MBA SIM Fund Board Presentation April 30, 2010. 2 2 2009-2010 Student Managers Spencer Rands W.P. Carey MBA Finance & Real Estate Class of 2010 Eric Dalbom.

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Presentation transcript:

MBA SIM Fund Board Presentation April 30, 2010

Student Managers Spencer Rands W.P. Carey MBA Finance & Real Estate Class of 2010 Eric Dalbom W.P. Carey MBA Finance & Real Estate Class of 2010 Himanshu Gupta W.P. Carey MBA Supply Chain Finance Class of 2010 Andrew Harbut W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2010 Matt Pendleton W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2010 Perrin Gayle W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2010

3 Agenda  Overview  Portfolio Performance  Economic Climate & Outlook  Portfolio Highlights  Attribution Analysis  Takeaways

4 Overview

5 Fund Guidelines  Long-term investment strategy  Minimum 75% equities  Maximum 20% fixed income  Maximum 10% cash  $500MM minimum market cap  No short selling  Limits on derivatives

6 Style Selection  Style: Midcap Growth  Market Cap: $2b - $10b  Benchmark  Russell Midcap Growth Index (RDG)  Asset Allocation  Equities: 92%  Fixed Income: 5%  Cash: 3%

7 Portfolio Analysis

8 Fund Characteristics SIM Fund Russell Midcap Growth Market Cap ($B)6, , Dividend Yield Trailing P/E Forward P/E ROA ROE

9 Fund Performance Spring Results: 11/20/09 – 4/16/10 11/19 Portfolio Value $316,902 4/16 Portfolio Value $372,408 (17.52%) 4/16 RDG Value $370,322 (16.86%)

10 Fund Performance Cumulative Return: 10/5/09 – 4/16/10 10/4 Portfolio Value $322,608 4/16 Portfolio Value $372,408 (15.44%) 11/19 Portfolio Value $316,902 (-1.77%) 4/16 RDG Value $395,691 (22.65%)

11 Fund Performance Holding Period Returns by Security 11/20/09 – 4/16/10

12 Economic Climate & Outlook

13 Economic Outlook  In December, we thought…  There would be a continuing recovery  Unemployment would remain high  Consumer confidence would increase  Housing prices would stabilize  …and we were correct.

14 Economic Climate

15 Equity Sector Allocation

16 Looking Forward 6 Months  Uncertainty around US$  Continued domestic real GDP growth  Exports  PCE  Economic risk in China  Domestic Sectors  Overweight: Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary  Underweight: Financials, Utilities

17 Decision Process

18 Decision Process  Fresh perspective from a different analyst  Is the industry still poised to outperform the market?  Is this firm the best in its industry?  Are the fundamentals still strong?  Qualitative factors Stock Reevaluations

19 Decision Process Example: Aeropostale (ARO)  Down 25% last time we met  Industry questionable, but…  Price-point fits economic conditions  Excellent inventory management  Avoidance of deep discounts  Poised to gain market share from competitors  Recommendation: HOLD

20 Nov. 20 ($21.24) Aeropostale (ARO) Source: Google Finance

21 Decision Process Example: Apollo Group (APOL)  Industry still strong  Strong revenue growth (domestic & int’l)  Underpriced (P/E)  But…  concerns about patterns of ethical issues and regulatory pressure keep the stock price low  Recommendation: SELL

22 Sold Feb. $60.10 Apollo Group (APOL) Source: Google Finance

23 Decision Process  Missed Q4 earnings  Litigation Risk  Volatility Concerns  Recommendation: SELL Example: Tessera (TSRA) Sold Jan $18.44 Source: Google Finance

24 Decision Process Example: Forest Laboratories (FRX) & Cephalon (CEPH)  Attractive industry  Healthcare Bill  Cephalon nearing price target  Forest Labs undervalued  Reduced holding in CEPH, bought FRX

25 Forest Labs (FRX) & Cephalon (CEPH)  4/7: FDA panel votes against Forest Lab’s Daxas drug Source: Google Finance

26 Performance Attribution

27  Equity return: 18.2%  Benchmark return: 17.1%  Alpha: 1.1% What contributed to the positive alpha? Performance Attribution

28 Performance Attribution 1.1% Data Source: Fifth Third Asset Management

29 Allocation Effect Data Source: Fifth Third Asset Management* Fund was not invested in sector

30 Selection Effect Data Source: Fifth Third Asset Management

31 Risk-adjusted Performance How did the Fund perform on a risk-adjusted basis? Higher return + Lower volatility = Higher risk-adjusted performance SIM Fund Russell Midcap GrowthS&P 500 Annualized return41.96%40.51%21.57% Standard deviation12.96%14.52%13.23% Sharpe Ratio

32 Takeaways

33 Learning Points  Start with an economic outlook  Importance of style selection & allocation  Value of strong fundamentals  Look beyond the numbers  Long-term perspective  ADR reporting issues

34 Thank You  Thank you to:  Board of Directors  Keith Wirtz, Justin Dammel, and Fifth Third  Jeanne Elliott  Herb Kaufman

Student Managers Amol Agarwal W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2011 Joe Downs W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2011 Jonathan Kielmeyer W.P. Carey MBA Finance & Marketing Class of 2011 Andrew Harper W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2011 Benjamin Hawthorne W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2011 Jameson Bennett W.P. Carey MBA Finance & Real Estate Class of 2011 Praveen Gujar W.P. Carey MBA Finance Class of 2011 Andre Shearer W.P. Carey MBA/MSIM Finance Class of 2011