central pressure of 950 mb turned to the NW and quickly re-strengthened back into a Category 3 storm by 00 UTC on the 19th reached second peak intensity of 110 kt 24 h later and maintained this intensity before hooking left, decelerating, and making a second U.S. landfall at Perdido Beach, AL near FL/AL border at 2030 UTC on the 20th tracked west right along the Gulf coast, decreasing in intensity but still maintaining hurricane strength through 15 UTC on the 21st when it finally went inland for good at Bay St. Louis, MS weakened to a TS and then a depression over southern LA and finally dissipated near the LA/TX border by the morning of the 22nd 1926 GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE

total number of fatalities was at least 262 in Miami and the surrounding area and an estimated 6,381 people were injured storm greatly affected other parts of the state, particularly the Panhandle, including an estimated 18,000 families $ M losses resulted from wind, rain, and storm surge damage storm surge was measured at 11.7’ above mean low water along Biscayne Blvd. and estimated as high as ’ in Coconut Grove—also high further up East Coast and along Gulf Coast Impacts of 1926 Great Miami Hurricane

1926 Great Miami Hurricane

/11/1926 M=12 6 SNBR= 537 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /11* * * * /12* * * * /13* * * * /14* * * * /15* * * * /16* * * * /17* * * * /18* * * * /19* * * * /20* * * * /21* * * * /22* * * * HRCFL4BFL3AFL3 AL3 MS /11/1926 M=12 6 SNBR= 537 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /11* * * * /12* * * * /13* * * * /14* * * * /15* * * * /16* * * * /17* * * * /18* * * * /19* * * * /20* * * * /21* * * * /22* * * * HRCFL4BFL3AFL3 AL3 MS1 Revised HURDAT for Great Miami Hurricane

quickly formed as a TD and then became a TS shortly after emerging as an easterly wave off of Africa on 6 October tracked just south of due west to the south of the Cape Verde Islands and then mostly west at a steady pace over the next few days reached hurricane strength during the afternoon of the 10th in the tropical Central Atlantic based on observations of three ships became a major hurricane by 00 UTC on the 12th and intensified to Category 4 status in the afternoon before passing over Guadeloupe continued to intensify as it moved WNW near the Virgin Islands and made landfall as a Category 5 storm at 1830 UTC on the 13th moved over the island the next 7 h with very heavy rainfall and exited back into the Atlantic as a 120 kt Category 3 storm early on the 14th tracked NW over Bahamas and made landfall at West Palm Beach at 00 UTC on the 17th as a strong Category 4 storm moved over Lake Okeechobee and then recurved east of Tampa, weakening to Category 1 storm moved NNE just west of Jacksonville and then back over the Atlantic on morning of the 18th, passing east of Savannah, reintensifying slightly but still at Category 1 strength made second U.S. landfall over Charleston around 12 UTC on the 18th and tracked inland near the coast, weakening to a tropical storm around Myrtle Beach in the evening turned north and then NNW and continued up into VA, MD, and PA, where it became extratropical on the 20th 1928 OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane Puerto Rico 300 fatalities $50 M in damages (several billion today) over 25” rainfall in some areas of the island 12 h of hurricane force winds were observed in San Juan 936 mb recorded in Guayama (might not be central pressure) 139 kt 1-min winds observed at San Juan (with new 3 cup anemometer but was 25 nmi from center – may not be 10 m wind and may have had poor exposure) originally listed in HURDAT as Category 5 (140 kt) – may need to be downgraded

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane Florida 1836 fatalities officially (2500 estimate suggested by Rusty Pfost [BAMS 2003] based upon new books by Eliot Kleinberg [Black Cloud] and Robert Mykle [Killer ‘Cane]) $25 M in damages ($15-20 billion today) hurricane warnings issued at 1530 UTC on the 16th even though pressure at West Palm Beach was already 997 mb first gale observed at Miami at 19 UTC on the 16th (WPB ~1-2 hr earlier) Landfall at West Palm Beach at 00 UTC on the 17th with 929 mb pressure storm tide 10’ north of Palm Beach lake surge of 10-15’ from Lake Okeechobee originally listed in HURDAT as Category 4 (130 kt)

1928 Okeechobee Hurricane

/06/1928 M=16 4 SNBR= 553 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /06* * * * /07* * * * /08* * * * /09* * * * /10* * * * /11* * * * /12* * * * /13* * * * /14* * * * /15* * * * /16* * * * /17* * * * /18* * * * /19* * * * /20E E E E /21E * * * HRCFL4BFL3AFL1DFL1 GA1 SC /06/1928 M=16 4 SNBR= 553 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS= /06* * * * /07* * * * /08* * * * /09* * * * /10* * * * /11* * * * /12* * * * /13* * * * /14* * * * /15* * * * /16* * * * /17* * * * /18* * * * /19* * * * /20E E E E /21E * * * HRCFL4BFL3AFL1DFL1 GA1 SC1 Revised HURDAT for Okeechobee Hurricane

SUMMARYSUMMARY StormDatesOriginal Peak Intensity Revised Peak Intensity Track Revisions Intensity Revisions Genesis/ Decay U.S. Impact Tampa Bay Oct kt Cat kt Cat. 4 MinorMajorET delayed 2 days FL (3 regions) Great Miami Sept kt Cat kt Cat. 4 Major No Changes FL (3regions), AL, MS Okee- chobee/ San Felipe 6-21 Sept kt Cat kt Cat. 5 MinorMajorGenesis 12 h earlier; Decay 6 h later; ET 6 h earlier FL (4 regions), GA, SC