Tracking Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas Robert L. Brown Association for Public Data Users Washington, DC September 25, 2009

2 BEA Regional Personal Income ▪ Consistent time series with BEA national statistics ▪ Timely  State—3 months  Metro—8 months  County—12-16 months ▪ Industrial structure of earnings and compensation

3 Nationwide ▪ 2008 US personal income growth 3.3%  Down from 6.0% in 2007 ▪ Of the 366 metro areas…  322 (88%) metro areas slowed  42 (11%) metro areas increased in growth

4 US Industry Compensation

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6 Metro Growth Declines ▪ Personal income declined in 5 small MSAs  Manufacturing caused 4 declines  Dalton, GA (-0.6%)  Monroe, MI (-0.7%)  Elkhart, IN (-2.7%)  Kokomo, IN (-3.5)  Hurricane Katrina after-effects  Gulfport, MS (-2.4%)

7 5 Slowest Growing Large Metros ▪ In Sunbelt  San Jose, CA (0.9%)--Manufacturing  Phoenix, AZ (1.3%)--Construction  Jacksonville, FL (1.5%)--Construction  Tampa, FL (1.7%)--Construction ▪ In Great Lakes  Detroit (1.3%)--Manufacturing

8 Fastest Growing Metros ▪ Benefitting from high oil prices  Midland, TX (11.5%)  Odessa, TX (11.1%)  Grand Junction, CO (10.2%) ▪ Benefitting from Military “Grow the Force” Initiative  Jacksonville, NC (11.2%)  Manhattan, KS (9.7%)  Hinesville, GA (9.2%)

9 Fastest Growing Metros ▪ Benefitting from Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Payments  Fairbanks, AK (9.1%)  Anchorage, AK (8.8%)

10 Fast Growing Large Metros ▪ 5 of 6 fastest in Texas and Oklahoma  Mining and construction  Oklahoma City, OK (6.9%)  Houston, TX (6.3%)  San Antonio, TX (5.4%) Construction only  Dallas-Fort Worth, TX (4.6%)  State government  Austin, TX (5.4%) ▪ St. Louis, MO food and beverage (5.6%)

11 Economic Stimulus Payments ▪ $24.7 billion in tax rebates from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 ▪ Accounts for 0.2% of US growth in 2008 ▪ More to lower per capita income metros in Southeast and to Mexican border metros

12 Summary ▪ Slow metro growth concentrated in Great Lakes, Florida, California, and Arizona  Due to Manufacturing and Construction ▪ Fast metro growth concentrated in Texas and Oklahoma  Mostly due to Mining and Construction

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