Outlook for the US Economy Over the Coming Year Prof. Steven Kyle Cornell University March 2015.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013.

Advertisements

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.

Emerging Markets in the Global Economic Crisis Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas.

Why We Don’t Need to Worry About Ben Bernanke’s Helicopter An Insight into the Nation’s Inflation Situation Bill Armstrong Fed Challenge March 18, 2010.

The Polish economy in 2002 Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz Research Office (London) Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Calumet Area Industrial Commission Chicago, IL April.

Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Saint Xavier University Graham School of Management.

Microeconomics and Macroeconomics FCS 3450 Spring 2015 Unit 4.

26 Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair The Labor Market,

Chapter 8 Unemployment and Inflation. Business Cycles  Business Cycle: the pattern of real GDP rising and falling.  Recession (Contraction): two or.

Global Outlook June Areas Today Asia China U.S.A.

Macroeconomics: output, employment and income in the Australian Economy Chapter 2.

Future Financial Forecast An update on the big economic picture for credit, interest rates and inflation. Paul Cahill Chief Executive Officer.

Unit4 Business Cycle Recession Inflation. Business Cycles in the USA The business cycle consists of two phases: Expansion and Recession. Expansion is.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Spring Manufacturers Institute Orlando, FL April.

The Economic or Business Cycle. Measuring Economic Activity We calculate the value of a country's output or wealth generated in a year by measuring GDP-Gross.

Relationship Between Businesses & The Economic Environment

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 17: Short-term Economic Fluctuations 1.Identify the.

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference.

Growth of the Economy And Cyclical Instability

1 Business Cycles and Unemployment Economics for Today by Irvin Tucker, 6 th edition ©2009 South-Western College Publishing.

Economic Instability.

Today’s Economic Situation: The Great Recession, The Recovery, Where We (May Be) Going? Principles of Macroeconomics 7/20/12.

Accelerating Growth in the Digital Age Do we need growth? Where might it come from? September 2014 James Sproule, Chief Economist Institute of Directors.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Association of Spring Manufacturers Rosemont,

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Home Improvement Spending James Gillula Managing Director, Consulting Services IHS Global Insight April 2014.

Chapter 19 Introduction to Macroeconomics © 2009 South-Western/ Cengage Learning.

Phases of the Business Cycle Manufacturing Labor Hours

Business Cycles and Unemployment. Business Cycle Alternating periods of economic growth and contraction, which can be measured by changes in real GDP.

Measuring the Economy Goals 9.01 & Why does the government need to know what the economy is doing?  The government makes decisions that affect.

Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.

© 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. From Slow Straggle to Steady Stride: A Hesitant Recovery Assumes New Cadence Robert Johnson, CFA Director.

 Stabilization policies (fiscal and monetary) are applied to affect inflation and unemployment  The difficulty in stabilization is that inflation and.

W ASHINGTON C ROSSING A DVISORS Market and Economy Outlook.

1 of 18 Chapter 25 The Difference Between Short-Run and Long-Run Macroeconomics.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS November 2, 2012 New York, NY.

Economic Outlook for 2010 Prof. Steven Kyle Cornell University December 8, 2009.

Changes in Business Activity

US Economy Forecast 2013, 2014 Till Schreiber College of William & Mary September 26 th 2013 Nafa Annual Convention, Savannah, GA.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

NEO-KEYNESIANISM Keynesian, Monetarism (Friedman) and Rational Expectations (Sargent)

Review #1 1.) In year 1, the cost of a market basket of goods was $760. In year 2, the cost of the same basket was $800. What was the consumer price index.

Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies Adaptive and Rational Expectations.

Noncompetitive division charts and policy questions The following pages provide a range of indicators (listed in alphabetical order) that you can use to.

Creating a Forecast Charles Steindel January 21, 2010 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve.

Economic Outlook Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook William Strauss

Outlook for the US Economy Over the Coming Year

Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University January 24, 2017

U.S. Economic Performance

Circular Flow & Business Cycle

Edmonton’s Economic Outlook

Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University December 13, 2016

Economic Conditions and Outlook

Recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity. Macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 25 The Keynesian Perspective

Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University November 10, 2016

Fishkind & Associates, Inc.

Georgia’s Economic Conditions and Outlook

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018: “THE COSTS OF GROWTH” Dr. Michael L. Walden

A Preview of Macroeconomics.

Business Cycles and Unemployment

Reading the Business Cycle

Reading the Business Cycle

Professor Steven Kyle Cornell University January 18, 2019

Economic Outlook EconoSummit 2019 William Strauss Las Vegas, NV

Presentation transcript:

Outlook for the US Economy Over the Coming Year Prof. Steven Kyle Cornell University March 2015

Grading My Predictions from Last Year Most economists are taught to avoid naming both a number and a date I do it anyway every year and post the results on my website How did I do last time?

My forecast: “3% or a bit less if Europe has a serious crisis”

My forecast: “ … mid 6% range”

Part timers & discouraged workers also down

My forecast: “inflation not a worry”

My forecast: “Near zero”

Real Rates Low Across the Board

Housing Market It was the source of the mayhem in Continues to gradually stage a comeback Real estate a slow moving market at best of times

Where are we now in the business cycle? Still on the upswing though still more gradual than we might like Coincident and Leading Indicators still in the green

February 2009

Still Lots of Slack in Labor Market

Labor Market for Prime Age Groups Seeing Demographic Change

Industrial Production Higher than Previous Peak …

… but Capacity Utilization Still Below 80%

Consumer Spending Still Rising at Trend Rate

Household Debt Back to “Normal” levels ***

Inflation Still Low by Historical Standards

Don’t Worry About This Scary Chart! Really!

Still Not Much Wage Pressure

Fiscal Policy Continues to Contract

Europe the Biggest Wild Card Most recent Greece agreement not really an agreement Fundamental Issue: They are stuck with one monetary policy for all when some of them really really really need a different policy My worry: Continuation of policies that generate Great Depression levels of employment discredit centrist politicians

Outlook for Policy Monetary Policy will be continuation of the present expansionary low interest policy Fiscal Policy is anyone’s guess. We NEED investment but seem to be getting even more extreme disfunction Holding economy hostage is no way to govern

Predictions GDP growth at 3% Unemployment 5-5.5% Inflation – Not a worry Interest rates – 1% or less at short end – Long rates may creep up if wages accelerate Fiscal Policy? Lets all pray for sanity Europe - ditto