The popularity of the prophecies of Nostradamus shows no signs of declining. But it is something that we should regret. Many of the prophecies require that we do a lot of generous interpretation to make them work. (For example, his apparent prophecy of the attack on the World Trade Centre requires us to see the 'seventh month' of '1999' as meaning September 2001, and 'the great new city' 'at forty- five degrees' as being New York, though its latitude is at forty degrees.) It is obvious that the need for such interpretation means that people just make the prophecies fit with events that have already happened. In this way, the prophecies will always come true. Which of the following is the best statement of the main conclusion of the above argument? A The prophecies of Nostradamus can all be shown to be true. B The prophecies of Nostradamus are as popular as ever. C The continued popularity of the prophecies of Nostradamus is not to be welcomed. D People just make the prophecies of Nostradamus fit with what has already happened. E Many of the prophecies of Nostradamus have to be interpreted generously for them to appear to predict the future.

GRADETHRESHOLDPERCENTAGE OF CANDIDATESNUMBER OF CANDIDATES A B C D E U

MARVEBMARVEB Motives to lie Ability to see Reputation Vested Interest Experience / Expertise Bias

In the following passage you are given information about a dispute. Write a reasoned case in which you divide your answer as follows: (a) Assess the credibility of the evidence given by each participant/source. Make clear: How far this is influenced by any relevant factors e.g. what they could have seen, and any assumptions that need to be made. [12]

For each participant you should get down 3 points (just use bullet points, you do not have time to write sentences) referring to their credibility under the MARVEB criteria.

[b) Come to a reasoned judgement as to whether the CDs reached their destination. You should: Identify where there is corroboration and/or conflicting evidence. Outline the balance of evidence. Justify your judgement by discussing the weight and quality of the supporting evidence. [8] [Total Marks for Question One: 20]

Mark scheme gives the following marks; Judgement (saying who you believe) 1 Weight (explaining how many are on each side) 1 Balance (explaining who is on each side) 1 Links (making links between pieces of evidence) 2 Quality of Judgement (justifying your decision) 3