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Youth Aspirations and Sense of Place in a Changing Rural Economy: The Coos Youth Study Presented by: Nena Stracuzzi, Ph.D. Carsey Institute University of New Hampshire Durham, New Hampshire 2 Prepared for: Supporting Rural Schools & Communities Research Conference Prepared for: Supporting Rural Schools & Communities Research Conference November 5 - 6, 2009

Coos Youth Study Longitudinal panel study tracking two cohorts of youth in northern New Hampshire Overview –Background Context for this study –Purpose of the Study –Methods –Research Question for Today’s Discussion –Findings –Implications 3

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Context 1990 – 2004, New Hampshire’s young adult population ages declined by 27%, exceeding that of 46 other states in the country Coos County, NH (already in serious economic decline as a result of manufacturing loss) particularly hard hit, losing 38% of their young adults The loss of youth from rural areas further compromises the well-being of rural NH communities, families, and individuals 6

7 Population loss widespread in northern and central Coos County

Study Goals Our aims, broadly defined, are to gain a greater understanding of: – the obstacles rural youth face while transitioning to adulthood; –the conditions under which rural youth achieve the goals they set for themselves (or not); and –the social contexts in which rural youth make their decisions to remain in their communities of origin or to seek opportunities elsewhere. 8

We are exploring youths’... aspirations for future academic and economic success; beliefs about economic opportunities within local communities; attachment to the North Country region; exposure to the broader world through technology; and satisfaction with family, peer, school, and community relationships.

Three Dimensions of Well-being Integration –sense of belonging within a given social context (family, school, friends, community). Aspiration –towards higher education, starting families, becoming financially independent, becoming engaged in their communities Transition –Successfully transitioning into adulthood

Methods Panel study tracking... –Two cohorts (7 th /11 th grade in 2008) –5 school districts 7 high schools; 9 middle schools Paper & Pencil Surveys –30-40 minutes to complete Questions re: relationships with friends and family, feelings about school and community, educational aspirations, beliefs & behaviors 11

Wave I Completed Feb 2008 –78% response rate (656) 7 th Graders (n = 316) 11 th Graders (n = 341) –60 in-depth interviews with 30 7 th grade students and their mothers. Wave II Completed June 2009 –(N = 678) –BUT, many are new students; 76 still missing from first wave –Missing students primarily seniors –Working on finding them , Phone, Facebook

Facebook 147 Friends Our profile picture name number name

14 Selected Findings from Wave I Examination of Youth’s Educational Aspirations Across Family, Peer, School, and Community Domains

Demographics N = 656

16 Coos County Students Have High Aspirations

DEPENDENT VARIABLES 1 ) Likelihood of Graduating From College 2) Likelihood of Getting a Full Time Job >High School Four Domains: Family, Peer, School & Community

Family Independent Variables –Close to mom (α =.89) (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with) –Close to dad (α =.93) (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with) –Help with future plans by mom (α =.91) (educational, career, family) –Help with future plans by dad (α =.76) (educational, career, family) –Parents messages re: Importance of going to college Importance of having successful careers Importance of living close to them

Independent Variables female (+) parents’ messages - college important (+) mom’s help w/future plans (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) parents’ messages - college important (-) - live close (+) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

Peers Independent Variables –Friends planning to go to college –Friends doing well in school –Friends plan to get a job out of high school –Friends encourage you to do your best in school –Popularity (α =.88) (kids think I’m fun, lots of friends, invitations, texts, s, et cetera) –Importance of popularity (α =.83) (important to be popular, have lots of friends, others think you’re fun, et cetera)

Independent Variables female (+) friends... - plan go to college (+) - plan to get a job > HS (-) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) friends... - plan to go to college (-) - plan to get a job > HS(+) popularity (+) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

School Independent Variables –Grades –Reasons for Coming to School Enjoy academic subjects Have to Need for job or diploma Need for college –Sense of Belonging (α =.83) (feel like belong at school, students accept me, teachers willing to help with personal problems, teachers expect best, et cetera) –School Activities (α =.71) (student government, band, honor society, academic clubs, et cetera)

Independent Variables grades (+) reason for attending school -need for college(+) school activities (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) grades (-) reason for attending school - have to (+) - need for college (-) - need for diploma or job (+) school activities (-) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

Community Independent Variables –Mother raised in community –Father raised in community –Grandparent raised in community –Positive feelings about the community (α =.89) (people: can be trusted, help their neighbors, are caring and friendly; this is a close-knit community, my community is safe, et cetera) –Negative feelings about the community (α =.87) (people in this community: like to gossip, are rude, judge others unfairly; there is nothing to do, it is boring, isolated from other communities, et cetera) –Community activities (α =.70) (4-H, church groups, community service clubs, hobby clubs, sports, et cetera)

Independent Variables female (+) community activities (+) positive community feelings (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) positive community feelings (-) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full time Job > HS

26 FINAL MODELS: Predictors of Educational Aspirations Among Family, Peer, School and Community Domains

INDEPENDENT VARIABLESCollegeJob FAMILY Mom helps with plans Parents’ Messages - importance of college.358*** living close by ** FRIENDS Friends planning to go to college.099*-.107* Friends planning on getting job after high school *** Popularity SCHOOL Grades.160***-.100* Reasons for - have to need for job/diploma * - need for college.347***-.129*** Belonging School activity participation.131**-.148** COMMUNITY Community activity participation Positive community feelings ***p <.001 **p<.01 *p<.05 +p<.07 FINAL MODELS Predictors of Aspirations (college/job); Standardized Regression Coefficients

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