Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 1 Introductory Remarks for the Workshop Brent Lofgren and Andrew Gronewold Workshop on Methods for Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology Muskegon, MI August 27, 2012

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 2 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 2 Credits Facilitation and Planning Committee David Bidwell, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (U. of Michigan and Michigan State U.) Allison Steiner, Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences Dept., U. of Michigan Logistical Arrangements and Miscellaneous Help Anthony Acciaioli, Co-op Inst. For Limnology and Ecosystems Res. Dennis Donahue, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station Mike Ryan, Mary Baumgartner, and Cathy Darnell, GLERL Ann Arbor On-site Assistance DJ Henman, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station Kevin Strychar, Grand Valley State U. Denise Herzhaft and staff, USS Silversides Museum

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 3 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 3 Food! Lunches Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (GLISA) Snacks Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 4 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 4 Credits Keynote Speakers Discussants All Presenters and Participants

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 5 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 5 NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Marie Colton, Director

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 6 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 6 Personnel 50 federal, 20 Cooperative Institute and contract 12 physical science, 25 biological and ecological, 9 observing systems, 10 field operations Co-located: Thunder Bay NMS, NOAA Habitat Restoration Team, NOAA Great Lakes Regional Collaboration Team, International Association for Great Lakes Research

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 7 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 7 TemperaturePressure Clouds Humidity Wind Sfc temperatureSfc roughnessSfc moisture Sensible heat Upward longwave Friction Downward longwave Sfc albedo Latent heat/evap Upward solar Downward solarUpward longwave Precip The Real World (simplified)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 8 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 8 Temperature Pressure Clouds Humidity Wind Sfc temperatureSfc roughnessSfc moisture Sensible heat Upward longwave Friction Downward longwave Sfc albedo Latent heat/evap Upward solar Downward solarUpward longwave Precip Evap Drastic simplification

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 9 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 9 Temperature Pressure Clouds Humidity Wind Sfc temperatureSfc roughnessSfc moisture Sensible heat Upward longwave Friction Downward longwave Sfc albedo Upward solar Downward solarUpward longwave Precip Evap Latent heat/evap Redundant variable

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 10 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Differences in surface energy fluxes, averaged globally and annually, in the 2×CO2, solar, and stabilized cases, relative to control. “Sfc. net SW” refers to the net surface absorption (incident minus reflected) of solar radiation, and “Sfc. net LW” refers... Bala G et al. PNAS 2008;105: ©2008 by National Academy of Sciences

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 11 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 11 Key quotation “The residual change in precipitation that we find in the stabilized case is an indication that the hydrological sensitivity of the climate system depends on the forcing mechanisms.” Bala et al. 2008, PNAS This is similar to the difference between calibrating an offline hydrologic model to air temperature variability that is mainly due to the seasonal cycle (solar or net radiation) and applying it to trends due to greenhouse gases.

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 12 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 12 Organizing questions for this workshop 1.How do we bridge the gap between climate projection and hydrologic projection? 2.How do we make this fully self-consistent and serve the needs of those interested in surface-atmosphere interaction and those interested in surface water budgets? 3.What is the role of empirical and process-based models in a non- stationary regime? 4.How do we educate impacts researchers and the general public about relevant caveats in simulations of hydrologic impacts of climate change?

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 13 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 13 Ideal Outcome We don’t just think, but know, how to determine climate change’s effects on hydrology

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 14 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 14 More Realistic Present different methods aimed at different aspects of the hydrologic system Discuss strengths and weaknesses of different methods Brainstorm new ideas to try—applicable in a variety of geographic contexts Satisfy the needs of both hydrologic and atmospheric scientists based on surface water and energy budgets Make strides toward review article and further research Potential large collaborative project

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 15 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 15 Thanks to all for coming. Have a great workshop and a great visit to Muskegon.