20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking Overview TNT 2008 Sources from The Open University acknowledged

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd My Background Fellow of Mech. Engg. & Management 40 years applying systems to business 13 years as independent consultant 25 years tutoring OU systems courses External examiner to Arab OU Lecturer on analytical techniques for MBA Course can be tailored in time & content

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking - Background Formalised in ’60s by Peter Checkland Need grew as society became increasingly “interconnected” Opposite to “reductionism”, breaking things down into components, as most Work Study Decreases the detail by “going up” to see the whole picture

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking - Utility Holistic view of human systems Systems that have a purpose Are complex and interconnected Results - intended, unintended & emergent properties –Try for them not to be a surprise

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking - Principles Looks from a higher level to sense the issues Uses many techniques to understand a problem Adopts analytical management techniques to decide what to do Embraces advanced management techniques for action and implementation

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking – A Toolbox So the method helps progressively –To sense the context of the problem –To understand the issues –To decide upon options to solve –To act to an agreed plan Systems Thinking has its own language Integrates with advanced management concepts

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd The objective of the course hammer hammerer hammered

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Course Aims Encourage an interest in systems thinking Develop an awareness of systems –Their properties –Their interconnectedness Enable student to start to think systemically –Or at least differently, openly Create confidence to test on real problems

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Learning Outcomes Understand where systems thinking is different Understand the meaning of systems terms Be alert to the perspectives of others Create 6 types of graphic analysis tool Understand how systems thinking can be useful Create confidence in using some aspects Provide links to other management concepts

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Course Modules Module 1 – Intros, Overview, ice breaker Module 2 – Stakeholder analysis Module 3 – Sensing & diagrams Module 4 – Systems maps Module 5 – Understanding & diagrams Module 6 – Modelling, Indicators & Deciding Module 7 – Acting & key management insights Module 8 – Reporting, wrap up, feedback

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Own Language - Key Concepts WorldviewPerspectivesStakeholders MessesDifficultiesTrap Holistic Systemic Reductionist Systematic System Purpose BoundaryEnvironment Complexity Inter- connected System of Interest Hierarchy Level Sub-system InformationEmergence Unintended Consequences ModellingIndicatorsControlFeedback

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd System Connected components which do something –Systems must have an intended Purpose –May have emergent properties – not designed, but desirable –Or unintended consequences – not designed, but undesirable They have a hierarchy –Levels –Sub-systems –Environment

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Setting a Boundary (Purpose) Deciding a Boundary is key Defines or isolates what is practical to consider Determines focus of study Determines the Environment, So Limits and Defines the Study – inputs to the Terms of Reference

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Holistic Systematic or Reductionist –Perfect for many problems –Step after step towards the solution –The “traditional” approach of engineers Systems Thinking is about analysing complex problems in a holistic manner –Systemic, the total system –Look at all the issues and their implications –There will be many Inter-connections & Complexity

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Stakeholders & Perspectives We recognise that we are not all the same We attempt to maximise the consensus Care can usually create an optimum solution Stakeholders, no definition needed here –Analysis can often be quite simple yet powerful as a 2x2 matrix

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Risk to Reputation Ease of sale P MD H PH S F C KEY S = Security F = Food MD = Medical devices P = Pharma C = Cosmetics H = Hospitals PH = HPA W = Water W Boston Market Matrix Easier HigherLower Harder

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Modelling & Indicators Modelling performance of system/systems Examples –Economies –Spread of infection –Insurance risks Deciding on “true” indicators –Partial indicators The change in value of Key Indicators

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd The SUDA Methodology There are many methodologies This is one, sensible disciplined approach –Sensing the problem –Understanding the issues –Deciding on the options for action –Acting – taking action

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Link to Diagramming Each type has an optimum use –Sort out your own ideas – Sensing –Suggest possible causes - Understanding –Suggest points of interest - Understanding –Determine impacts of actions - Deciding –Explain actions which may help – Acting

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Diagramming A key part of understanding & Communicating to the Steering Group

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Diagramming The common types –Spray Diagram –Rich Picture –Systems Map –Influence Diagram –Multiple Cause Diagram –Sign Graph –Control Diagram

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Why use Diagrams As an aid to study and note taking – Spray diagram Convince others with emotion Rich Picture – with facts all the rest Analyse how it works Many diagram types – Convey information – facts & stimulate ideas Fortunately T214 only uses 5 types A picture is worth a 1,000 words

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Factors to Consider Purpose of the diagram – to aid your own thinking – to inform or convince others Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved Estimate the effects of key factors

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Diagrams used for Sensing Sensing the problem –Spray diagram –Rich picture –Systems map (this can also be used in the understanding phase to determine the structure of problems)

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Spray Diagram Excellent for note taking –Use one per topic in initial studies –Then look for common themes –Re-draw showing connections to central topic Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and the relative interests of stakeholders

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Spray Diagram Similar to diagrams known as “Mind Maps” Excellent for note taking – Use one per article/book when studying – Then look for common themes between the sample – Re-draw showing connections to central topic Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and relative interests of key stakeholders or issues

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Spray Diagram of The Institution The Institution Member Recruitment Member Services Influence Public Perception Non-members Government Press Public Regions Events Proceedings PE Publications ILOs R. Managers Staff BFIM Marketing & PR Assessment Process Promotion Fees Admin Competing Institutions Fig. 1

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Spray Diagram Exercise Consider examples passing around, mainly from students Think of the topic “My Journey to this Tutorial” Individually write a list of the stakeholders involved Now draw a Spray Diagram in groups

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Rich Picture Requires a little more feel for the topic Does require an element of artistic talent – Do not get round this by excessive clip-art – Can convey emotion like art or photos You know good RPs when you see them –They usually show a linking thread of ideas Road from small (closed) shops to busy supermarkets Pollution in river from industry to leisure areas Studying at home with problems & distractions

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Rich Picture A little more knowledge of the topic Does require some artistic talent –Can convey emotion like good art or photos You know good ones when you see them –They usually show a linking thread of ideas Road from small (closed) shops to supermarkets Pollution in river from industry outflow to fishermen Studying at home with problems & distractions

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Studying at Home

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Rich Picture Exercise Consider examples passing around, mainly from students Consider all the SDs of “My Journey to this Tutorial” Now draw a Rich Picture in groups

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Map Show relationship between systems and components of systems Must have a named boundary – may need to experiment with the boundary Want to see levels Some overlapping is acceptable Each sub-system must be named We have mentioned where conventions matter

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd A Relevant Example

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Map Exercise Consider examples passing around, mainly from students Think of the topic “Where I Live” Individually write a list of the entities involved Now draw a Systems Map in groups

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Map of The Institution The Institution Governance TB Audit C Admin FM Cater Finance M Services BFLib Room Book BC Pubs PE Bks Proc Public Services IT Development MB Learned Soc TSB LASC M Recruit QMB Outsource Co Disc. Regions Divns TACsGrps WP Events ILOs CPD Govt.Register Fig. 2

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Example Problems The “practitioner” course allows groups to work on current topical examples They witness varying perspectives The observe new insights

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Diagrams for Understanding Understanding the problem –Systems map –Influence diagram –Multiple cause diagram –Sign graph –Modelling techniques and flow diagrams

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Influence Diagram on Potential Members National Events Service Prestige PR Qualified Non Members Government National Press Public Members Profit Local Events Fig. 3

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd MC Diagram of Delivery National Events Local Room More No.1 Rm Hire Local Events Grps/WPs (c.15) TACs (c.30) Regions (16) Centres (23) No.1 Room Other Room Electronic Non-members Served Members Served Poss. Profit Small Costs ? Fig. 4 Branches Areas Panels NationalLocal

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Techniques for Deciding Sign Graphs or Control Diagrams Multiple Criteria analysis (MCA) Strength Weakness Opportunity & Threat (SWOT) Social, Technical, Economic & Political (STEP) 4 Ws & an H What, How, Why, When & Where? Modelling

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Modelling Selection of techniques Spreadsheets –Pre-formatted –“Self built” Prediction of changed performance Essential to decide/agree indicators –Qualitative –Quantitative

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Frequently Referenced Authors Handy 4 cultures Hofstede’s culture categories Bates pathologies Pfeffer Sterner and many others

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Frequently Referenced Concepts Top down, bottom up Emergent & Managed Change Problem Articulating Skills Simplifying Strategies –Selective attention, Assuming continuity over time, Local focus, Typifying, Averaging Colonisation, Collaboration Interpenetration, boundary people, interlocking elites

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Comment on Modules Modules 1 – 6 can be expanded to 2 days Client specific project preparation can be added to a third day Arab OU tutor training of 18 hours of material A more in depth follow-up is possible

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Course Delivery This course is tailored in time & content Objective: –Management overview2 - 4 hours –Practitioner team2 – 3 days –An OU qualification2 – 3 years Group size

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Course Deliveries Many years to OU students – 16 hours pa Arab OU tutors – 24 hours Various commercial clients

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Influence Diagram A influences B, not B certainly follows A – Not a flow diagram Can map onto a Systems Map, but go to individual entities not (sub) systems Should show – a boundary although you can start without one – arrows show the direction of influence – have a key to the strength of influence When analysing them it is usually best to focus on concentrations of influences

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Influence Diagram - Hints Basically Systems Maps with lines of influence added Like SMs, snapshots of the system of interest Use to highlight key influences between components Be selective - show important influences only Use space and relative distance to indicate nature of relationship Arrows are used to indicate direction of influence Never double headed arrows - use two arrows Nearly always arrows of influence from one entity to another Use arrows of different thickness to denote different strengths of influence Provide a key Keep crossed lines to a minimum - redraw to avoid

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Drawing a ID Start with topic of key interest in centre of space Add the major relevant influences Add the “next layer” of contributory causes and their links Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” Revise and iterate, but keep your discarded versions Experiment with the appropriate Boundary Review the purpose It is a part of the ART of communication – avoid too many lines crossing – correct level of detail for the purpose

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Influence Diagram Exercise Consider examples passing around, mainly from students Think of the topic “The choice of method of getting Children to School” Individually write a list of the factors involved Now draw an Influence Diagram in groups

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Cause and Effect (1) Cause Do “That” again Trip to the Pictures One for the Road Do not follow WebZone Effect (Ultimate) No Sweets No GCSE! No Driving Licence No T205 pass Examples indicate, that there may be many links in the chain

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Cause & Effect (2) A single cause can have one Effect A single Cause can have multiple Effects Number of single Causes produce the same Effect

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Multiple Cause Diagram A causes B Should show – a boundary and – the direction of cause When using them it is often best to focus on concentrations of effects

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Good example

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Drawing a MC Diagram Start with topic of key interest in centre of space Add the major relevant causes Add the “next layer” of contributory causes and their links Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” Revise and iterate, but keep your discarded versions Experiment with the appropriate Boundary Review the purpose It is a part of the ART of communication – avoid too many lines crossing – correct level of detail for the purpose

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd MC Diagram Exercise - Scout Hut Draw a MCD of the ‘messy problem’ ‘the scout group isn’t meeting’ based on the following types of event: – Holes in fencing – The scout hut is in disrepair – No-one with financial skill – Damage done by young people – No fundraising – Budget is unrealistic – Other people do not respect the property – Not enough money – Damage done by vandals – Young people do not respect the property – Property is not secure – Young people are not involved in the upkeep

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Key Features of MC Diagrams Most interesting outcomes – RESULTS Main factors effecting THE INTERESTING RESULTS – How are they measured Qualitatively on the diagram Quantitatively via a Sign Graph Search for more links Search for feedback loops

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Comparison between IDs & MCs INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS Influences that have an effect on a situation, a broad view at an instant Represents main structural features and relationships of a situation Useful for exploring interrelationships Title Words labelling components in blobs of different sizes Arrows – representing different degrees of influence by thicknesses, dotted Key needed Arrows may be labelled System boundary distinguishing the system of interest from the environment MULTIPLE CAUSE DIAGRAMS Causes, leading to events or types of event, sequential, not a snapshot Represents causal relationships between states and events Useful for exploring why something goes wrong, or keeps re-occurring Title States or situations in phrases Arrows, single-headed, one thickness, all meaning ‘leads to, causes’ No key needed Arrows may be labelled System boundary is recommended, but I believe essential

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Considering The Boundary (Purpose) Think about the whole – holistic Think about how it all works - systemic Define or isolate that part which is practical to consider So defines and limits your Study Or the Terms of Reference for a consultant

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Sign Graph Basically a MCD, but with a + or – sign added to each cause Is the effect at one end, in the same direction at the other? Can be more, less, in/decrease, higher, lower, etc. – More car parking creates more car journeys Label with +ve if the same effect – Decrease in train fares, increases passenger journeys Label with –ve if the opposite effect Check the loops for –ve signs only – If ODD number, negative feedback, generally good – If EVEN number, positive feedback, generally bad

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Feedback Positive Feedback – Amplifies variance – Can be unstable and dangerous Negative feedback – Reduces variance – Is stable and SAFER A long time lag – Can amplify variance, before corrective action is taken – Is potentially dangerous

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Control Diagram Closed Loop – Ignore Open Loop, it only exists in theory A system has – Input – Transformation Process – Measured Output – Comparison of the Output with desired Goal – Actuator to adjust Input

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Control Diagram or Model Input(s) “Black Box” Transformation Process Output(s) Feedback Loop

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Control Diagram or Model Input(s) Actuator “Black Box” Transformation Process “Black Box” Transformation Process Comparator Output(s) Goal Feedback

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Summary of Factors to Consider Purpose of the diagram – to aid your own thinking – to inform or convince others Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved Estimate the Size of the effects of the factor Use what you have learned in the rest of your TMA

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd And Finally Do practice doing the diagrams correctly to the conventions Can be more flexible on these conventions, once it is clear they have been mastered – Diagrams are tools – Their value is their utility for you and/or your audience

20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Any Questions? Now or later to or