Meat Industry Ireland Presentation by Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture 4 th March,
Overview Snapshot of where we are Beef Industry performance over the last decade Current market situation Market specifications Young bulls Real threats & challenges Conclusions 2
Snapshot – a lot done under FH % increase in finished cattle price over last 4 years Additional €1.5 billion to Irish beef farmers 101% of EU male cattle price / 107% of ‘all-category’ EU price 3 rd highest steer/cow price; 5 th highest heifer price €2.1 bn beef exports in 2013 (+10%) Irish beef exports have increased by almost 35% since 2010 Moved from 75% to 87% QA coverage 3
+5% +60% +1% Irish Beef Exports ,000 tonnes +4% €2.1bn +10% Ireland exporting 90% of beef output 4
Irish Beef Sector Performance of the last decade 5
Irish beef listed with more retailers than beef from any other origin
Sales of Irish beef to Retail (‘000 tonnes cwe) Source: Bord Bia 7
Irish R3 Steer Prices, 2001 to date (c/kg) Source: Dept. of Agriculture Cattle price up from €3/kg in 2010 to €4+/kg 8
Performance of Irish Cattle Price R3 steers c/kg excl VAT 2010: €2.91/kg 2011: €3.44/kg 2012: €3.86/kg 2013: €4.07/kg 9
Current Market Situation Production, Consumption, Prices 10
Market Overview Consumption under pressure – weaker consumer spending power Many key export markets in recession No significant promotional activity in beef category - beef relatively expensive compared with chicken & pork; Manufacturing beef trade weak Significant volumes of additional pork on EU market due to Russia ban Significant stock levels across Industry – product not moving at present Irish cattle slaughterings up 7% Production up in EU UK prices falling since October – only starting to stabilise now 11
GB Cattle Prices 12
EU beef production trend % N/C. +0.8% +2.6% +7% +3%-1% +1.0% Source: EU working beef forecasting group EU beef production declined by 2.2% in A recovery in production of 1.1% is forecast for
Source: EU working beef forecasting group Beef consumption decline in % 14
Retail sales of beef throughout EU Italy (Jan to Dec) Volume : -3.7% Average price -2% Spain (Jan to Dec) Volume : -4% Av Price +2% Germany (Jan to Dec) Volume : -1.5% Average Price: +3.5% France (Jan to Dec) Volume: -4.0% Av Price: +4.2% G. Britain (52wks to 5 Jan) Volume: -2.9% Av Price: +7% Home Market (52wks to 5 Jan) Volume: -5.0% Av Price: +4.1% 15
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Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Low consumer demand for beef is holding back the market, as rising beef prices in the past few years have turned some on to other meats. Farmers Weekly 27/2/2014 Low consumer demand for beef is holding back the market, as rising beef prices in the past few years have turned some on to other meats. Farmers Weekly 27/2/
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe 18
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK 19
Market Specifications Steer / Heifer grass-fed – unique selling point – clear message from consumers & key customers for years now FH2020 & Beef Activation Group reports highlighted market specification issues Post FH2020 MII members introduced QPS – rewarding quality In-spec bonus – QA and specification Young Bulls – UK retail requirement is for <16 month only. Limited opportunity for some older YBs in Continental markets – processor specific Must have Producer-Processor arrangement for YBs over 16 months. This has been clearly communicated by FH2020 Report and by Individual processors MII has prepared a draft Industry Communication to again highlight importance of specification adherence - farmer gets a better price & industry can better market the output 20
Young Bull Kill – YTD (head/week) Total kill up 7% ytd 21
Real Threats/Challenges EU Trade Deals – Increased tariff-free imports EU-Canada CETA EU-US TTIP EU-Mercosur On-Farm Efficiency Significant advantage still to be achieved behind farm- gate Industry has supported initiatives 22
Conclusions Strong beef sector marketing performance & price delivery Weakening price due to market conditions, but prices still at upper end of EU market In-spec essential – will deliver the best returns Industry responding to short-term supply issues Positive outlook in medium term Challenge – Trade Deals / On-farm productivity 23