Observations Drawn from the NCHEMS Feasibility and Demand Study Presented to the AZ AIR Prescott, Arizona April 4, 2008 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado

2 Activities of the Project ►Data Analysis ►Regional Forums ►Simulation Models

3 Arizona Is Behind the U.S. in the Education Attainment Levels of Its Young Adult Population And It Is Losing Ground Rapidly.

4 Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Arizona, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Education at a Glance 2005, Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

5 Percent of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Age Group—Arizona, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Education at a Glance 2005, OECD

6 Difference in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—United States, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS) and ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

7 Percentage Differences Between Younger (Age 25-34) and Older (Age 45-54) Populations with College Degrees, Associate and Higher, 2005 Washington Oklahoma Florida South Carolina Oregon Maine Connecticut Colorado Texas California Nevada Idaho Alaska Arizona Vermont Hawaii New Mexico Source:U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

8 Educational Attainment and Rank Among States— Arizona, 2005 (Percent) 77.7% 9.2% 84.2% 9.0% 26.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

9 The Gap in Education Attainment Is Reflected in Per Capita Incomes

10 Per Capita Personal Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Arizona, Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce U.S. Average

12 Becoming Internationally Competitive Would Require a Large Increase in Annual Degree Production. Part of This Increase Would Have to Come from “Re-Entry” Students.

13 The “Gap”—Difference in Annual Degrees Currently Produced and Annual Degrees Needed to Meet Benchmark Source:U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey Accounting for Migration North Dakota Nebraska Iowa Rhode Island Utah New York Colorado Massachusetts 131,749 94, ,533 Arizona’s 29,290 = 101% Increase (Assuming All Growth in Public Sector)

14 Closing the Gap in the Educational Pipeline Source: “Making Opportunity Affordable” project (Lumina, Jobs for the Future, NCHEMS), Summer ,333,645 In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even current best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees.

15 Increase in Certificates and Degrees Produced, (In Addition to Number Currently Produced) Increase required without migration Increase required with current levels of migration

16 Projected Increase in Population ►Be Concentrated in Three Counties ►Consist Primarily of Subpopulations that Historically Have not Been Well Served by Higher Education Arizona Is Projected to Have a Large Increase in Population that Will:

17 Projected Percent Change in Total Population, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

18 Projected Change in Total Arizona Population By County, ,992, Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security

19 Projected Change in Arizona Population by Age Group and County, Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security 393.3

20 Projected Change in Arizona Population Age By Race/Ethnicity and County, Source: Arizona Dept. of Commerce, Arizona Dept. of Economic Security 180, ,467

21 Percent Educational Attainment of Arizona’s Young Workforce (Age 25-34)—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD MalesMalesMalesMalesMales FemalesFemalesFemalesFemalesFemales Native American/Asian/ WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Alaska Native Pacific Islander Top Country (Norway) U.S. Index = 81% Bachelor's Degree or Higher Top Country (Canada) U.S. Index = 72% All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)

22 Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

23 Increases in Enrollment by 2025 Based on Population Growth and Participation Rates by County 56,988 90,210

24 Arizona Historically Has Relied on In-Migration for Much of Its Workforce

25 Arizona Net Gain of Residents by Degree Level and Age Group, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files 22- to 29-Year-Olds30- to 64-Year-Olds Less than HS High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Prof. Total

26 NCHEMS Analytical Framework (Draft) Arizona in a National and International Context Educational Attainment Performance Within the Educational System Population Characteristics` Economic Competitiveness Etc. Race/Ethnic and Regional Differences Within the State A Model that Will Take Into Account Potential Future Changes in: Population Growth High School Graduation Rates College-Going and Participation Rates Persistence and Completion Rates Closing Race/Ethnic Gaps Closing Regional Gaps The Cost Per FTE Student - "Business as Usual" A Model that Will Estimate the Amount of Need-Based Grant Aid Needed to Ensure Affordability at the Public Institutions Grounded Conceptually on the Principle that Students and Their Families, the Federal Government and the State Bear Primary Responsibility for Making College Affordable Supply vs. Demand in Key High-Demand Occupations (Present and Future) Healthcare Occupations Teaching High Tech Occupations (Regional Differences for the Above) Educational Requirements and Degrees Needed to Meet Demand in and Expand the 12 "Industries of Opportunity" The Variation in Which the Above Issues Apply Regionally The Role and Ability of the Local Institutions in Addressing the Issues The Relationship Between Local Institutions and Local Workforce Demand and Economic Development Data and InformationProject ActivityOutcomes Consensus on the Most Important Issues Facing the State Creating a Framework for the Regional Meetings and the Final Report A Planning Tool that Can Be Used for: Assessing the Impact of Achieving a Variety of Goals on Enrollment and Degree Production Which Improvements Would Yield the Greatest Impact Costs Associated with Meeting Performance Goals Cost Savings Associated with Improved Efficiency Cost Savings Associated with Alternative Methods of Delivery (e.g. 2+2, Distance Learning, etc.) A Planning Tool for Estimating the Investment Needed from the State According to Shared Responsibility To Gain a Better Sense of: The Shortages In Key Occupations - the Gaps Between Supply and Demand Regional Differences - and the Institutions Positioned to Address the Gaps Degrees Needed to Expand Key Industries of Opportunity Garnering Consensus on the Key Issues Around the State More Insight Into How Potential Strategies Should Play Out Regionally Final Report Highlighting the Findings from Above Policy Options Cost Implications Comparative Data Analysis Student Flow Simulation Model Student Financial Aid Simulation Model Assessment of Workforce Needs Regional Visits

27 Simulation Models ►Student Flow Model ►Enrollment Projection Model ►Occupation Projection Model

28 Student Flow Model—A Tool to Help Guide Policy Decisions ►High School Graduation ►College-Going ►Participation Rates of Non-Traditional Adults ►First-Year Retention Rates ►Transfer from Two- to Four-Year Institutions ►Graduation Rates ►Population Growth (Impacting All of the Above) Policy Parameters (continued)

29 Student Flow Model—A Tool to Help Guide Policy Decisions (continued) ►Change in Annual Enrollment ►Change in Certificates/Degrees Awarded ►Cost to State and Students—“Business as Usual” Model Outputs

30 Enrollment Projection Model ►Model Inputs >Enrollment of First-Time Students by Age Group and County of Origin >Population Projections by Age Group and County of Origin ►Model Outputs >Institutional Undergraduate Enrollment Changes from 2005 to 2025 >Additional Undergraduate Enrollments with Increased Participation Rates Assumption:Regional Patterns of Enrollment Stay the Same— i.e., Institutions Continue to Draw Their Students from the Same Counties at the Same Rates

31 Occupation Model—A Tool to Help Gauge Which Occupations Will Have the Greatest Shortages ►Projected Annual Openings by Occupation from 2000 to 2025 (Provided by DES) ►Current Annual Degree Production by the Fields Associated with Occupations Above—Carried Out to 2025 (Provided by NCES) Model Inputs (continued)

32 Occupation Model—A Tool to Help Gauge Which Occupations Will Have the Greatest Shortages (continued) ►Additional Workers Needed ►Additional Workers Needed (with College Degrees) ►Projected Annual Openings (Growth + Turnover) ►Projected Annual Surplus or Shortage (Degree Production, Fewer Openings) ►Impact of All of the Above on the 12 Industries of Opportunity Model Outputs

33 Regional Forums

34 Building a State-Wide Public Agenda “SWOT”

35 Strengths ►Traction ►Governor’s Attention ►Culture of Change

36 Weaknesses ►Data System – availability to move quickly on technical issues ►Lack of an Established Public Entity to Lead a State-Wide Public Agenda Over Time

37 Opportunities ►Chartering “Unchartered Territory” – the chance to set a precedent for the nation >Improving Performance of Certain Race/Ethnic Populations >Creative Program Delivery ►Lack of an Established Public Entity that Has a Long-Established History of Doing the Wrong Things

38 Threats ►Sustainability ►Retreating Away from the Concept of “Collective Action”

39 Developing a Statewide Accountability System