1 History of Marriage Equality ’93-’08  Baehr v. Lewin, (Hawai’i, 1993) First State Supreme Court to rule “traditional marriage laws” unconstitutional (plurality decision)  Sex discrimination (yes)  Sexual orientation discrimination (no) Dependent on Immutability of Homosexuality  Federal Defense of Marriage Act  Sec 1: No state has to recognize same-sex marriages  Sec 2: Federal government prohibited from recognizing SSM (Signed into law by Pres. Clinton Sep. 21, 1996)  Baehr v. Miike, (Hawai’i, 1997)  Repealed in Nov by Amendment 2 “The Legislature shall have the power to regulate marriage.”

2 History of Marriage Equality ’93-’08  Baker v. State (Vermont, 1999) Ruled the State of Vermont must treat same-sex couples similarly to opposite-sex couples Vermont Legislature enacted and Gov. Howard Dean signed the nation’s first Civil Unions bill which went into effect July 1, 2000  Electoral Backlash Accelerates 1998 (HI, AK) 2000 (NE, CA)  California’s Proposition 22 passes March 7, %-38% “Only marriage between a man and a woman shall be valid or recognized in California” 2002 (NV) 2004 (13 states!) 2005 (KS, TX) 2006 (8 states, AZ becomes first and only state to defeat an anti-gay marriage ballot measure) 2008 (CA, FL, AZ)

3 History of Marriage Equality ’93-’08  Goodridge v. Dept. of Public Health (Massachusetts, 2003) Ruled the State’s denial of civil marriage was not “rationally related to a legitimate state interest” and violated due process (fundamental right to marry) and equal protection (creation of second class citizens) Delayed the decision 180 days to go into effect on May 17, 2004 (50 th Anniversary of Brown v. Board of Education) MA constitution requires amendments approved by state legislature in two consecutive sessions (earliest The People would be able to vote on the question would be November 2006)  February 12 to March 11, 2004 San Francisco City Clerk issues marriage licenses to same-sex couples  Federal Marriage Amendment (FAILED 227 Yes, 186 No Sep. 30, 2004 in U.S. House) “Marriage in the United States shall consist solely of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution, nor the constitution of any State, shall be construed to require that marriage or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon any union other than the union of a man and a woman”

4 History of Marriage Equality ’93-’08  Do Justices read election returns? George W. Bush defeats John Kerry in 2004 election Legislative actions: California passes marriage bills in 2005 and 2007, vetoed both times by Governator  mostly state court losses Washington (2006) New York (2006) Maryland (2007)  Lewis v. Harris (New Jersey, 2006)  State must treat same-sex couples equally  In Re Marriage Cases (California, 2008)  Proposition 22 and state’s marriage law are unconstitutional  sexual orientation is a suspect classification  Kerrigan v. Commissioner of Public Health (Connecticut, Oct. 28, 2008)  Civil Unions are not equivalent to marriage!

5 The Future!?  Blogger Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) has looked at the 30 states that have voted to amend their constitution and done a regression analysis which shows that the most important factors are 1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon; 2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives; 2008 Gallup tracking surveys 3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.  When extrapolated into the future it shows the year in which a similar vote to ban gay marriage would fail in each state