Supported by RES-H/C modelling for industry 2 nd Project Meeting London, 10 March 2009 Luuk Beurskens Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Contents Industry point of view for RES-H/C A closer look at temperature levels in industry Back-up solution: estimating energy per temperature level Constraints limiting the maximum potential Conclusions

RES-H/C modelling for industry Industry point of view on RES-H/C (based on NL) (I) For choice of locating industry “energy” is of secondary importance. More important are logistics and licensing for example. The subject “Renewable energy” is not in vocabulary of industrialists. “Energy-integrated industrial zones” are interesting from an energy perspective, but drawback is mutual dependence. Besides, this most often regards residual heat from fossil origin: not relevant for RES-H/C discussion. Some industries have residual streams from biogenic origin available. However: added value is much higher in other sectors than (local) energy production.

RES-H/C modelling for industry Industry point of view on RES-H/C (based on NL) (II) Preliminary conclusion: Renewable energy has a very bad starting position in the industry sector

RES-H/C modelling for industry Approach for Industry modelling 1.Determine consumption of heat and cold in industry: base year = 2005/6 2.Extrapolate to 2030 (based on PRIMES most recent scenario) 3.Determine maximum heat and cold consumption per temperature level 4.Determine energy carriers used per temperature level 5.Determine cost of conventional energy carriers 6.Determine cost of renewable energy carriers 7.Determine cost benefit ratio 8.Apply criteria for determining penetration under certain policy assumptions

RES-H/C modelling for industry Approach for Industry modelling 1.Determine consumption of heat and cold in industry: base year = 2005/6 OK 2.Extrapolate to 2030 (based on PRIMES most recent scenario) OK 3.Determine maximum heat and cold consumption per temperature level USE SAME APPROACH FOR ALL COUNTRIES 4.Determine energy carriers used per temperature level TRICKY! 5.Determine cost of conventional energy carriers OK 6.Determine cost of renewable energy carriers OK 7.Determine cost benefit ratio OK 8.Apply criteria for determining penetration under certain policy assumptions EXPERT JUDGEMENT INVOLVED – NO HARD CRITERION

RES-H/C modelling for industry A closer look at temperature levels in industry (I) Temperature levels in industry

RES-H/C modelling for industry A closer look at temperature levels in industry (II) Matching of temperature levels to technologies

RES-H/C modelling for industry Back-up solution: estimating energy per temperature level Data from a uniform and mutual consistent source: Odyssee Indicators, Information for all 27 EU Member States Information on energy use in 14 industry sectors Additional assumptions needed for: ─Share of heat in total energy use ─EU-wide uniform temperature levels per industry sector ─Allocate conventional energy carriers to temperature level >> this exercise has been performed for all countries

RES-H/C modelling for industry Austria (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Greece (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Lithuania (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Netherlands (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Poland (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry United Kingdom (draft data, Mtoe)

RES-H/C modelling for industry Constraints limiting the maximum potential Once the total energy demand per temperature level are known, these can be matched to the technologies suitable for that level. However, other circumstances limit the realisable potential for RES-H/C technologies in industry: ─Sector-specific requirements ─Non-financial barriers ─Power and capacity requirements ─The existing energy technologies in place (wait for natural moment for replacement) ─Cost-benefit ratio ─Etc.

RES-H/C modelling for industry Conclusions RES-H/C and industry are not natural allies RES-H/C technologies perform best at their own, technology-specific, temperature level By applying generic assumptions, data from the Odyssee Indicator project allow to estimate energy demand in industry subdivided into temperature level Assumption: fuels used in each temperature level have same distribution as in overall industry mix Additional, country-specific assumptions on suitability of RES-H/C options, further limit the potential

RES-H/C modelling for industry Thank you for your attention