Just Growth: Inclusion and Prosperity in America’s Metropolitan Regions By Chris Benner, Associate Professor UC Davis July 26, 2012 Thanks to: Ford Foundation, Manuel Pastor and entire PERE/USC staff, Rosa Ramirez and Mateusz Filipski

Outline Background: links between social equity and economic growth in regions Conclusions: Implications for planning Just Growth project: studying why and how equity is linked with growth at regional scale

Equity and efficiency trade-offs? Conventional wisdom in economics  Need for large-scale investment  Shift from low to high productivity  Incentives and motivation New equity and growth synergies?  Keynesian economics  Countries in the Global south  Regions in the U.S.

Equity Matters at Regional Scale City-Suburb income gaps associated with stagnation in regional income and jobs (Savitch et al. 1993) Per capita income growth faster where poverty gaps and segregation lower (Pastor et al. 2000) Income inequality associated with lower savings rates (linked with financial and social distress, including bankruptcies, high commute times, divorce) (Frank et al. 2010) Racial inclusion and equality strongest predictor of four different measures of regional growth (Austrian et al. 2007) Relationship between equity and growth is stronger in ‘weak-market’ regions than fast growth regions (Pastor and Benner 2008)

Fund for our Economic Future Source: Fund for our Economic Future, North East Ohio Metro areas, 4 growth measures, 9 broad indicators with 38 different variables

Just Growth key questions Why is equity linked with growth? How are ‘just growth’ regions able to link growth with equity? Steps in the analysis  Identify just growth regions  Quantitative analysis of factors predicting just growth  In-depth case studies

Identifying just growth regions… Quadrant analysis: total of 72 national, and 72 in each of four census divisions, with little consistency

Identifying Just Growth regions Key measures:  Growth: change in earnings and employment  Equity: change in percent below poverty and 80/20 household income ratio  Total of 12 different matrices (80s, 90s, and full 20-years) Typology of regions—6 categories:  Consistently good and bad (both 80s and 90s)  20-year good and bad (over full 20-year period)  Turnaround and reverse (opposite patterns for 80s & 90s) Created growth and equity indices  2 indicators, 3 time periods, standardized by census region Divided each index into terciles

Index of growth and equity

Testing for characteristics associated with Just Growth Multiple variables:  Employment/industrial composition (9)  Geographic and distributional dimensions (8)  Workforce demographics and housing (7)  Interest in regional growth and/or justice (2) Multiple models  Simple correlations  Multivariate regressions  Logit models

Just Growth Factors…1 Diversified economy  State capital Nashville, Columbus, Denver, Sacramento  Public sector employment Jacksonville, Sacramento  Construction Denver—link with public investment  Manufacturing negatively correlated Regional government/governance  Jacksonville, Nashville City/County Mergers  Kansas City MARC

Just Growth Factors…2 Small portions of poorly educated population  Better predictor of just growth than high portions of highly educated population Minority Middle Class  Nashville

Building diverse epistemic communities Like-minded networks of professionals whose authoritative claim to consensual knowledge provides them with unique source of power in decision-making processes. Processes of interaction (interpretation, knowledge generation, action) often institutionalized when there’s a need for repeated interactions over extended periods of time In short: What you know and who you know it with Exemplary diverse examples  Jurisdictional ties  Leadership Nashville  Jacksonville Community Council Inc.

Founded in 1976, mostly volunteer, 1 staff Annual cohort chosen from applicants and nominations to represent full diversity of the region  $200 to participate, and scholarships available Monthly day-long discussions focused on issues in Nashville  Government & Media  Education  Business & Labor  Diversity  Quality of Life  Criminal Justice  Arts & entertainment More than 200 alumni involved in hosting, planning, sponsoring, participating in events No positions! Safe, sustained, deliberative dialogue

Founded in 1975 Multi-faceted community/participatory “think- tank”  One of the earliest annual indicator projects Annual studies on particular topics  Volunteer citizen task force, facilitated by staff  Broad consultative process  Consensus based recommendations for action Broadly shared priorities and sense of common destiny

Conclusions Steady, ‘unspectacular’, collaborative regions producing long-term success No silver bullet, but also diversity of opportunities—key is ties that help shape common destiny Clear correlations between equity and growth within regions

Thank you!