The Upper Rio Grande

Multi-objective River and Reservoir System Modeling Flood Control Water Supply Navigation Aquatic/Riparian Habitat Recreational Flows Water Quality Recreational Lake Levels Hydropower Weights/Penalties Priorities

n Multiple Uses - operational scheduling, forecasting, planning n Multiple solution methodologies - simulation, rulebased simulation, optimization n Operating policy expressed as data – create, view, change policies; see effects of policy on operations RiverWare is a General River and Reservoir System Modeling Tool that Meets These Requirements :

RiverWare is a General Reservoir and River System Modeling Tool that Meets These Requirements : n Easy to use – create complex physical process and policy models without writing computer code; point and click interface; Analyze results of model runs through GUI n Automatic Data Management Interface – import/export data from any source quickly n Extensible – add new features easily, reproduce results of old models n Supported / Maintained – new releases, user support, training

n Objects on Workspace Represent Features of the River and Reservoir System n Objects contain their own data n Objects contain their own physical process models n Objects know only about themselves - when they get a new value - how to use their data to simulate Object-Oriented Modeling Approach

Objects on the Palette and Their Methods Reservoirs Storage (mass balance, release, spill) Reservoirs Storage (mass balance, release, spill) Power Reservoirs Level (+ tailwater, power, energy, eis) Power Reservoirs Level (+ tailwater, power, energy, eis) Sloped ( + wedge storage) Sloped ( + wedge storage) Pumped Storage (+ pump/generators) Confluence - mass balance Confluence - mass balance Canal - bi-directional gravity flow Canal - bi-directional gravity flow River Reach - routing, water quality River Reach - routing, water quality AggDiversion Site - demands, consumption, return flow, available water AggDiversion Site - demands, consumption, return flow, available water Water User - demands, consumption, return flow Water User - demands, consumption, return flow Diversion - pumped or gravity diversion structure Diversion - pumped or gravity diversion structure Groundwater Storage - gw interaction for return flows, seepage, conjunctive use Groundwater Storage - gw interaction for return flows, seepage, conjunctive use AggDistribution Canal - calculates diversion schedules, routes flows AggDistribution Canal - calculates diversion schedules, routes flows Stream Gage - input for river gage data; propagates flow value u.s. and d.s. Stream Gage - input for river gage data; propagates flow value u.s. and d.s. Thermal Object - economics of thermal power system Thermal Object - economics of thermal power system Data Object - user-specified data Data Object - user-specified data

Three Solution Approaches 1. Simulation models physical processes for a variety of input/output combinations models physical processes for a variety of input/output combinations (upstream/downstream; forward/backward in time) 2. Rulebased Simulation simulation driven by user-specified operating rules (policy) expressed through an interpreted language 3. Optimization linear goal programming solution

USBR Applications of RiverWare  Colorado River – CRSS, 24-month study (stakeholders)  Lower Colorado EIS  San Juan – daily operations, EIS with USGS, BIA  Yakima – planning model  Upper Rio Grande – URGWOM with COE, USGS  Pecos – EIS with NMISC  Gunnison – policy analysis for environmental issues with NPS  Truckee River – accounting and daily operations  Umatilla – with BIA

Areas of Ongoing USBR-funded R&D  Water Accounting/Water Rights modeling  Enhancement to Rulebased Simulation to facilitate developing policy sets  Continued new physical processes and basin features modeled  Post processing and data connections

The Okavango Basin

Okavango Delta in Flood

Sharing Water: Towards a Transboundary Consensus on the Management of the Okavango Basin n Joint proposal by NHI and IUCN to develop and test a transparent decision-making model (WEAP) in the context of the Okavango Basin n Build regional capacity to manage complex transboundary river systems and apply conflict management tools n Develop a set of key parameters necessary to monitor ecological trends in the basin

Adaptive Management n Acting without knowing enough, and learning. n n Important management tool n n Acknowledges incomplete understanding n Acknowledges incomplete understanding n n Iterative process

Adaptive Management: the Process 1. Define measurable goals and objectives 2. Develop a conceptual model 3. Generate hypotheses 3. Generate hypotheses 4. Explicitly disclose assumptions and uncertainties 5. Develop numerical model(s) 6. Design management interventions 7. Implement interventionsMonitor, and analyze results 8. Adjust management interventions accordingly 9. Design new interventions 9. Design new interventions n

Lessons Learned n  Desired end conditions need to be clearly defined n  Monitoring needs to be tied to specific goals n  Our ignorance of ecosystems is uneven n  Pragmatism is fundamental n  “Battle of the Models” n  Institutional Issues

Restoring Aquatic Ecosystems: Delivering on the Promise of Adaptive Management n Analyze successes and pitfalls associated with adaptive management n Provide focused attention to further adaptive management practices - Yolo By-Pass, San Joaquin Basin, the Guadalupe River, and the Russian River n Advance the ability of NHI to assist in implementing adaptive management approaches in aquatic restoration