PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2-

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Presentation transcript:

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Climate Trends in the Philippines Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco ²

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA PAGASA-DOST The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations. MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and well- being & contribute to national development Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977 PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao) MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro) VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu) NCR (Quezon City) SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi) 5 Regional Centers PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment 58 Synoptic stations 23 Agromet stations 80 Climat/Rain stations 69 AWS 10M wind mast 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI) 75ARG 381 total 6 Upper air stations 10 Doppler radars (2 under construction) 2 Marine buoys 5 Telemetered major river basins 3 Satellite receivers

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines ( ) Departures from normal values An increase of 0.65°C from (60 years) Philippines mean temperature

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature Maximum & Minimum Temperature

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008) Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Hot days). Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008) Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the mean 1st percentile Cool Days Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the mean 1st percentile Cold nights

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Classification of Tropical Cyclones 1.Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph; 2.Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph; 3.Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set). s. Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1°x1° ( ) s. Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical cyclones EVERY YEAR Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: ( )

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: * Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: * Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines * Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above Neutral year El Niño year La Niña year

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period:

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Tropical cyclone statistics in PH DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD: TC NAMEDate of Occurrence Total damage in Billion PhP TY_PEPENG (Parma)Sep 30 - Oct TY PEDRINGSEP , TY FRANK (Fengshen)Jun 18 – 23, TY JUAN (Megi)Oct16 – 21, TS_ONDOY (Ketsana)Sep 24 – 27, TY_RUPINGNOV 8-14, DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties > 300 TC NAMEDate of Occurrence Casualti es TS Uring *Nov 1-6, TS Sendong (Washi) *Dec 15-17, TY NitangAug 31 – Sep 4, TY TrixOct 17-23, TY AmyDec 6-11, TY RosingOct 30-Nov 4, MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC TC NAME Maximum Wind (kph) Date of Occurrence TY Reming320 (Virac)Nov 30, 2006 TY Loleng287 (Virac)Oct 21, 1998 TY Anding280 (Virac)Nov 27, 1981 TY Sening276 (Virac)Oct 13, 1970 TY Wening269 (Aparri)Oct 27, 1974 TY Trining269 (Masbate)Dec 15, 1987 MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC TC NAME Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm) Date of Occurrence TY Feria (Baguio)July 4, 2001 TY Iliang994.6(Baguio)Oct 14, 1998 TY Trining979.4 (Baguio)Oct 17, 1967 TY Susang781.4 (Baguio)Oct 11, 1974 TY Trining760.0 (Baguio)Oct 27, 1991 TY Ditang730.3(Baguio)May 15, 1980 * The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods. Increasing cost of Damage

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage Severe flood damage

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution Neutral La NiñaEl Niño Wetter in the eastern part Wetter in the western part

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Climate Trends in Manila

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Manila An increase of 2.21 °C from (110 years)

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Manila

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Manila

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA Manila

PAGASA International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA