Importance of tree planting survey

Where the discussion began

Source of Planting Acres Chart Through 2000 based on Tree Planting Notes – published by US Forest Service based on reported nursery production Acres based on a planting density assumption Georgia Forestry Commission began reporting planting acres for the southern states – based direct survey of acres planted by state

Comparison to FIA data Source: 2013 Presentation to BWG, George Hernandez and Richard Harper

What are the inconsistency between estimates? Annual Estimates – Annual FIA panel design does not allow for reliable annual estimates – Tree planting notes use of annual nursery production allows annual estimates Planting Acre Estimates for Region – FIA estimate based on plots planted over the measurement cycle – Tree planting notes does not sample planting density therefore cannot produce a confidence interval Planting Acre Estimates by State – State level estimates difficult due to the consolidation of nurseries – FIA estimates based on plots measured within the states

Why do we need these estimates Important indication of future supply – In southern markets many these acres contribute fiber within the next fifteen years Modeling Future Outcomes – Use as a sensitivity to the base supply forecast by updating the age class distribution for a different trend Policy – educational priorities for state and private Economic Analysis – management response to price increase or decrease

2013 TPO and Tree Planting Meeting The estimates of acres planted each year are very useful. The group suggested data would more useful if confidence intervals could be provided. Ratio estimators were proposed as one way to do this. ‒ require collecting data on planting density in addition to number of seedlings. – collect information on species and broad owner category to enhance the tree planting data

Proposed solution Ask nurseries allocate seedling production to states based on seedling sales – May already be happening with some nurseries and state agencies Obtain estimates of planting density by sampling tree planters In 2014 the members of the biometrics working group provided estimates of planting density by region ‒ John F. Godbee of FW Forestry sampling tree planters ‒ Data published by Brooks Mendell survey of TIMO’s and REIT’S ‒ Planting density reported by individual members