Climate change: What it means for our organisation Based on a presentation produced by the Scottish Climate Impacts Partnership

Contents 1.Climate change: Introduction 2.Climate change impacts 3.Preparing for a changing climate 4.Next steps

1. Climate change: Introduction

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” Robert A. Heinlein Climate is a long term average of weather (usually over 30 years) and trends in these average conditions are climate change. Weather is what we experience hour-to-hour, day-to-day or even year-to-year, and as anyone living in Wales will know, it can be highly variable. On occasion weather may even appear at odds with long-term climate change (e.g. cold winters in 2009 and 2010). What’s the difference between climate and weather?

© Change in Global Average Temperature 1850 – 2010 (relative to mean)

Wales’ climate has already changed Observed changes in Wales’ climate ( ) Temperature The annual daily mean temperature has increased by 0.70ºC. The daily mean temperature has increased in all seasons, from 0.47ºC in winter to 0.99ºC in autumn. Rainfall Total annual precipitation has declined by 0.9%. This masks significant seasonal changes – a 12.8% increase in spring and a 24% decrease in summer, for example. Sea level Sea level around the UK rose by about 1mm/yr in the 20th century, corrected for land movement. The rate for the 1990s and 2000s has been higher than this. Data taken from ‘ The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends ’ (2009), available at

Wales is already affected by the weather Extracts taken from BBC News Wales website on dates shown.

The latest climate projections suggest that Wales will see: Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter winters We can also expect to see: More intense rainfall events Less snowfall and frost Continued sea level rise How the Welsh climate is projected to change The latest projections, UKCP09, are available from

Change in Summer Mean Daily Temperature (°C) 2050s - Medium emissions scenario Hotter, drier summers 10% probability level: Very unlikely to be less than 50% probability level: Central estimate 90% probability level: Very unlikely to be more than

Milder, wetter winters Change in Winter Mean Precipitation (%) 2050s - Medium emissions scenario 10% probability level: Very unlikely to be less than 50% probability level: Central estimate 90% probability level: Very unlikely to be more than

2. Climate change impacts

More flooding More droughts and water shortages More heat waves And many more…

Tourism More people may choose to visit Wales in summer months More winter rainfall and an increased risk of severe storms may have an impact on the ‘out-of-season’ market Buildings and infrastructure It may be difficult to maintain acceptable working conditions indoors in summer Disruption to rail and road travel Flooding Businesses may experience more disruption to premises and supply chains Insurance premiums may increase Some impacts on our economy

Heatwaves Heatwaves can cause dehydration and hyperthermia, which can in extreme cases lead to shock, organ failure and even death Water usage and quality Less precipitation during the summer will reduce availability, and warmer summers will increase demand More intense precipitation events will increase run-off, affecting water quality Flooding Few direct deaths but analysis of recent flooding incidents in the UK shows that mental health problems are the most important health impact due to experience of personal and economic loss and stress Some impacts on our society

Agriculture Warmer temperatures and a longer growing season offer the potential for new crops However, good water management will be required to achieve this potential because of drier summers and pressures on water abstraction Plant and animal health Plants and animals may be subjected to ‘new’ diseases – those more usually associated with warmer climates Soil The combination of intense rainfall and periods of drought will increase soil damage and erosion Biodiversity Migration or loss of climate-sensitive species Some impacts on our natural environment

Impacts elsewhere in the world The 2011 Foresight project International Dimensions of Climate Change investigated how the UK is likely to be affected by global climate change over the next 30 years and beyond. Impacts include: Political and social instability Disruption to essential infrastructure serving global markets and energy supplies

3. Preparing for a changing climate …also known as adaptation

What does it mean? It is not purely a ‘green’ issue. Planning for climate change can be seen as planning to ensure business continuity. Nor is it entirely new. It is likely that many organisations are already doing it if they deal with weather-related risks. It is also about exploiting opportunities brought about by climate change e.g. growing new crops. Preparing for a changing climate involves investigating and planning for these impacts and their consequences Emissions of greenhouse gases are already having an impact on our weather and climate, and this is expected to become more significant in the years to come.

Benefits of preparing for climate change By taking early action to prepare we can: Identify services, facilities, locations and communities that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts Identify cost effective actions that build resilience Improve the capacity of stakeholder organisations to adapt to the impacts of climate change …

Ensure that climate change impacts are considered as part of business continuity and emergency planning Exploit business opportunities that may emerge as a result of changes in climate Maintain reputation for delivering quality and effective services in spite of the challenge of climate change. Benefits of a planned approach

Climate Change Act (2008): Guidance Welsh Ministers have the power to issue guidance that deals with: assessing the current and predicted impact of climate change preparing proposals and policies to adapt to climate change co-operating when adapting to climate change Note: This presentation comes from Part 1 of the Guidance

Climate Change Act (2008): Power of direction Welsh Ministers also have the power to direct certain organisations to produce a report detailing the risks they face from climate change and their plans for addressing those risks. Following consultation early in 2011, it is the intention of the Welsh Ministers not to issue directions in the first instance, but Ministers reserve the power to do so where organisations are found to not be taking adequate action to address the impacts of climate change.

To assess risks to the UK of current and predicted impacts of climate change to 2100 To include a Wales Report outlining the priority risks facing Wales across eleven sectors: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Business, Built environment, Energy, Flooding, Forestry, Health, Marine, Transport, Water To be laid before Parliament in January 2012 Climate Change Act 2008: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Welsh Commitment to Address Climate Change (2006) Signed by all 22 local authorities, the three National Park Authorities, and Fire and Rescue Services, the Welsh Commitment to Address Climate Change recognises that climate change “is likely to be one of the key drivers of change in our communities this century” Among other things, signatories committed to: considering climate change issues in Community Strategies working with key building operators e.g. health authorities to seek ways to prepare for climate change impacts monitoring the progress of plans against the actions needed and publish the results

Welsh Government Adaptation Framework Three pillars: 1.Building the evidence base 2.Mainstreaming adaptation 3.Communicating adaptation Adaptation Delivery Plan

4. Next steps

Review our existing work Are we already doing work that will help us prepare for climate change? Are there plans / policies already in place that should include actions to help us prepare for climate change? This step can help us to identify where we are doing well and highlight opportunities for integrating action effectively into appropriate plans and policies. Developing a planned approach: First steps

Assess the impact of past weather events on our organisation How vulnerable are we to current weather? This step may involve a Local Climate Impact Profile project and / or undertaking a series of workshops with key departments and stakeholders. Developing a planned approach: First steps

An early look at how climate change will affect our organisation How might we be affected by the projected changes in climate? This step may involve a brainstorming session. Developing a planned approach: First steps

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