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Presentation transcript:

Environmental Science Unit 4 - Risk, Toxicology, & Human Health (STE 7th ed. Chapter 11)

Where are we going? - Types of hazards - Toxicology Chemical hazards Biological hazards - Risk Analysis estimating risk, major risks, issues

Types of Hazards Risk is a measure of the possibility of experiencing a hazard that can cause harm expressed as a probability; 1 in 200, 1 in 1000 etc. e.g. risk of death from flying in US 1 in 7,000,000 risk assessment involves estimation of the probability of harm to human health, society, or the environment that may result from exposure to specific hazards risk management involves the decision to reduce a risk and the costs associated

Types of Hazards http://www.snh.org.uk/publications/on-line/heritagemanagement/uplandpathmanagement/3.4.shtml Identify the (i) Risk, (ii) Hazard and (iii) Risk Management

Types of Hazards Risk as a Probability NYT Jan 29th 1995 http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE2D6173DF93AA15752C0A963958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all NYT Jan 29th 1995

NOVA How Risky is Flying? http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html How Risky Is Flying? by David Ropeik Trying to judge whether a particular risk is big or small is, well, a risky business. There's a lot more to it than you might think. Flying in airplanes is a case in point. You'd think that you could just find out the numbers—the odds—and that would be it. The annual risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11 million. On that basis, the risk looks pretty small. Compare that, for example, to the annual risk of being killed in a motor vehicle crash for the average American, which is about 1 in 5,000. But if you think about those numbers, problems crop up right away. First of all, you are not the average American. Nobody is. Some people fly more and some fly less and some don't fly at all. So if you take the total number of people killed in commercial plane crashes and divide that into the total population, the result, the risk for the average American, may be a good general guide to whether the risk is big or small, but it's not specific to your personal risk. Then there's another numbers problem: what denominator are you using? (For the math-challenged, like me, that's the number at the bottom of a fraction.) You can calculate the risk of flying by: Dividing the number of people who die into the total number of people, which gives you the risk for the average person; Dividing the number of victims into the number of total flights all passengers took, which gives the risk per flight; Or Dividing the number of victims into the total number of miles all of them flew, which gives you the risk per mile. They all produce accurate numbers, but which one is most relevant to you depends on your personal flying patterns. Some fliers take lots of short flights and some take longer ones, for example. Since the overwhelming majority of the few plane crashes that do occur take place in connection with takeoffs and landings, the risk is less a matter of how far you fly and more a matter of how often. If you're a frequent flier, then the risk per flight means more. For occasional long-distance fliers, the risk per mile means more. A frequent, long-distance flier would want to consider both. Here's another number problem with the risk of flying: do you calculate the risk on the basis of one year, or an average of five years, or 10, or 20? Most years no plane crashes occur, or at least very few. So the number of victims per year goes up radically in years when there are crashes. Just look at the spikes in the number of deaths from plane crashes by year in the graph at right. Risk perception is not just a matter of the facts. So to calculate the risk per year can be misleading. One really bad year would skew the numbers toward the more frightening. A year with no crashes makes it look like it's zero. But if you average things over, say, five years, or 10, some other factors muddy the waters. In the last five years safety factors have changed. Advanced weather radar has been installed near major airports, and new FAA rules have gone into effect. A 10-year average might be misleading too. It would include the aberration of September 11, 2001. Despite all these caveats, numbers are a great way to put risk in general perspective, and there is no question that by most metrics, flying is a less risky way to travel than most others. But wait: just when you thought it was safe to use numbers to put risk in perspective... Numbers are not the only way—not even the most important way—we judge what to be afraid of. Risk perception is not just a matter of the facts. It's also a matter of the other things we know (e.g., airline companies are in financial trouble) and our experiences (maybe you took a really scary, turbulent flight once) and our life circumstances (my wife was more afraid of flying when our kids were little). And on top of all that, several general characteristics make some risks feel scarier than others. Researchers in psychology like Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff have found that when we have control (like when we're driving) we're less afraid, and when we don't have control (like when we're flying) we're more afraid. That probably explains why, in the first few months after the 9/11 attacks, fewer people flew and more people chose to drive. Driving, with its sense of control, feels safer. Studies at Cornell and the University of Michigan estimate that between 700 and 1,000 more people died in motor vehicle crashes from October through December of 2001 than during the same three months the year before. Another "feelings factor" that informs our perception of risk is awareness. The more aware of a risk we are, the more concerned about it we are. Which explains why, when there is a plane crash in the news, flying seems scarier to many of us, even though that one crash hasn't changed the overall statistical risk much. People are also more sensitive about risks that are catastrophic, which kill people all at once in one place, than we are about risks that are chronic, where the victims are spread out over space and/or time. Plane crashes, therefore, get more media attention than, say, heart disease, which kills 2,200 people in the United States each day, just not all in one place at one moment. Then there's the factor the researchers call dread, which is basically a measure of suffering. The more awful/painful/nasty a way to die it is, the more afraid of it we are likely to be. What happens to people in a plane crash feels pretty high up on a list of awful/painful/nasty ways to go. It sounds a lot worse—and scarier—than dying of heart disease, for example, even though the likelihood of dying from heart disease is much higher (1 in 400 per year, for the average American.) The challenge, then, in making an informed decision about the risk of flying, or any risk, is to balance these three components—the numbers about that risk (especially those that are most relevant to you), all the other things we know and our life circumstances, and the affective feelings the risk triggers. That way the choices we make, to fly or drive for example, will include what is right for each of us but will also hopefully be more in line with the scientific facts, and that should help us live healthier and longer lives. NOVA: Deadliest Plane Crash

NOVA How Risky is Flying? http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/planecrash/risky.html How Risky Is Flying? by David Ropeik Trying to judge whether a particular risk is big or small is, well, a risky business. There's a lot more to it than you might think. Flying in airplanes is a case in point. You'd think that you could just find out the numbers—the odds—and that would be it. The annual risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11 million. On that basis, the risk looks pretty small. Compare that, for example, to the annual risk of being killed in a motor vehicle crash for the average American, which is about 1 in 5,000. But if you think about those numbers, problems crop up right away. First of all, you are not the average American. Nobody is. Some people fly more and some fly less and some don't fly at all. So if you take the total number of people killed in commercial plane crashes and divide that into the total population, the result, the risk for the average American, may be a good general guide to whether the risk is big or small, but it's not specific to your personal risk. Then there's another numbers problem: what denominator are you using? (For the math-challenged, like me, that's the number at the bottom of a fraction.) You can calculate the risk of flying by: Dividing the number of people who die into the total number of people, which gives you the risk for the average person; Dividing the number of victims into the number of total flights all passengers took, which gives the risk per flight; Or Dividing the number of victims into the total number of miles all of them flew, which gives you the risk per mile. They all produce accurate numbers, but which one is most relevant to you depends on your personal flying patterns. Some fliers take lots of short flights and some take longer ones, for example. Since the overwhelming majority of the few plane crashes that do occur take place in connection with takeoffs and landings, the risk is less a matter of how far you fly and more a matter of how often. If you're a frequent flier, then the risk per flight means more. For occasional long-distance fliers, the risk per mile means more. A frequent, long-distance flier would want to consider both. Here's another number problem with the risk of flying: do you calculate the risk on the basis of one year, or an average of five years, or 10, or 20? Most years no plane crashes occur, or at least very few. So the number of victims per year goes up radically in years when there are crashes. Just look at the spikes in the number of deaths from plane crashes by year in the graph at right. Risk perception is not just a matter of the facts. So to calculate the risk per year can be misleading. One really bad year would skew the numbers toward the more frightening. A year with no crashes makes it look like it's zero. But if you average things over, say, five years, or 10, some other factors muddy the waters. In the last five years safety factors have changed. Advanced weather radar has been installed near major airports, and new FAA rules have gone into effect. A 10-year average might be misleading too. It would include the aberration of September 11, 2001. Despite all these caveats, numbers are a great way to put risk in general perspective, and there is no question that by most metrics, flying is a less risky way to travel than most others. But wait: just when you thought it was safe to use numbers to put risk in perspective... Numbers are not the only way—not even the most important way—we judge what to be afraid of. Risk perception is not just a matter of the facts. It's also a matter of the other things we know (e.g., airline companies are in financial trouble) and our experiences (maybe you took a really scary, turbulent flight once) and our life circumstances (my wife was more afraid of flying when our kids were little). And on top of all that, several general characteristics make some risks feel scarier than others. Researchers in psychology like Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff have found that when we have control (like when we're driving) we're less afraid, and when we don't have control (like when we're flying) we're more afraid. That probably explains why, in the first few months after the 9/11 attacks, fewer people flew and more people chose to drive. Driving, with its sense of control, feels safer. Studies at Cornell and the University of Michigan estimate that between 700 and 1,000 more people died in motor vehicle crashes from October through December of 2001 than during the same three months the year before. Another "feelings factor" that informs our perception of risk is awareness. The more aware of a risk we are, the more concerned about it we are. Which explains why, when there is a plane crash in the news, flying seems scarier to many of us, even though that one crash hasn't changed the overall statistical risk much. People are also more sensitive about risks that are catastrophic, which kill people all at once in one place, than we are about risks that are chronic, where the victims are spread out over space and/or time. Plane crashes, therefore, get more media attention than, say, heart disease, which kills 2,200 people in the United States each day, just not all in one place at one moment. Then there's the factor the researchers call dread, which is basically a measure of suffering. The more awful/painful/nasty a way to die it is, the more afraid of it we are likely to be. What happens to people in a plane crash feels pretty high up on a list of awful/painful/nasty ways to go. It sounds a lot worse—and scarier—than dying of heart disease, for example, even though the likelihood of dying from heart disease is much higher (1 in 400 per year, for the average American.) The challenge, then, in making an informed decision about the risk of flying, or any risk, is to balance these three components—the numbers about that risk (especially those that are most relevant to you), all the other things we know and our life circumstances, and the affective feelings the risk triggers. That way the choices we make, to fly or drive for example, will include what is right for each of us but will also hopefully be more in line with the scientific facts, and that should help us live healthier and longer lives. NOVA: Deadliest Plane Crash

Types of Hazards Major Hazards cultural hazards chemical hazards physical hazards noise, fire, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, & ionizing radiation; biological hazards pathogens, pollen & other allergens, & animals such as bees & poisonous snakes unsafe working conditions, smoking, poor diet, drugs, drinking, driving, flying, criminal assault, poverty; harmful chemicals in air, water, soil, & food;

Causes of Death Annual Deaths 3 x 400 passenger jets crashing every day http://www.entheology.org/edoto/anmviewer.asp?a=3&z=10 Notes: diet (>300,000) is left out, accidents includes drug overdoses WHO estimates 80 x 106 deaths 1950-2000 3 x more than all wars of 20th century US deaths in 2003

+ many more

Movie The Realities of Risk (13 of 29 mins) View the following movie: http://vega.org.uk/video/programme/5 (part of the series http://www.open2.net/nextbigthing/ Questions: (i) What is risk bootstrapping? (ii) Why does the scientist think it was ‘daft’ to ban the pesticide ‘alar’?

Case Study: A Black Day in Bhopal, India The world’s worst industrial accident: 1984 pesticide plant, Bhopal India. An explosion at Union Carbide pesticide plant in an underground storage tank released a large quantity of highly toxic methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas. 15,000-22,000 people died Indian officials claim that simple upgrades could have prevented the tragedy.

Toxicology study of the adverse effects of chemicals on health toxicity: measure of how harmful a substance is; depends on: dose: amount of a potentially harmful substance ingested, inhaled, or absorbed through the skin; response: resulting type & amount of damage to health may be acute or chronic Also: frequency of exposure, age, effectiveness of detox systems, genetics

Toxicology

The dose makes the poison Any chemical be it natural or synthetic can be harmful http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/6263029.stm

Should we be concerned? …traces of synthetic chemicals in our environment Lack of data Effects difficult to determine Poor diet + pollution = brain damage Which is major factor? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/6263029.stm Life expectancy has increased Lower levels and new contaminants are being detected due to new technology

Misconception Misconception that all natural chemicals are safe and all sythentics are bad e.g. fruit seeds and pips form cyanide in the stomach, green potatoes, naturally occuring pesticides, mould/fungi on food http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/6263029.stm

Toxicology Toxicity of Chemicals Animal testing, case and epidemiological reports generally defined by LD50 – amount in a dose that kills 50 % of population in 14 days poison: legally defined as a chemical that has an LD50 of 50 milligrams or less per kilogram of body weight

Table 17–1

Toxicology Responses Acute toxicity: Sudden and severe exposure Rapid onset of symptoms Chronic toxicity: Continuous, long-term exposure Relatively low dose Cancer, birth defects, neurological damage Same chemical may show both effects e.g. skin irritation vs. cancer

Toxicology Dose-Response Acute toxicity tests design: Controls (no dose) & treatments (low to high dose) test organism (usually rats or mice) replicates (usually 60–200 animals total) period (often 14 days) High doses are used to reduce no. subjects and increase speed of test - Extrapolated down to low doses 2-5 years, $200,000-$2 million

Dose–Response Curves Any dosage is harmful (Assumed in most cases) Lower limit to harmful dose

Question If a dose of 0.1 μg is sufficient to kill a mouse, what mass would be fatal to you? What average level of substance would have to be present in drinking water for you to receive a fatal dose in one week? Ratio mass human : mouse = 200 : 1 Mass that would kill you = 200 x 0.1 μg = 20 μg 2 L water d-1 x 7 d w-1 = 14L For fatal dose 20 μg / 14 L = 1 μg L-1 = 1 ppb

Toxicology Complications Different physiology Synergestic effects – difficult and expensive to test for 1, no. tests multiply when consider more than 1 Because of complexity in determining toxicity allowed exposure levels are set 100-1000 x below harmful levels

Toxicology Estimating human exposure to chemicals and their effects is very difficult because of the many and often poorly understood variables involved.

Toxicology Children are more susceptible to the effects of toxic substances because: Children breathe more air, drink more water, and eat more food per unit of body weight than adults. They are exposed to toxins when they put their fingers or other objects in their mouths. Children usually have less well-developed immune systems and detoxification processes than adults

Toxicology The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed that regulators should assume children have 10 times the exposure risk of adults to cancer-causing chemicals Some health scientists contend that regulators should assume a risk 100 times that of adults

Background Birth defects due to exposure to synthetic chemicals Toxicity to mammals and birds Carcinogenic effects Xenoestrogenic effects Gt. Lakes cormorant with crossed bill http://www.lakemichigan.org/elimination/communitydecisionmodel.asp http://www.meepi.org/wnv/overkillma.htm

ES&T Article

Chemical Hazards Toxic chemicals (kill) Hazardous chemicals (harm)

Chemical Hazards Toxic Chemicals Temporary or Permanent harm or death: mutagens: cause random mutations (changes in the DNA) e.g. nitrous acid, UV, γ, α radiation teratogens: cause birth defects e.g., alcohol, PCBs, steroid hormones, heavy metals neurotoxins: damage nervous system e.g., DDT, alcohol, heavy metals carcinogens: cause cancer over 100 types e.g. benzene, dioxin, radionuclides, asbestos http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Agency_for_Research_on_Cancer

Hazardous Chemicals cause harm in various ways flammable or explosive (e.g., gasoline); irritating or damaging to skin or lungs (e.g., strong acids or alkalis) interfering with or preventing oxygen uptake & distribution (e.g., carbon monoxide, CO); inducing allergic reactions of the immune system (allergens)

Dioxin Incidents Times Beach, Missouri NYT 121682

Dioxin Incidents Times Beach, Missouri 1972-76 dirt roads were sprayed with waste oil containing super concentrated dioxin from Agent Orange manufacture 1992 - Town was demolished 1997 - 265,000 tons of soil was incinerated on site Now Route 66 State Park Modern Marvels 20 – Engineering Disasters Shown in History Channel Modern Marvels #20

Effects at Low Doses Long-term exposure to some chemicals at low doses may disrupt the body’s: Immune system: specialized cells and tissues that protect the body against disease and harmful substances. Nervous system: brain, spinal cord, and peripheral nerves. Endocrine system: complex network of glands that release minute amounts of hormones into the bloodstream.

Hormone Disrupters hormones: molecules that act as messengers to regulate various bodily processes, including reproduction, growth, & development (endocrine system) hormone disrupters: interfere with hormone function so far 51 chemicals shown to act as hormone disrupters on wildlife, laboratory animals, & humans e.g., dioxins, certain PCBs, various chemicals in plastics, some pesticides, lead & mercury 1997 study shows that sperm count of men in U.S. & Europe has declined 50%

Hormone Disrupters Molecules of certain synthetic chemicals have shapes similar to those of natural hormones and can adversely affect the endocrine system

Biomagnification A chemical whose concentration increases along a food chain is said to be biomagnified DDT concentration in Lake Ontario Trout Biomagnification results from a sequence of bioaccumulation steps

Biomagnification when a chemical becomes concentrated in specific organs or tissues e.g., DDT, dioxin, PCBs accumulates in fatty tissues Known as persistent organic pollution (POP) contributing factors: organic chemical (like dissolves like) high persistence not easily broken down or excreted

Health Effects Effects in Utero Exposure to low levels results in impaired intellectual development NYT, September 12th 1998

Health Effects Dioxins, Furans and PCBs in Food 95% of human exposure to dioxins and furans is from the presence of these compounds from food Fresh water fish has the highest level of PCBs Schecter et al., 1997 NYT July 2nd 2003

Why do we know so little? Under existing laws, most chemicals are considered innocent until proven guilty, and estimating their toxicity is difficult, uncertain, and expensive. Federal and state governments do not regulate about 99.5% of the commercially used chemicals in the U.S. Only 10% of 80,000 chemicals have been tested for toxicity Chemicals are considered innnocent until proven guilty

Pollution Prevention “better safe than sorry” Some scientists and health officials say that preliminary but not conclusive evidence that a chemical causes significant harm should spur preventive action (precautionary principle) Manufacturers contend that wide-spread application of the precautionary principle would make it too expensive to introduce new chemicals and technologies

Pollution and Cancer Bruce Ames believes that the focus on man-made chemicals as causes of cancer is a distraction from the real threats of smoking and diet Media: http://www.bruceames.org/bnamedia.html

Environmental Testing Experiments with test animals are used to determine how carcinogenic a compound is, take many years The simple Ames test can be used fairly rapidly to distinguish compounds likely to be human carcinogens http://plantpath.wisc.edu/~PP123/virtual_ames/experiment/spudswin.html

Biological Hazards nontransmissible diseases cardiovascular disorders, cancers, emphysema, & malnutrition; transmissible (infectious) diseases caused by bacteria, viruses, protozoa, or parasites colds, flus, hepatitis, sexually transmitted diseases, malaria many transmissible diseases spreading over broad geographic areas Lyme disease (bacteria) Giardia (protozoa)

Biological Hazards Infectious disease pathways

Transmissible Diseases WHO estimates that each year the world’s seven deadliest infections kill 13.6 million people – most of them the poor in developing countries

Case Study: Growing Germ Resistance to Antibiotics Rabidly producing infectious bacteria ‘superbugs’ (e.g. MRSA) are becoming genetically resistant to widely used antibiotics due to: Genetic resistance: Antibiotic resistance is a consequence of evolution via natural selection Overuse of antibiotics: (i) A 2000 study found that half of the antibiotics used to treat humans were prescribed unnecessarily (ii) over 70% of all antibiotics used in US given to animals in the absence of disease

Case Study: The Growing Global Threat from Tuberculosis The highly infectious tuberculosis (TB) kills 1.7 million people per year and could kill 25 million people 2020. Recent increases in TB are due to: Lack of TB screening and control programs especially in developing countries due to expenses Genetic resistance to the most effective antibiotics

Viral Diseases Flu, HIV, and hepatitis B viruses infect and kill many more people each year then highly publicized West Nile and SARS viruses The influenza virus is the biggest killer virus worldwide Pigs, chickens, ducks, and geese are the major reservoirs of flu. As they move from one species to another, they can mutate and exchange genetic material with other viruses HIV is the second biggest killer virus worldwide. Five major priorities to slow the spread of the disease are: Quickly reduce the number of new infections to prevent further spread Concentrate on groups in a society that are likely to spread the disease Provide free HIV testing and pressure people to get tested. Implement educational programs Provide free or low-cost drugs to slow disease progress

Case Study: Malaria – Death by Mosquito Malaria kills about 2 million people per year and has probably killed more than all of the wars ever fought

Case Study: Malaria – Death by Mosquito Spraying insides of homes with low concentrations of the pesticide DDT greatly reduces the number of malaria cases. Under international treaty enacted in 2002, DDT is being phased out in developing countries http://www.doc3d.com/malaria/malaria_WMV.html http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/biology/units/infect/images.html

Bioterrorism Possible targets: air, water, and food Inexpensive Fairly easy to produce biological agents Recombinant DNA techniques

Risk Analysis Scientists have developed ways to evaluate and compare risks, decide how much risk is acceptable, and find affordable ways to reduce it.

Risk Assessment To perform risk assessment it is important to know: Hazard evaluation information (acute, cancer ???) Quantitative dose-response information An estimate of the potential human exposure to the chemical The highest dose at which no observable effects level is called NOEL (expressed in terms of mg kg-1 body weight day-1) To determine the threshold level for the most sensitive members of the human population, EPA uses Toxicity reference dose or RfD. (RfD is also referred as Acceptable Daily Intake or ADI) RfD (or ADI) = NOEL/100 (divide by safety factor of 100) If NOEL for a chemical is 0.01 mg/kg/day, the ADI or RfD for a 80 kg man would be (0.01 mg/kg/day /100) x 80 kg = 0.008 mg

Estimating risks from using many technologies is difficult due to unpredictability of human behavior, chance, and sabotage. Reliability of a system is multiplicative: If a nuclear power plant is 95% reliable and human reliability is 75%, then the overall reliability is (0.95 X 0.75 = 0.71) 71%.

RISK ANALYSIS Annual deaths in the U.S. from tobacco use and other causes in 2003

RISK ANALYSIS Number of deaths per year in the world from various causes. Parentheses show deaths in terms of the number of fully loaded 400-passenger jumbo jets crashing every day of the year with no survivors.

Perceiving Risk Most individuals evaluate the relative risk they face based on: Degree of control Fear of unknown Whether we voluntarily take the risk Whether risk is catastrophic Unfair distribution of risk Sometimes misleading information, denial, and irrational fears can cloud judgment

RISK ANALYSIS Comparisons of risks people face expressed in terms of shorter average life span.

Becoming Better at Risk Analysis We can carefully evaluate or tune out of the barrage of bad news covered in the media, compare risks, and concentrate on reducing personal risks over which we have some control