Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) Robert Watson ICSU Forum on Science and Technology for Sustainable Development World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg August 30, 2002

2 AIACC Implementing, Executing & Collaborating Agencies –UN Environment Programme (UNEP) –Global SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) –Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Funding Agencies –Global Environment Facility (GEF) –Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) –US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)

3 AIACC Objectives l Advance scientific understanding l Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions. l Publications in peer reviewed journals. l Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in developing countries l To investigate climate change I, A & V and l To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC) l Generate and communicate information useful for adaptation planning & action l Including for preparation of National Communications under UNFCCC.

4 AIACC Grants for Regional Studies of Climate Change I, A & V Call for pre-proposals issued early 2001 –150+ preproposals submitted. –60 invited to submit full proposals. Proposals peer reviewed by 80 scientists 24 awards made –11 in Africa (17 countries participating) –5 in Asia (9 countries) –5 in Latin America (10 countries) –3 in Small Island Dev. States (8 countries)

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6 AIACC Support for Grant Recipients 3-year research funding (100K-225K USD) Participation in capacity building activities –Training/project development workshops held in –Regional workshops (2003 and 2004) Technical assistance from AIACC mentors –Including facilitation of peer-reviewed publication. Participation in AIACC Scientific Network –Cross-project (South-South) collaborations & assistance –Collaborations with developed country researchers

7 Projects emphasize links between current & future vulnerabilities & adaptive strategies Most AIACC projects will begin with assessment of current vulnerabilities in areas such as –Food security –Water security –Livelihood security –Human health Will explore how climate change in combination with other factors may alter vulnerabilities through coming decades. Will evaluate adaptive strategies, emphasizing those that might lessen current vulnerabilities as well as longer term vulnerabilities to climate change.

8 Drought & vulnerability of rural households in W. African Sahel University of Jos, Nigeria and Institut D’Economie Rural, Mali Past/present vulnerabilities of household food & livelihood security from drought to be evaluated using survey techniques and observational data Develop and apply models of future vulnerabilities and adaptive responses under scenarios of climate change. Attempt to identify thresholds for coping with climatic extremes and evaluate risks of exceeding in future climate

9 Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Limpopo basin, Botswana University of Botswana Establish past and present responses of food and water sectors to climate variability. Investigate potential impacts of climate change on food production, water supply and water demand. Economic valuation of impacts and examination of vulnerabilities (e.g. food security) of impacted groups. Evaluate feasibility, effectiveness and costs of adaptation options to lessen vulnerabilities.

10 Integrated assessment of climate change impacts in Miombo region Miombo Network (researchers & institutions in Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, & Zambia) Case studies of recent droughts and floods in Zambezi River Basin. Develop and apply models of climate-environment- human interactions to investigate impacts of climate change (emphasis on flood, drought) on land-use, production, food security, & livelihoods. Evaluate adaptation options for the river basin.

11 Sustainable livelihood strategies in Sudan: lessons for climate change adaptation Higher Council for Environment & Natural Resources, Sudan Case studies of degree to which existing sustainable livelihood programs have increased resilience (including food security) of local agricultural systems to climate related stressors. Evaluate potential for these strategies to increase resilience (and food security) to future climate change.

12 Food production & water needs in North Africa Agricultural Research Center (Egypt), Ministere de l’Agricultare (Tunisia), Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco) Case studies of effects of climate variability on production of cereals, olives, other crops in 3 different arid/semi-arid cropping systems. Simulation of crop production and water demands for scenarios of climate change; evaluation of food security implications. Evaluation of adaptation options for different cropping systems.

13 For more information on AIACC Visit AICC website – Or contact: –Neil Leary, START Secretariat – –Tel: