World Climate: Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement using the C-ROADS Climate Policy Simulation

Agenda 1. Introduction and schedule 2. Roles 3. The World Climate Negotiation 4. Debrief and your feedback

Purpose of C-ROADS ( Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support) To improve understanding of important climate dynamics among Policymakers & negotiators Businesses, Educators, Civil Society Media The public to help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science.

Negotiation Parties Developed Nations Led by US, EU, Japan, but also Russia/FSUs/ Eastern Europe, South Korea, Australia/NZ, Canada Developing A Led by China, India, Brazil, but also South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Phillipines, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore Developing B Small Island Nations and “LDCs”, representing Other Small Asia, Central/South America, Middle East, Bangladesh

Negotiating Parties United States European Union Other Developed Nations Australia/NZ, Canada, Other Europe, Japan, Russia & Former Soviet Republics, South Korea, United Kingdom China India Other Developing Nations Led by Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, and Pakistan, with other nations of Africa, Central and South America, southeast Asia, the Middle East, island states of the Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean

Process Introduce yourselves to members of your delegation Read Briefing Memo for your nation or bloc Begin to formulate your negotiating strategy What are your vital interests? What is politically feasible in your nation/bloc? What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them?

Welcome Delegates UN Climate Summit

Emissions exceed IPCC Worst-case Scenario: CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (GtC/year) Actual CO 2 Emissions vs. IPCC Assumptions US Global Change Research Program: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdfdownloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf data: Manning et al. (2010), Nature Geoscience. Vol. 3; June, : IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Worst Case (A1FI) Actual Emissions 2010: 9.14 GtC

Atmospheric CO 2, Mauna Loa Observatory 2011: 392 ppm 40% above pre-industrial

0 °C1.0 °C2.0 °C3.0 °C4.0 °C5.0 °C 1.8 °F3.6 °F5.4 °F7.2 °F9.0 °F 0 °F IPCC AR4

1.8 °F3.6 °F5.4 °F7.2 °F9.0 °F 0 °F 0 °C1.0 °C2.0 °C3.0 °C4.0 °C5.0 °C 3.5 °C 6.3 ° F 5.3 °C 9.5 °F 7.4 °C 13.3 °F MIT Joint Program on Global Change (Sokolov et al. 2009, Journal of Climate) Projected mean temp increase by 2100 under BAU 10.8 °F 6.0 °C

Our Global Task Manage the Unavoidable and Avoid the Unmanageable

Your Goals Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize GHG levels by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation fund to aid less developed nations.

Historic Emissions 14

Cumulative CO 2 Emissions (GtCO 2 /yr)

Task 1: Emissions Each delegation will set its own fossil fuel emissions targets. You will set: – In what year will GHG emissions in your bloc stop growing (if any)? – In what year (if desired), will your GHG emissions begin to fall? – If emissions will fall, at what rate (% per year)? REDD policies: Deforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 1 continues BAU deforestation path, 0 gradually eliminates deforestation over coming decades. Afforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 0 = no new area set aside for afforestation; 1 = maximum feasible afforestation area.

Task 2: Burden Sharing We are creating the “UN Global Fund for Mitigation and Adaptation” for Disaster relief Food and water Immigration and refugees Mitigation — Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals Total cost is $100 Billion per year (ramping up to that level by 2020) How much will you contribute? How much should others contribute? Terms?

Proposal Form Region: ____________ CO 2 Emissions growth stop year: _______ CO 2 Emissions decline start year: _______ Fractional rate of decline (%/year): ______ REDD+ (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation and land Degradation)_______ India, Other Developed, Other Developing only: (1 = no reduction from BAU; 0 = max reduction) Afforestation (net new forest area) _______ All nations/regions: (0 = no new afforestation area; 1 = maximum feasible) Your region’s contribution to fund for mitigation and adaptation ($B/year): _______

After you prepare your proposal 2 minute plenary presentation by representative of each delegation describing their emissions proposal, their Fund commitment and why. Designate a representative to give your Bloc’s speech.

Temp Sea level rise, ocean pH Specific country emissions Carbon cycle Total fossil fuel CO 2 emissions (Global, 3, 6 or 15 blocs) Net CO 2 emissions from forests Deforestation Afforestation Forests GHGs in atm Climate Other GHGs C-ROADS Model Structure User Input

24 (10 layers) Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Two biosphere compartments Ocean: Mixed layer 10 deep ocean layers Explicit stock/flow structure for other GHGs CH 4 N 2 O HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, etc. Aerosols & Black Carbon

25 (10 layers) Radiative Balance Other Forcings CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O Other GHGs Aerosols Black carbon Heat transfer to surface, deep ocean

C-ROADS Produces CO 2 Concentration Results Consistent with Historical Records 26

C-ROADS Produces Methane Concentration Results Consistent with History and IPCC Forecasts 27

C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios

C-ROADS Produces Sea Level Rise Results Consistent with Historical Records 29

C -ROADS Scientific Review Panel Dr. Robert Watson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC Mr. Eric Beinhocker McKinsey Global Institute Dr. Klaus HasselmannMax-Planck Institut für Meteorologie Dr. David Lane London School of Economics Dr. Jørgen Randers Norwegian School of Management (BI) Dr. Stephen Schneider Stanford University Dr. Bert de Vries Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM

Conclusion of Scientific Review Panel The C-ROADS model “reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three dimensional climate models very well” “Given the model’s capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among a broad range of users and recommend that it be considered as an official United Nations tool.” Full report:

Proposal Summary Emissions Growth Stop Year Emissions Reduction Start Year Annual Emissions Reduction (%/year) REDD (1 = BAU; 0 = zero emissions) New Afforestation Area (0-1 [max feasible]) Contribution to (or Draw on) Fund ($ Billion/yr) United States NA European Union NA Other Developed China NA India Other Developing Example %/year0.80.1$10 B/yr

Debrief Round 1

Source: Dr. Asgeir Sorteberg, Bjeknes Centre for Climate Research, Svalbard, Norway Arctic Sea Ice Loss Compared to IPCC Models Arctic ice extent to Sept compared to IPCC models using the SRES A2 CO 2 scenario (high CO 2 scenario).

Indus River Delta, Border of India and Pakistan

+ 1 Meter Sea Level Rise

+ 2 Meters Sea Level Rise

Policymaker Mental Models “Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties.” – Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica, Sept 2008 (Named to lead UNFCCC, May 2010)

Head of State Meeting, Copenhagen, Dec 2009 “Let us suppose 100 percent reduction, that is, no CO 2 in the developed countries anymore. Even then, with the [target of] two degrees, you have to reduce carbon emissions in the developing countries. That is the truth.” — Chancellor Angela Merkel. “Thank you for all these suggestions. We have said very clearly that we must not accept the 50 percent reductions. We cannot accept it.” — He Yafei “People tend to forget where it is from. In the past 200 years of industrialization developed countries contributed more than 80 percent of emissions. Whoever created this problem is responsible for the catastrophe we are facing.” — Chinese deputy foreign minister He Yafei “I say this with all due respect and in all friendship….With all due respect to China…[The developed countries have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent.] And in return, China, which will soon be the biggest economic power in the world, says to the world: ‘Commitments apply to you, but not to us.’ This is utterly unacceptable! This is about the essentials, and one has to react to this hypocrisy!” —President Nikolas Sarkozy “If there is no sense of mutuality in this process, it is going to be difficult for us to ever move forward in a significant way.” —President Barack Obama

Round 2 Debrief Round 2 Round 3 Overall Debrief

Thank you For more information: climateinteractive.org

Backup

C-ROADS Development Team ( Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support) – Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems – Dr. Travis Franck, Climate Interactive/MIT Sloan School – Andrew Jones, Climate Interactive – Dr. Phil Rice, Climate Interactive – Dr. Beth Sawin, Climate Interactive – Dr. Lori Siegel, Climate Interactive – Dr. John Sterman, MIT System Dynamics Group

Impact of 1 Meter SLR

Impact of 1 Meter Sea Level Rise