THE MEDIA’S INFLUENCE ON VOTING. How important is the media in voting behaviour? Photo © BBC

AIMS OF PRESENTATION This presentation looks at Definitions of the media “Old media” “New media” Party media campaigns Party ground war campaigns Complementing this presentation is the presentation Influences on Voters

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY THE MEDIA? Traditional or “old media”, such as newspapers, books, magazines, television, film and radio The BBC has a legal duty not to be biased in its news coverage. Other tv news outlets e.g. ITN, STV, C4, C5 News hold similar high professional standards. Photo © BBC

NEW MEDIA The term new media refers to the new, often interactive forms of media which have developed in recent years. These are blogs, social networking sites and web based media sites such as YouTube.

BE SPECIFIC IN REFERRING TO THE MEDIA It is important to; Discriminate between the different forms of media Consider the ways the various media try to influence the political process Assess the parties competence in using the media “the air war” Assess the parties competence in persuading voters to get out and vote “the ground war”

THE 2010 ELECTION: WHO SUPPORTED WHO Daily NewspaperParty supported GuardianLib Dem IndependentLib Dem or Labour TelegraphCon TimesCon HeraldNone ScotsmanNone Financial TimesCon MirrorLabour RecordLabour SunCon StarNone ExpressCon MailCon The Sun is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK. Most of the biggest selling UK tabloids backed the Conservatives. Labour, and Gordon Brown in particular, was attacked and ridiculed. Newspapers can be as biased as they want!

LABOUR SUPPORTING NEWSPAPERS The Mirror did its best to win it for Labour, even urging tactical voting for the Lib Dems in marginal seats. In 2010 only the Daily Mirror, The Observer and the Daily Record backed Labour. The Guardian switched its support from Labour to Lib Dem.

1997, 2001 AND 2005 NEWS INTERNATIONAL In 1997, The Murdoch press turned on former PM John Major because he wasn't Margaret Thatcher. It supported Tony Blair because he was not the “old Labour” of state ownership and progressive taxation. News International is run by Rupert Murdoch. News International owns media all over the world. In the UK it owns BSkyB, The Sun, The Sunday Sun, The Times and The Sunday Times.

THE 2010 ELECTION AND NEWS INTERNATIONAL The Sun did its best to win it for the Conservatives. The Sun traditionally backs the winner, but then again, it usually waits to see who is most likely to win before it decides who to back.

BUT MAYBE IN 2010 THEY DID… Between 2005 and the time The Sun formally endorsed David Cameron in September 2009, Sun readers had already swung to the Conservatives by 12.5%. In other words, they’d decided to vote Tory before Rupert Murdoch told them to. But then during the election itself, between the 6th of April when the Prime Minister called the election and election day itself, five Sun readers in a hundred swung back to the Tories. Given the closeness of the 2010 General Election result, perhaps, this time, it was The Sun wot won it?

IN SCOTLAND IN 2007 THE TABLOID PRESS DIDN’T SWING THE ELECTION In the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, the tabloid press attacked the SNP. But the SNP won the election and also became the largest party in Scottish local government.

THE 2011 ELECTION SNP AND THE PRESS The Sun switched its support from Labour to the SNP. The tabloid devoted six pages to praising the SNP and its leader, Alex Salmond, and attacking Scottish Labour. The SNP was also backed by the News of the World, the Scotsman, the Scotland on Sunday, the Sunday Herald and the Scottish Sunday Express. The Daily Record, however, continued to give its support to Labour.

INFLUENCE ON VOTERS: THE LEADERS’ DEBATES The first ever UK leaders’ debates took place in 2010, with three debates on ITV, Sky and BBC. Around 10 million people watched the first debate on ITV. Nick Clegg performed very well and the rise in support for the Lib Dems in the polls led many to believe the leaders’ debates would have a decisive influence. But, the Lib Dems’ vote increased by a mere 1%. Perhaps this is because, unlike in the USA, we do not vote directly for our political leader. It may also have been a reflection on the FPTP voting system, where a vote for the Lib Dems was, all too often, in reality, a “wasted vote”.

2011 SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT LEADERS’ DEBATES There were three leaders tv debates in total. Unlike the 2010 General Election leader’s debates, there was no one pivotal moment. But, the Presidential element to these debates was said to have worked more in Alex Salmond’s favour. The SNP campaign focused heavily on the Salmond leadership, even placing his name on the 2 nd ballot paper. There was also an economy debate where the finance spokespeople from each of the parties were joined by economic advisers. The first leaders’ debate

SO, THE OLD MEDIA IS STILL VERY IMPORTANT In the 2010 General Election the Old Media to dominated. The first tv debate was watched by 9.4 million people. The Sun was read by 8 million people every day. By contrast, 79% of Britons could not re-call any online electioneering, not even an . Social media and the election

BUT.. THE LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING Social media is changing journalism. Non-journalists or “citizen journalists” are making news a far more participatory experience. New media organisations such as Al Jazeera and the Huffington Post have been quicker to adapt, integrating Twitter and Facebook with their coverage of events.

NEWSPAPERS IN DECLINE Newspaper sales are in decline as people increasingly get their news online or from free newspapers paid for by advertising. NewspaperSales June 2012 The Sun2,583,552 (down 7.95% from June 2011) The Daily Record 279,324 (-8.67% from June 2011) The Times 400,120 (-9.18% from June 2011) The Guardian 211,511 (-17.47% from June 2011) The Herald 44,445 (-8.29% from June 2011)

NEW MEDIA USAGE ON THE INCREASE The latest data from the Office of National Statistics n the UK shows that, for the first time ever, over half of adults accessed social networking sites in These figures can only grow. 91% of year olds use social media Usage is also high for the year old (76%) and year olds (58%).

NEW MEDIA AND THE 2011 SCOTTISH ELECTIONS Arguably, it is the SNP which has made the best use of new media. The SNP’s 2011 website combined Twitter and Facebook platforms. This allowed updates and new developments to reach users who could ‘like’ these on their Facebook pages and spread the message.

Rather than oppositions win them? DO GOVERNMENTS LOSE ELECTIONS? Black Wednesday 1992 “Bottler Brown” 2007 Sometimes the voters just lose confidence in a governing party. Sometimes there is a defining moment when a party loses the trust of the voters and never wins it back. While the Conservatives lost the massive lead it had built up, Labour Ministers conceded that the 2010 election was “lost” as far back as October 2007.

BUT THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE TOO: 2011 SUBWAYGATE At one point, Scottish Labour was more than 10 points ahead of the SNP in the 2011 Scottish election polls but it’s lead had been narrowly decreasing. Perhaps the game changing moment came when a photo opportunity by Labour leader Iain Gray at the entrance of Glasgow Central station was hijacked by cuts protestors. With the benefit of hindsight, Iain Gray should, perhaps, have engaged with the protestors. But he walked away, seeking refuge in a local Subway shop. The subsequent media coverage where he was held up to ridicule and lampooned mercilessly was disastrous for him. Polling results a few days later recorded a decline in Labour’s support. Stooshie in a sandwich shop

LEADERSHIP By contrast, polls conducted during the 2011 Scottish election consistently showed that Alex Salmond was the most popular candidate for First Minister. The SNP promoted Alex Salmond’s ‘father of the nation’ image, which it contrasted with Iain Gray’s ‘gray by name, gray by nature’ image and his lack of recognition by voters. Do you recognise this man?

LEADERSHIP In these days of celebrity, the image of the leader takes on more and more importance. While a party’s campaign will not, on its own, win an election, a badly organised media campaign can certainly lose one. Parties require a good “air” attack via the media, but also a good “ground war”; phone calls, s, leaflets and enthusiastic campaigners in communities. In 2010, Labour was hammered by The Sun and this put the party on the defensive. But, it didn’t help itself by scoring spectacular “own goals”. Gordon Brown bigot gaffe

2011 THE PARTY MACHINE IN SCOTLAND In 2011, the SNP ran a well focused campaign with an upbeat message which focused on their achievements. There were bright, collective slogans: “Be Part of Better”, Hollywood-style campaign launches and celebrity endorsements. The SNP’s “ground war” was also slicky planned. Its “Activate” voter database system, also used in 2007, allowed the SNP to pinpoint voters. Apps were used by campaigners to feed back voters opinions into the database. Its army of young volunteers contacted the voters Activate identified as likely SNP voters. It got them out to vote.

POLICIES STILL COUNT The 2012 Scottish local elections were a reminder that even with the most sophisticated technology, the smartest brand and the slickest party machine, if the party’s policies aren’t popular, voters won’t respond. Against all predictions, Labour won Glasgow City Council. While the SNP’s campaign was high-level, Labour focused on practical, popular polices such the “Glasgow Guarantee”- providing every young person aged with support in the form of an apprenticeship, training or work. Pledges of free swimming for the under 18s and over 60s, free golf on Council courses to the over 60s also held appeal for core Labour voters, of which there are many in Glasgow. Nationally, the SNP once again won more council seats than any other party.