Internationalisation in the face of demographic change: student recruitment and its role in the upcoming decades Christian Berthold Uwe Brandenburg Warszawa, April 2008

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Content  Demographic development in Germany  Important markets (new and old) for HEIs  Market entry: highly individualised  Options for Poland?!

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Who we are? CHE Centre for Higher Education Development  CHE non profit / CHE Consult  One brand – two companies  CHE non profit –Think tank to stimulate reforms in HE-System –Rankings  CHE Consult is a consultancy –for German and international HEIs –for the ministeries of the federal states

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Impact to Higher Education  People are growing older –small impact to HE-System, more to society at large  Declining population –fewer traditional students –increasing importance of further qualification and life long learning –increasing importance of foreign students –need for recruitment-strategies to disadvantaged people (socio-economically) –need for recruitment-strategies to migrants  Increasing diversity –growing drop out rates –need for new didactical concepts for divers students Demographic development in Germany

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April – – 2030 Younger Group (20 – 25) Elder Group (60 – 65) Source: StBA 2004 – 10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, Variante 5 Demographic development in Germany in millions Progression of age group population development for and year-olds ( )

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Demographic development in Germany Predicted demand for HE Enrolments in Germany,

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Data Atlas for the German HE-System Two purposes:  Mapping and analysing local quantitative and qualitative impacts of demographic change on Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)  Creating a database for the development of recruitment and institutional strategies for European HEIs

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Data Atlas for the German HE-System Conclusions  Demographic change is not only a matter of quantitiy, but also quality  Regionally uneven demand  Higher rates of participation in HE can overcompensate the demographic change  Potential candidates have to be turned into enrolments  Domestic demand should not overrule internationalisation

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 University Konstanz Info-Box Overall number of first-year-students at the University Konstanz in 2005 (Educational Germans): Most resourceful districts 1.Kreis Konstanz: 12,3% (216) 2.Bodenseekreis: 6,7% (118) 3.Kreis Ravensburg: 4,7% (82) 4.Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis: 3,5% (61) 5.Kreis Tuttlingen: 3,2% (56) Most resourceful Länder 1.Baden-Württemberg:74,2% (1.304) 2.Bayern: 7,8% (137) 3.Nordrhein-Westfalen: 4,7% (83) Catchment Area Up to and more

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Info-Box Overall Number of first-year-students at the Universität Frankfurt in 2005 (Educational Germans): Most resourceful districts 1.Frankfurt a.M. (Stadt): 22,1% (956) 2.Main-Kinzig-Kreis: 8,0% (345) 3.Kreis Offenbach: 7,8% (338) 4.Hochtaunuskreis: 4,6% (200) 5.Offenbach a.M.: 3,9% (169) Most resourceful Länder 1.Hessen: 72,0% (3.107) 2.Baden-Württemberg: 7,7% (331) 3.Rheinland-Pfalz: 4,5% (193) 4.NRW: 4,3% (184) Catchment Area Up to and more University Frankfurt / Main

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs  Market analyses: –British Council „Vision 2020“ –IDP „Global Student Mobility 2025“ –CHE „Analysing the Future Market – Target Countries for German HEIs”  What can be the interests of HEIs in international students? –Quantitative: student numbers, return on investment –Qualitative: diversity, student performance, political aspects, reputation

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Global trends Demand of University Places in Mio. Sources: IDP and British Council

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Number of globally mobile students Sources: IDP and British Council

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs Germany How important is Germany for the target country? What is the quantitative potential of the target country? What is the importance of the target country for German HEIs? UNESCO’s Global Education Digest top 5 destination countries Size of age group 15-24, based on UN projection data Share of one country within the international student body in Germany (DAAD Data)

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs  How to analyse the markets? CHE approach: –Population: age group –Education: Participation rates (secondary, tertiary) Tuition fees –Economic: GDP per capita GINI coefficient Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) –Data related to Germany: Development of Bildungsausländer and first year students Enrolment requirements Country characteristics  17 countries analysed

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Important markets (new and old) for HEIs

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Market entry: highly individualised  Instruments: –Offshore –Education Cities –Degree franchising –Distance learning –Second campus at home –Direct recruitment –Vertical recruitment  Instruments and interests have to match (matrix)  5 case studies: Brazil, China, Poland, Turkey, USA

Christian Berthold, Uwe Brandenburg: CHE Consult, April 2008 Options for Poland  As resource country: –In the next 10 years, West-German HEIs overflooded with students because of short term demographic development –But: East German HEIs have large potential from now onwards!  As recruiting country: –Analysis of current situation needed –Differentiation between traditional resource countries and new target countries –Individualised strategies needed, market entry modes are crucial!