Reconnecting the Public with the European Union The role of referendums

Referendums as high quality engagement? Chance for high quality democracy Citizens can reflect on relationship with EU Consider various views Calmly reflect upon evidence Vote in the referendum on the relationship they want with the EU Referendums allow for direct democracy Clearly allow citizens to have a say on the EU issue

Referendums as just more party politics? Not a chance for high quality deliberation Voters don’t think about the EU in an ‘EU referendum’ Use referendum as way to ‘protest vote’ against the government OR just follow party lines Hence, can’t defend referendums as a way of ‘connecting with the public’ on the EU issue

Which interpretation is correct? Look at the case of the Republic of Ireland Recent referendums on – Nice Treaty – Lisbon Treaty – Fiscal Compact Treaty Look at lessons to be learned from these cases

Lesson 1: Campaigning Matters Nice Treaty rejected and then passed in a second referendum Nice 1: very low intensity campaign – Politicians not active – Not much media coverage – Low levels public knowledge Nice 2: very high intensity campaign – Politicians very active – A lot of media coverage – High levels of public knowledge

Lesson 1: Campaigning Matters Survey evidence from Nice 1 and Nice 2 EU issues more important than ‘party politics’ at both referendums BUT issues a lot more important than ‘party politics’ at Nice 2 More intense campaigning, more likely issues matter Intense campaigning makes issues more important and hence more democratic ‘connection’ with voters

Lesson 2: Different ‘levels’ of EU issues Substantive EU issues may be of two types Ideological – Underlying attitudes: Euro-sceptic v. Euro-enthusiast Specific issues – Distinct economic, cultural or defence issues – Specific issue relating to the particular EU treaty or the specific reason for holding the referendum

Lesson 2: Different ‘levels’ of EU issues Lisbon Treaty rejected and then passed in a second referendum Survey evidence compared the relative importance of ideology and specific issues Specific issues more important than underlying ideology Evidence for democratic engagement rather than merely reliance on underlying ideology?

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums Distinct negative emotions Anger vs. fear Fear: deliberation, calm reflection, learning to address threat and minimise bad consequences Anger: Moral thinking, blame whoever is responsible, punish them when voting

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums Fiscal Compact Treaty Ireland bankrupt Lots of scope for anger and fear Anger: protest against government, party politics Fear: rationally consider the implication of passing/rejecting the treaty

Lesson 3: Emotions and Voting in EU Referendums Survey evidence Angry citizens more likely to rely on protest/ party politics voting Fearful/ anxious voters more likely to rely on issue- based voting Anxiety driven voting is more ‘democratic’, more in line with voting on relevant EU issues

Northern Ireland and the EU issue Would people vote on EU issue or on usual party politics Difficult test case given predominance of the ‘ethno- national issue’ BUT the EU issue does drive voting when the context makes the EU important... European Parliament elections Drives choice between Sinn Fein and SDLP

Northern Ireland and the EU issue So, at least some scope for it to play a distinct and independent role......when the context makes it the important issue AND a clear choice is provided