NCEP Operational Wave Guidance during Hurricane Sandy October 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

NCEP Operational Wave Guidance during Hurricane Sandy October 2012

Operational Wave Models at NCEP The following wave model systems are operational at NCEP – Global, Deterministic Multi_1: Global wave model, driven by GFS Multi_2: Hurricane wave model, driven by a GFS/GFDL wind blend – Global, Ensemble MENS: Global wave ensemble model driven by GEFS NFCENS: Combined NCEP/FNMOC wave ensemble product – Super-ensemble combining NCEP and FNMOC wave ensemble wave heights – Great Lakes, Deterministic NAM driven wave model system NDFD driven wave model system A EMC-development parallel wave model (this is an upgrade of wave physics for the Great Lakes and has been approved for transition to operations, as soon as the schedule makes it feasible).

NCEP Wave Model Guidance Comparison are made against buoys – East of Cape Hatteras – South of Cape Hatters – East of Delaware Bay – East of New York Harbor – South Lake Michigan – South Lake Huron Spatial fields of modeled wave heights are provided for reference Definitions of symbols and colors are indicated in the slide notes for each slide

Buoys used for Guidance Validation

Buoy (E Cape Hateras), Deterministic

Buoy (E Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

Buoy (S Cape Hateras), Deterministic

Buoy (S Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

Buoy (E Delaware Bay), Determinisitc

Buoy (E New York Harbor), Deterministic

Buoy (E NY Harbor), Wave Ensembles

Buoys & (Great Lakes)

Spatial Hs maps Spatial fields of modeled wave heights, types of plots – Maximum wave-height swath (from wave ensembles), give an integrated view of maximum predicted waves – Probabilities for wave heights larger than 7m (from wave ensembles) – Spatial fields of wave heights from deterministic models

Wave Ensembles, Max wave-height swath

Wave Ensembles, Swath of P(Hs > 7m)

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven