Outlook for Private Equity Real Estate Market

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for Private Equity Real Estate Market 17th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference April 30, 2012 Presented By: Alan Billingsley, Head of Research Americas, 1(415) 262-2017, alan.billingsley@rreef.com

Private Equity Real Estate Observations: April 2012 U.S. real estate markets moving from recovery to growth Apartments are in accelerated growth phase Huge regional dispersion in economic recovery Capital markets are ahead of fundamentals (for primary markets) Future yields on par with long-term historic yields However, yield spreads are at historic highs

Real Estate Moving from Recovery into Growth Cycle National Vacancy Rate Trends and Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apartment 6.8% 8.2% 6.7% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 4.9% 5.5% Industrial 11.8% 14.3% 13.5% 12.3% 11.1% 10.3% 10.2% Office 14.2% 16.6% 16.5% 16.1% 15.5% 12.6% 12.0% Retail 8.7% 10.7% 10.8% 9.6% 9.3% 9.0% 9.1% *Office properties experienced higher vacancy rates during the 1990’s downturn, but all other properties hit historical highs. Forecasts are of the market and not of a RREEF product. Sources: REIS Reports, CBRE-EA, RREEF. As of January 2012.

U.S. Average Rent Growth by Sector CBD office will be top performer Retail stable due to lease structure Apartment growth will recede U.S. Average Rent Growth *Industrial and Retail are forecast on NNN basis. Apartments and Office are forecast based on Gross Rents, and these are converted to NNN equivalent , assuming 2% per year expense increases, for consistency in comparison across sectors . Data represents the unweighted average of markets surveyed by RREEF Real Estate. Source: RREEF Real Estate. As of February 2012.

Capitalization Rates are Stabilizing U.S. Transaction Capitalization Rates 1Q2001 to 1Q2012 Sources: Real Capital Analytics and RREEF. As of April 2012.

Total real estate return: rapid recovery NCREIF Property Index: Trailing 12-Month Total Returns Source: NCREIF Property Index; Trailing 12-Month Returns. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As of April 2012.

Significant Dispersion in Economic Recovery by Metro Drivers: Health care Technology Professional services Manufacturing Energy Seattle Portland Minneapolis Boston New York Chicago Baltimore Denver San Francisco Washington DC Oakland San Jose Raleigh Riverside Charlotte Los Angeles Orange County Phoenix San Jose and San Francisco were late-in metros. New York only lost 4% of jobs peak to trough, on par with Austin. Las Vegas Peak-to-Trough was 14% San Diego Atlanta Dallas Outstanding Growth Solid Growth Strong Late Recovery Metro Markets: Austin Orlando West Palm Beach Houston Fort Lauderdale Miami Note: Includes cities with over 500k jobs. Sources: Economy.com & RREEF Real Estate as of April 2012. All assets represented on a consolidated basis. 7

Demand Shifts for Real Estate in 2010 Decade Office Higher density worker space/mobility Suburban to urban shift will continue Industrial Distribution moving closer to customer/infill Large warehouse leads recovery; flex will follow Panama Canal Retail “Hour-Glass” effect supports luxury and Wal-Mart Sales productivity improving in shop space Retail downsizing Apartments Urban and mixed-use remain in favor High cost housing markets will outperform Demographic trends highly favorable Source: RREEF. As of March 2011.

Property Markets: Summary of 2012-2013 Outlook Apartments perform well in 2012-2013, but growth will slow Industrial sector could be the star in 2012-2013 Retail – a highly selective sector, but strong centers will be stable Office – latest to recover with urban outperforming Urban vs. “commodity” suburban will outperform in all sectors Target metros – where greatest economic value created Source: RREEF Real Estate . As of February 2012.

Important Notes © 2012. All rights reserved. RREEF Real Estate, part of RREEF Alternatives, the alternative investments business of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management division of Deutsche Bank AG offers a range of real estate investment strategies, including: core and value-added and opportunistic real estate, real estate debt, and real estate and infrastructure securities. In the United States RREEF Real Estate relates to the asset management activities of RREEF America L.L.C., and Deutsche Investment Management Americas Inc.; in Germany: RREEF Investment GmbH, RREEF Management GmbH and RREEF Spezial Invest GmbH; in Australia: Deutsche Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 63 116 232 154) an Australian financial services license holder; in Japan: Deutsche Securities Inc. (For DSI, financial advisory (not investment advisory) and distribution services only); in Hong Kong: Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Hong Kong Branch (for RREEF Real Estate’s direct real estate business), and Deutsche Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (for RREEF Real Estate’s real estate securities business); in Singapore: Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (Company Reg. No. 198701485N); in the United Kingdom: Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (UK) Limited, Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (Global) Limited and Deutsche Asset Management (UK) Limited; in Italy: RREEF Fondimmobiliari SGR S.p.A.; and in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden: Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (UK) Limited and Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (Global) Limited; in addition to other regional entities in the Deutsche Bank Group. Key RREEF Real Estate research personnel are voting members of various RREEF Real Estate investment committees. Members of the investment committees vote with respect to underlying investments and/or transactions and certain other matters subjected to a vote of such investment committee. Additionally, research personnel receive, and may in the future receive incentive compensation based on the performance of a certain investment accounts and investment vehicles managed by RREEF Real Estate and its affiliates. This material was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. It is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, solicitation, the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. Neither Deutsche Bank AG nor any of its affiliates gives any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this document. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, no member of the Deutsche Bank Group, the Issuer or any officer, employee or associate of them accepts any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person. The views expressed in this document constitute Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates’ judgment at the time of issue and are subject to change. This document is only for professional investors. This document was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. No further distribution is allowed without prior written consent of the Issuer. An investment in real estate involves a high degree of risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested, and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear such losses. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall or rise. Any forecasts provided herein are based upon RREEF Real Estate’s opinion of the market at this date and are subject to change dependent on the market. Past performance or any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets is not indicative of future performance. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance.