Population bases --- Draft text for the new CESR UNECE Task Force on population to be enumerated and geographic characteristics Giampaolo Lanzieri (Eurostat)

Task force composition Population bases: "sub-TF" of the 'Task Force on population to be enumerated and geographic characteristics' Composition as for population bases: ◦ Contributors: Canada, Italy, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Eurostat ◦ Observers: Israel, Poland, USA, CIS-Stat, ILO UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases2

Revision guiding principles Continuity with the past Removal of redundancies - clarity CESR as 'golden standard' 'P&R' rather than 'manual for implementation' UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20143TOPIC: Population bases

Where we were last time Meeting October 2013 ◦ Document on current population definitions in the national census practice as from the latest UNECE survey ◦ Document on proposed changes to the CES Recommendations on the definition of usually resident population and on population bases in general ◦ Document (by Eurostat) on a proposal for a 'new' definition of population UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20144TOPIC: Population bases

From last October Discussions with Steering Committee ◦ Indication to focus on usual residence onlydrop alternative definitions Further developments: ◦ Clarification of the terminology ◦ Detailed classification workers/students away from family home Last version has 3 sections: ◦ General definitions ◦ Recommended population base ◦ Particular cases UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20145TOPIC: Population bases

Section I General definitions UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases6

Chapter introduction (§01) The recommendations and conventions set out in this chapter have been drafted with a view to ensuring that each person should have one, and only one, place of usual residence. This is important in an international context in order to avoid persons either being counted in the populations of more than one country or not being counted at all. The same principle applies in a national context. While for previous censuses, recommendations may have allowed a degree of latitude in the interpretation of some of the conventions relating to place of usual residence, the current recommendations attempt to be stricter. The following paragraphs provide definitions applied in the context of census exercises.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20147TOPIC: Population bases

What is 'enumeration' (§02) “‘Enumeration’ means the act of collecting data about a person (or household), irrespective of whether this occurs with the direct participation of that person (or household).” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20148TOPIC: Population bases

What is 'population' (§03) “‘Population’ is a set of persons attributed to a geographic entity who meet defined criteria at the census reference time; these criteria should help to identify qualifying adjectives (labels) which clarify which population is being referred to.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 20149TOPIC: Population bases

Populations labelling (§04) “To meet national purposes, a country may have an interest in various populations. It is recommended that the qualifying adjectives (labels) attributed to the national populations are as close as possible to the meaning given in the international context.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Target population (§05) “A country may wish to enumerate all persons present in their territory and/or supposedly belonging to the population of interest. ‘Population to be enumerated’ is the set of persons whom the country decides should be covered by the census, regardless of their later inclusion in a specific population count, as defined below. The ‘enumerated population’ is composed of those persons who have actually been enumerated. This may or may not equate to the target population (the population to be enumerated), that is, the coverage of the census may represent either an under-count or over- count.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Theoretical base (§06) “’Population base’ is the population used for the compilation of aggregates for statistical purposes. This may be a subset from - or the whole of - the population to be enumerated. A country may adopt more than one population base (for different statistical purposes), but one should always be the population base used for international comparisons purposes.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Count vs. estimate (§07) “’Population count’ is the aggregate obtained by the simple addition of individual records from the enumerated population base. ‘Population estimate’ is the aggregate obtained as outcome of a statistical method of estimation. Therefore, both the population count and the population estimate refer to a specific population base and are empirical measures.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Figures 1 and 2 UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases Population to be enumerated Enumerated population

Reference time (§08) “The ‘census reference time’ is the time to which any information collected in a census refers. It can be either a precise moment of a day, usually the midnight (census reference moment), or a period of time (census reference period), or a day selected as indicative of a period (census reference average day). Some topics must refer to a moment (stock data), others to a period (flow data) and usually the census reference period includes the census reference time. The ‘census day/period’ is instead the day/period in which a census is carried out and it should not be confused with the census reference time.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Section II Recommended population base UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases16

Usual residence (§09) "‘Place of usual residence’ is the geographic place where the enumerated person usually spends their daily rest, assessed over a defined period of time including the census reference time." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases17

Time criterion (§10) "The ‘usually resident population’ of a country is composed of those persons who have their place of usual residence in the country at the census reference time and have lived or intend to live there for a continuous period of time of at least 12 months. A ‘continuous period of time’ means that absences (from the place of usual residence) whose durations are shorter than 12 months do not affect the place of usual residence. The same criteria apply for any relevant territorial division of the country." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases18

International base (§11) “The population base to be used for international comparisons purposes is the ‘usually resident population’. If a country cannot adopt as (one of) its population base(s) the ‘usually resident population’, it should put all possible efforts into producing estimates that are as close to it as possible using its own population base(s).” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Registered place (§12) “As part of the estimation process in registers-based censuses, whenever reference is made to actual geographic places for the usually resident population base, it could be replaced by the registered place of residence, where the criterion of residence is similarly defined with reference to a qualification period of 12 months.” UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September TOPIC: Population bases

Temporarily absent (§13) "On the basis of the definition of the place of usual residence, persons usually resident in the enumeration place but absent, or expected to be absent, at the time of the census for less than one year should be considered as temporarily absent persons and thus included in the total population." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases21

Emigrants (§14) "The group of absent persons living abroad (relatives of the members of a household that live or are expected to live in another country) for one year or more can be particularly important in countries experiencing high levels of emigration. Some countries try to estimate emigration in the census by collecting data on these persons, for instance using an “emigration module”. Previous experiences have shown that the census can hardly provide an accurate count of the total number of emigrants residing abroad. However, such an approach may provide some information on sub-sets of emigrants, such as those who emigrated recently and/or on those who have close family ties in the country. If data on absent persons living abroad for one year or more are to be collected through the census, their information (in terms of counting and characteristics) should be distinguished from the information collected for the usually resident population." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases22

Allocation (§15) "A total usually resident population count for each territorial division would normally be compiled by adding persons who are usually resident and present and persons who are usually resident but temporarily absent. However, it is not always possible to collect information about persons absent from their place of usual residence, particularly if a whole household is temporarily absent at the time of the census. Provision must therefore be made to collect information about such persons at the place where they are found at the time of the census, and if necessary "transfer" them to their place or territorial division of usual residence, using information about their place of residence." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases23

Total population figure (§16) "Each country should compile a figure for the total usually resident population, and the detailed tabulations should in general be provided on this basis. In those countries where the total population figure has been adjusted for under- or over- enumeration (usually measured by use of a post- enumeration survey or by comparison with other sources), both the enumerated figure (the population count) and the adjusted population figure (the population estimate) should be shown and described. The detailed tabulations may, however, be based only on the population that was actually enumerated." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases24

Population composition (§17) "The composition of the usually resident population should be described in detail in the census report. As a general rule, the total usually resident population should include all persons who have their usual residence in the relevant territorial division regardless of their legal status." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases25

Section III Particular cases UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases26

Doubtful attribution (§18) "There are various population groups for which some uncertainty may arise about their inclusion in the usually resident population of a country. The following persons should be included:" UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases27

No usual residence (§18a) "Persons present at the census reference time to whom the concept of usual residence does not apply (nomads, vagrants, etc.), irrespective of whether or not they meet the 12-month criterion." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases28

Multi-residences (§18b) "Persons who regularly live in more than one country during a year, if they live in the reporting country most of the time, irrespective of whether or not they are present in the reporting country at the census reference time." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases29

Diplomats et al. (§18c) "National military, naval and diplomatic personnel and their families, located outside the country, irrespective of their duration of stay abroad." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases30

"Internationals" (§18d) "Foreign persons working within the country for international organisations (not including foreign diplomats or military forces) and their families, provided that they meet the criteria for the usual residence in the country." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases31

At sea (§18e) "Merchant seamen and fishermen usually resident in the country but at sea at the time of the census (including those who have no place of residence other than their quarters aboard ship)." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases32

Illegal migrants et al. (§18f) "Persons who may be illegal, irregular or undocumented migrants, as well as asylum seekers and persons who have applied for or been granted refugee status or similar types of international protections, provided that they meet the criteria for the usual residence in the country. The intention is not to distinguish these persons separately, but rather to ensure that they are not missed from the enumeration." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases33

"Newborns" (§18g) "Children born in the twelve months before the census reference time and whose families are usually resident in the country at the census reference time." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases34

On the threshold (§18h) "Persons whose stay in the country (actual and/or intended) is exactly one year." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases35

Excluding - mirror cases (§19) "The following persons should instead be excluded from the usually resident population of a country: a.Persons who regularly live in more than one country during a year, if they do not live in the reporting country for most of the time, irrespective of whether or not they are present in the reporting country at the census reference time. b.Foreign military, naval and diplomatic personnel and their families, located in the country, regardless of their duration of stay. c.Persons whose stay in the country (actual and/or intended) is less than one year, even if for a single day." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases36

Link with migration (§20) "For short-term international migrants - those whose stay abroad is at least 3 months but less than 12 months - the previous country of residence should continue to be their country of usual residence. For long-term migrants – whose stay abroad is 12 months or longer - the country of destination should become the country of usual residence of the migrant." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases37

"Institutional" population (§21) "The institution should be taken as the place of usual residence of all inmates who at the time of the census have spent, or are likely to spend, twelve months or more in the relevant institution. Examples of inmates of institutions include patients in hospitals or hospices, old persons in nursing homes or convalescent homes, prisoners and those in juvenile detention centres." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases38

Workers and students (§22) "Persons who work/study away from home may be particularly problematic to classify as for their inclusion in the population of the country and/or their allocation to a place of usual residence within the country. The Table 1 summarises the rules of classification for students and workers." See Table 1 in the paper UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases39

Within the country (§23) "There are other population groups for which some uncertainty may arise in defining their place of usual residence within the country. The recommended conventional treatment of these cases is as follows: a.The place of enumeration should be taken as the place of usual residence of persons with no concept of usual residence, such as homeless or roofless persons, nomads and vagrants. b.When a person regularly lives in more than one residence within the country during the year, the place of usual residence is the place where the person spends most of their time, irrespective of whether or not the person is present in that place at the census reference time. c.A child who alternates between two households within the country (for instance after his or her parents have divorced) should consider the household where he or she spends the majority of the year before the census as his or her place of usual residence. Where an equal amount of time is spent with both parents, the place of usual residence should be the same of that of the parent/household with whom the child is living at the census reference time." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases40

Where the "diplomats"? (§24) "For the national military, naval and diplomatic personnel and their families located outside the country the following classification rules should be applied: a.If they are residing abroad for less than 12 months and they are intending to return to the place of departure, they should be allocated within the country in accordance with the rules for usual residence. In particular, they could be allocated to (by decreasing order of priority): i.The family home address within the country, if any. ii.The duty station within the country to which they were attached before leaving. b.If they are residing abroad for at least 12 months or if they are not intending to return to the place of departure (although returning in the country within a 12-month period), they should be attributed to a 'virtual place' (extra-region) of the country of departure." UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases41

UNECE Expert Group on Population and Housing Censuses, Geneva, September 2014TOPIC: Population bases42 Thanks for the attention!! Finally we did it…