Segregation and integration in the UK Ludi Simpson Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester Politics and demography ASEN conference, LSE September

Claims and evidence “Whites will soon become a minority in Birmingham and other major British cities, posing a critical challenge to social stability, Britain’s race relations watchdog has warned. “The warning comes as government statistics show that white and ethnic minority communities are becoming increasingly segregated by growing population movement and immigration. “Phillips will highlight the issue this week at a conference in Leicester, which the CRE predicts will become a plural city by 2011, with the others [Birmingham, Oldham and Bradford] crossing the threshold by 2016.” Sunday Times, March 19 th 2006, David Leppard N o t t r u e!

Population dynamics, England Growth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations is more through natural growth (reproduction) than immigration, Black: natural change (excess of births over deaths). Grey: Net migration. Source: Williamson (2003)

Natural change Total personsWhiteBlackIndianPak’niB’shiOther Asian settlement Asian growth Small Asian growth Other areas Net migration Total personsWhiteBlackIndian Pak’niB’shi Other Asian settlement Asian growth Small Asian growth Other areas Oldham and Rochdale, Migration

Mixing, growth and migration More mixed wards? (10% each White and Others) Natural growth or immigration? (Non-White in one year) Coloured flight? (Net migration in UK from the least White ward in one year) BirthsImmigWhiteOther Birmingham18271, out1,320 out Coventry out346 out Dudley out40 out Sandwell out84 out Stoke-on-Trent UA in7 out Telford & Wrekin UA in11 out Walsall out114 out Wolverhampton in139 out East Staffs out8 out

papers-> “Ghettos of the mind…” Indices of segregation Table 2. Indices of segregation and diversity, for wards of England and Wales Index of dissimilarity (evenness) Index of isolation (exposure) White Caribbean African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese N of polarised enclaves88

Indices of movement and diversity Movement Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from Non-White areas)White2.0 All others1.4 Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from White areas)White-0.1 All others-1.1 Diversity % Mixed areas (with 10% each of White and other)912 Standardised Reciprocal Diversity Index

Those who move out of inner areas are better off than those who stay, but big inequalities remain

Other research Greater London Authority Nov 05 –Simpson’s Diversity Index: greater diversity over time –Polarised enclaves: fewer in 2001 than 1991 –Ghettos: none Poulsen (Johnston and Forrest) Sept 05 –Index of isolation: increased –Ghettos: none Phillips, survey-based Society and Space 05 –Dispersal in fact and in aspirations of young Asian families Dorling and Rees 2002, and many others –Social geography becoming more polarised Rees, 2005 for Joseph Rowntree Foundation

What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it? More Black and Asian areas, with probably higher proportions of Black and Asian residents –Indices of ‘isolation’ will go up for Asian populations –Not policy sensitive: we don’t ask people not to have children More dispersal to other areas: diversity and mixing; a residential mosaic –Increase labour market equality and economic prosperity –Remove barriers in the housing market –The safety and comfort of potential new areas outside settlement areas

What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it? Fear –at top and bottom Community cohesion / CRE policies for equality, interaction and participation View clusters as a means to integration, not its antithesis Reduce inflammatory views of Black areas New thinking on the meaning of integration and segregation