1 Detecting Tsunami Power / Scale Directly from Coastal GPS Stations for Early Warnings Collaborators: Bar-Server, Ichiro Fukumori, L.-L. Fu (JPL) C. K. Shum, Chan Yi (Ohio State Univ.) Geoff Blewitt (Nevada) Y. Tony Song Jet Propulsion Laboratory

2 Who parted the Red Sea? Tsunamis (Walter Munk 2000). Historical Tsunamis The first recorded, the Aegean Sea tsunami in 426 B.C. by Greek historian Thucydides (460 – 400 B.C.), who linked it to an earthquake. Tony Song, Jan 2012

3 DateLocationMagnitudeEarly Warning?Fatality 26 Dec 2004Sumatra9.2No warningTsunami death~230, Mar July 2005 Nias Island North California Panic evacuation False alarm Evacuation killed ~100 No tsunami 27 Jan May July Nov 2006 Benda Sea Tonga South Java Kuril Islands No warning Panic warning No warning False alarm/alert No tsunami Tsunami death~730 Small tsunami 13 Jan Apr Aug Sep 2007 Kuril Islands Solomon Island Central Peru South Sumatra False alarm/alert Alert No tsunami Tsunami death~54 No tsunami … 27 Feb Oct 2010 Chile Sumatra 8,8 7.7 Basin-wide Warning No warning Casualty? (relative small) Tsunami death~ Mar 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan 9.0Basin-wide WarningTsunami death ~19,000 Recent Tsunamis Tsunami occurs quite often—the most devastating disaster Tony Song, Jan 2012

4 Tsunami Characteristics Tsunami speed: 800 km/hour (jet plane speed) Wave length: ~ 200 km Wave height: 20 cm ~ 10 m+ Reaches shore: 20~30 minutes after an earthquake Tony Song, Jan 2012

5 Tsunami is predictable because its pre-cursor (earthquake) can be detected earlier. Potential Tsunamis Tony Song, Jan 2012

6 Zhang Heng ( 張衡, 78 – 139 A.D.) was an astronomer, mathematician, and poet of the Eastern Han Dynasty in ancient China. He invented the first seismograph in 132 A.D astronomermathematician Eastern Han DynastyChina “Refusing to accept superstitious explanation of the earthquakes, Zhang made heroic observations of earthquakes and invented the ‘Didong Yi’ to detect earthquake from distance” Earthquake Detection Horizontal pendulum seismograph invented by English seismologist John Milne in1880. Caltech Prof. Charles Richter invented the Richter’s scale of earthquake in 1935.

7 Earthquake-Magnitude-Based Tsunami Warnings (NOAA’s PTWC) Unfortunately, 1.earthquake magnitude is not a good indicator of a resulting tsunami; 2.DART system was not designed for early warnings. Current Tsunami Warning System Tony Song, Jan 2012

8 Example 1: The 2004 Sumatra M9.2 earthquake and Tsunami Has the earthquake-magnitude- based approach worked ? Let’s see the fact Fact: About 230,000 people died due to the tsunami. Initial estimate of the EQ M8.2 was incorrect (too small). No tsunami warning was issued. Tony Song, Jan 2012 December 2004

9 Example 2: The 2010 Chilean M8.8 Eq and Tsunami February 2010 CNN reporting, 27 Feb, 2010 Fact Initial estimate of the EQ M8.8 was correct. A basin-wide tsunami warning was issued, and some costal communities in Hawaii and Japan were evacuated. However, no damaging tsunamis observed in those far-field regions. Tony Song, Jan 2012

10 Example 3: The 2011 Japan M9.0 Eq and Tsunami March 2011 Fact: Initial estimate of the EQ M8.0 was incorrect. Tsunami warning was issued. Still, about 20,000 people died due to the tsunami. “Had the magnitude been correctly estimated initially, more lives could have been saved “ [Ando et al. 2011]. Summary: Earthquake magnitude is not a good indicator of a resulting tsunami. Tony Song, Jan 2012

11 A New Tsunami Theory Energy approach—Potential energy and Kinetic energy Lateral motions of continental slopes transfer the major tsunami energy Song et al., The role of the horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 tsunami, Ocean Modell. [2008]. Tony Song, April 2010 Courtesy Chen Ji

12 Grace Seafloor uplift TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Surface Height Launched 2002 Evidence from satellites Vertical uplift was not the only cause of the 2004 tsunami (Song & Han 2011) Tony Song, April 2010 Song, Y.T. and S.-C. Han (2011)

13 Song, Y.T., Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations, GRL, 34, (2007). A New Tsunami Detection Approach Song, Y.T., Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations, GRL, 34, (2007). Tony Song, April 2010

14 A Pilot NASA Project GPS-aided Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert System Team Leader: Yoaz Bar-Sever (JPL) JPL/ NASA Richard Gross, Tony Song, Frank Webb Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre / NOAA Vindell Hsu USGS Kenneth Hudnut University of Nevada Reno Geoff Blewitt, Hans-Peter Plag California Institute of Technology Mark Simons Tony Song, April 2010

15 Real-Time Test 1: Chile M8.8 Earthquake Demonstrates GPS method (a): NASA's Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) measures the Chile M8.8 earthquake displacement in real time at Santiago. (b): JPL team predicts a moderate sized tsunami using the real-time GPS and the Song tsunami generation model. (c): NASA/CNES satellites Jason-1 and Jason-2 confirm the tsunami amplitude of the GPS-based model prediction. Next steps: Strengthen real time GDGPS network, automate models. Tony Song, Yoaz Bar-Sever, et al /JPL Tony Song, April 2010

16 Tony Song, April 2011 ARIA/JPL Test 2 (after event): 2011 Tohoku-Oki M9.0 Earthquake & Tsunami GPS-based Tsunami Prediction System Song, et al., GRL, 2012

17 Matching Models With Satellite Data Tony Song, Dec 2011 Model simulation of the March 11, 2011 tsunami, generated from 1,200 GPS offset data and synchronized with actual satellite tracks (Jason-1 and Jason-2).

18 Matching Models With Satellite Data Tony Song, Dec 2011 NASA’s Jason-1 satellite was at the right place at the right time and observed the merged waves Track1 observed tsunami height ~30 cm Track2 observed tsunami height ~70 cm Track3 observed tsunami height ~30 cm Data Model

19 Detect Tsunami Scales Earthquake MagnitudeTsunami Energy (E T ) Tsunami Scale (S T ) Basin-wide Warning? GPSSeismicGPSSeismicS T = 5 threshold 2004 Sumatra (M w 9.2)6.0e+15 J5.2e+15 J5.85.7>> 5 Yes 1964 Alaska (M w 9.2)8.2e+15 J5.9>> 5 Yes 2005 Nias Island (M w 8.7)2.8e+14 J2.2e+14 J4.44.3<< Samoa (Mw 8.0)3.5e+14 J4.5<< Chile (Mw 8.8)6.5e+14 J4.8<< Tohoku-Oki (Mw9.0)3.0e+15J5.5>> 5 yes Tony Song, June 2011 Procedure: Collect GPS displacement in real time Model the seafloor motions Estimate Tsunami Energy/Tsunami Scale (Song 2007):

20 Summary GPS Detection of Tsunami Scales for Early Warnings 1.We have developed an innovative approach to detect the triggers of tsunamis and tsunami scales using real-time GPS network. 2.Based on the new approach, we have successfully tested some GPS stations on the 2010 Chilean tsunami and 2011 Japanese tsunami. Tony Song, Jan 2012

21 The Good News GPS detection tsunamis was ranked as Top 100 Science Stories of 2010 Katerva identifies the best ideas on the planet and accelerates them toward impact at the global level. Tsunami Detection, nominated, entered finalist, then runner up for the 2011 Katerva Award in Human Development category Tony Song, Jan 2012

22 Need NASA, NOAA, USGS, academic, and Industry collaborations to develop a universal data system ( working with Chile, China, Japan, GDGPS). Need an automation system to response earthquakes and tsunamis (developing at JPL). Need more research on tsunami genesis. Tony Song, Jan 2012 The Bad News Many challenges ahead

23 Two Implications Tony Song, Dec 2011 Near-field forecast: Coastal GPS is a solution. Near-field forecast: Coastal GPS is a solution. For example, the initial seismic estimate of the March 11, 2011 earthquake was significantly smaller. Had the magnitude been correctly estimated initially, more lives could have been saved [Ando et al. 2011]. Far-field Forecast: No large-scale panic is necessary, but need to identify those regions in the direction of the merging tsunamis (which are predictable).

24 Project 2, NASA Decision $1.1M: GPS- aided Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert System JPL (Bar-Sever, Gross, Song, Webb) USGU (Hudnut) NOAA’s PTWC (Hsu) Caltech (Simons) UNR (Blewitt, Plag) Tony Song, May 2008 Existing GDGPS (JPL/NASA) Add into GDGPS Project 1, JPL R&TD $150K: Demonstrating a Coastal GPS Network for Directly Detecting Tsunami Genesis and Scales On Going Tsunami Research (Needs multi-disciplinary effort: Seismology, Oceanography, GPS technology, and Computing) Project 3, NASA Disasters Program $150K: GPS-aided and DART-ensured tsunami detection system.

25 A Global GPS Network GPS-Aided Tsunami Early Detection (GATED) System Tony Song, Dec 2011