Top story of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hurricane Ike Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.

Ike’s non-U.S. impacts Cuba suffered $3-$4 billion in damage, and 2.6 million people were forced to evacuate (23% of the population) The Southeast Bahamas had $50-$200 million in damage. Additional heavy damage occurred on the nearby Turks and Caicos Islands. Haiti suffered the most from Ike, with 74 deaths and ruinous flooding.

Key West, saved again by the Hurricane Grotto!

A Reason to Worry: High Oceanic Heat Content

Ike’s Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) was higher than Katrina when it was at Category 5 strength

Total destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula

Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time 1.Katrina20053$81,000,000,000 2.Andrew (SE FL/SE LA)19925$34,954,825,000 3.Wilma (FL)20053$20,600,000,000 4.Ike (TX/LA/MS)*20082$19,300,000,000 5.Charley (FL)20044$14,000,000,000 6.Ivan (FL/AL)20043$13,000,000,000 7.Rita (LA/TX)20053$10,000,000,000 8.Hugo (SC)19894$9,739,820,675 9.Frances (FL)20042$8,860,000, Agnes (NE U.S.)19721$8,602,500,000 *Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

Largest U.S. Power Outages from a Weather Disaster 1.“Superstorm” Blizzard199310,000,000 people 2.Hurricane Ike20087,500,000 3.Hurricane Isabel20036,000,000 4.Hurricane Frances20046,000,000

Ike’s Death Toll: 30 th deadliest U.S. Hurricane 20 direct U.S. deaths 34 missing from Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula 64 indirect deaths in Texas 28 deaths in TN, OH, IN, IL, MO, KY, MI, PA 146 total dead and missing in the U.S.

What good came of Ike? Exposed inadequacies of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, prompting NHC to propose issuing special Storm Surge Warnings Portlight.org disaster relief charity born

Ike helped launched the Portlight.org disaster relief charity

A Preview of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.

Seasonal Predictions, December 2008: Dr. Bill Gray: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3.5 intense hurricanes Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes

African Dust Forecast

Since 1995—number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes 4 El Nino years1997 8,3, ,4, ,9, ,5,2 5 La Nina years199519,11, ,10, ,8, ,8, ,6,2 5 Neutral years199613,9, ,9, ,7, ,15, ,8,5

The wunderground.com March 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 14 named storms 7 hurricanes 3 intense hurricanes May the steering currents be your friend!

Costliest U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 RankDisasterYearDeathsDamage (2007 $$) 1.Hurricane Katrina $84,645,000,000 2.Midwest/Eastern Drought19887,500$71,200,000,000 3.Midwest/Eastern Drought198010,000$55,400,000,000 4.Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA199226$48,058,000,000 5.Midwest Flooding199348$30,200,000,000 6.Hurricane Wilma, FL200522$21,527,000,000 7.Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS200854$18,000,000,000 8.Hurricane Charley, FL200415$16,322,000,000 9.Midwest Floods200824$15,000,000, Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL200426$13,000,000,000

Borden and Cutter, 2008

Is the weather getting more extreme?

The National Climatic Data Center’s Climate Extremes Index: 1.Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 2.Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 3.Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus. 4.Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events. 5.Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.

Is the weather getting more extreme? Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in summer. No trends were noted in winter. 5 of the 15 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1997.

Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?

Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C. Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5- 10%. Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%. Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do times more damage than they do now.

But Sea Level Rise may be Underestimated

: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year. Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. No increases in storm intensity or frequency that might account for the increasing high water levels. Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997) …Which would lead to increased storm surge damage.

Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?

The Top 10 Most Expensive Weather Disasters of the Next 50 Years

10) Pacific Northwest Extratropical Storm Probability: 30% Damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane Probability: 60% 1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) New Orleans Hurricane Probability: 70% New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

7) Tampa Bay Hurricane Probability: 40% Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

6) Mississippi/Missouri River Flood Probability: 90% Waterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 flood

5) New England Hurricane Probability: 40% Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

4) Midwest Drought Probability: 90% Texas Drought, 2006

3) Miami Hurricane Probability: 80% Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

2) Southwest Drought Probability: 50% San Bruno California Fires, June 2008

1) Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structure Probability: 30% Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water