Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

How the crisis might transform higher education: some scenarios Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

Advertisements

Higher Human Biology Demographic Trends Chapter 36.

The Situation of Women in China Johannes Jütting and Theodora Xenogiani 27 November 2007 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

2005 edition of Education at a Glance Under embargo until 13 September 2005, 11:00 Paris time.

“Steering and Funding – The Governance of science systems” Sources Based ont the reports of the Ad Hoc Working Group Steering and Funding of Research Institutions.

AME Education Sector Profile

Demographic Trends and the Education Pipeline: Implications for Educating Latinos for the Future of America.

‘Competition generally raises quality.’ ‘I plead guilty to believing in choice and competition’

1 Politicas de Uso de Nuevas Tecnologias en la Educacion Superior Bogota, Colombia, Agosto 2005 La educación virtual y el futuro de las universidades Tom.

Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Some Insights From Australia by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director.

1 Roberto Pitea Regional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo Cairo, 20 – 21 September.

Trends in Higher Education Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada 2002.

PIAAC can help Colleges in North America to fulfill their role in the Higher Education Sector Satya Brink, Ph.D

Vladimir Hulik, Head of Analytical Unit, Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, CZE Klara Hulikova, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Charles.

Human Resources, Education and Innovation Workshop on Advancing Innovation: Human Resources, Education and Training 17 – 18 November 2008 Bonn, Germany.

Snowdon & Associates Inc. The changing landscape of higher education in Canada Canadian Association of University Business Officers Halifax, 2003 Ken.

Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios Bucharest – 31 October 2009 Kiira Kärkkäinen OECD Centre for Educational Research and.

Rural Economy Research Centre Population and Settlement Change 1991 – 2006: David Meredith Opportunities for rural development.

Social Policy : Trends in spending, recipiency and policy focus Seminar presentation: Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs 11 October, 2007, Seoul,

Institutional diversity: some trends and some hypotheses Richard Yelland OECD Directorate for Education OECD/France International Conference CNAM, 8-9.

Israel in a Global Perspective The Israel Business Conference December 2010 Prof. Eugene Kandel Head of National Economic Council Prime Minister’s Office.

Trends and issues in higher education Bo Hansson Indicators and Analysis Division Directorate of Education, OECD HEGESCO Advisory Board Meeting Ljubljana,

Re-envisioning the role of universities in the 21st Century Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

The New Demographics of Higher Education Will Doyle National Press Foundation Business of Higher Education Seminar 10/30/06.

Governmental Economical Policy towards Arab Sector The Authority for Economic Development of the Minorities Sector Aiman Saif November 2014.

Women on the Move: The Neglected Gender Dimension of the Brain Drain

Sarosh Sattar November 28, 2011 Europe and Central Asia Region The World Bank.

Intro Opportunity for Higher Education in a Perfect Storm Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity Programs Newark, New Jersey April 8, 2013 Tom Mortenson Senior.

Educational standards and economic and social development Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Lisbon Council Brussels, 14 September.

PREMIER MINISTRE International Social Security Association World Social Security Forum (Moscow, Tuesday 11 September 2007) Demographic.

KEY GENDER ISSUES IN LABOUR MARKET AND PRODUCTION OF LABOUR STATISTICS IN MALAWI Household Surveys and Measurement of Labour Force with Focus on Informal.

ANZAM WORKSHOP 2009 Peter Noonan. Framework for Review Terms of Reference Excluded innovation and research which was to be dealt with in Cutler Review.

Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators Theo Sparreboom Employment Trends International Labour Organization.

Strategies for Achieving Greater Success and Attainment in Tertiary Education Arthur M. Hauptman Wellington Group Meeting Chicago 18 July 2007.

CERI’s Innovation Strategy for Education and Training Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Senior Analyst & Project Leader OECD Centre for Educational Research and.

EAIR Forum, Copenhagen Student based funding in higher education systems with declining and uncertain enrolments: the Portuguese case Carlos Vieira.

Figure 1. Trends in number of births and TFR: Japan, Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Vital Statistics, various years

Family Planning, Human Development and Growth in Uganda Jouko Kinnunen, VATT Hans Lofgren, World Bank Dino Merotto, World Bank Presentation for the Twelfth.

1 The OECD/CERI foresight study on higher education: impact on policy and decision-making Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Analyst OECD Centre for Educational Research.

Scottish Executive’s Futures Work Strategy Unit November 2006.

Trends in VET: Challenges and perspectives Mihaylo Milovanovitch OECD Directorate for Education 4th meeting of SEEVET-Net Chisinau, 11 July 2011.

GENDER GAPS IN EDUCATION Angelica SALVI DEL PERO Social Policy Division Evidence from the OECD Flemish Ministry of Education & Training 18 October 2012.

1 Labour market changes: trends and prospects Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Analyst OECD/CERI Centre for Educational Research and Innovation How might the changing.

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) OECD’s International Window on Education and Learning David Istance Banff, October 2011.

11 OECD-EC Education Policy Outlook Country Profile POLAND Judith Peterka, OECD Directorate for Education & Skills Warsaw, 25 November 2015.

Systemic Reform and Cross border education in APEC economies Presented to the 2nd APEC Symposium on Education Reform Xi’an, China, January 15-17, 2008.

1 OECD Thematic Review of Tertiary Education Comparative Indicators on Tertiary Education 1 st Workshop of Participating Countries 6-7 June, 2005 Hiroyuki.

ECONOMIC INACTIVITY OF POPULATION: KEY CHALLENGE TO THE LABOUR MARKET IN BULGARIA Kremena Borissova-Marinova, Assoc. Prof., PhD Vienna, March 2015.

Introduction Characteristics of the Israeli labor market –Low participation rate in the labor force compared to OECD countries –High rate of foreign workers.

Strategy of Transformation of Czech Universities Petr Kolář Vice Minister for Science and HE Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports.

Women, Work, and the Economy: Macroeconomic Gains from Gender Equity The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and should not be.

Presentation to OECD Policy Forum on the reassessment of the OECD Jobs Strategy 7-8 July 2005, Tokyo, Japan Better Jobs, Working Smarter.

1 Workshop on Regional Co- operation in Education Statistics Belgrade, 6-7 December 2012 ETF.

Gender analysis of the present situation in Germany, Lithuania and Sweden Marta Hozer-Kocmiel, Sandra Misiak, University of Szczecin Winnet Centre of Excellence.

Post-School Education and training-uptake in labour market trends.

Some preliminary remarks

Family Policy across the OECD

Seminar presentation:

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF GENDER EQUALITY IN THE EU - STEM

Post-School Education and training-uptake in labour market trends.

Facts at a glance: Transfer Movements and Tuition Savings in Ohio Public Institutions of Higher Education Ohio Articulation and Transfer Network January.

Social Policy : Trends in spending, recipiency and policy focus

SA’s Demographic Dividend And Education Landscape Explored

Family Policy across the OECD

Higher Education in Romania

Family Policy across the OECD

Family Policy : an International Perspective

Social Policy : Trends in spending, recipiency and policy focus

Immigration, Diversity, Human Capital and the Future Labor Force of Developed Countries: the European Model Guillaume Marois1, Patrick Sabourin1, Alain.

TRENDS IN EDUCATION Guntars Catlaks Senior research co-ordinator

Presentation transcript:

Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education Trends analysis –Demography –Technology –Globalisation –Academic research –Labour market Futures scenarios

Outline Why does demography matter? What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes? What are the qualitative challenges? What will it take to address them?

Why does demography matter?

Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments

Evolution of the population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)

Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to growth rate (constant prices)

Tertiary educational attainment (%) of population

Tertiary educational attainment (%) of population

Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments

Population estimates for the make-up of year olds in the United States Source: US Censur Bureau

Social inequity over time (father’s education) Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)

Growth in the number of foreign students ( , 2000=100)

Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women

Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?

Addressing the quality access challenges

On your memory stick Higher Education 2030 –Volume 1: Demography Forthcoming: –Volume 2: Technology –Volume 3: Globalisation –Volume 4: Scenarios

THANK YOU