EU Project e-LUP Simulating land use processes – an interactive e-tool for SIA Chapter 6 (former 3) Forest Resources and Carbon Sink Second draft O. Chertov oooo Bordeaux June

ORIGINAL FORMULATION of Chapter 3: SIA and the forest cycle structure, growth and biomass carbon sink greenhouse gases and their effects Case study: 7 FE plots thru Eurasia Models: forest growth, carbon sequestration (PipeQual, BIOME) Writers: SPbSU, IGSO, SAV

Impact issues to be answered Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION. Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, here FORESTS) more quickly than they can regenerate? Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6). Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forests) Does the option affect the involvement of stakeholders in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach? The forest-wood chain: Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment?

Impact issues to be answered Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION. Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, here FORESTS) more quickly than they can regenerate? Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6). Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forests) Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach? The forest-wood chain: Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment?

Impact issues to be answered Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION. Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, her e from FORESTS) more quickly than they can regenerate? Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6). Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forests) Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach? The forest-wood chain: Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment? OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES

Chapter’s planned contents Issues, order of topics: forest and sustainable forestry forest-wood chain, sector of the EU economy climate change scenarios (J.Keskitalo) global change effects on forests, case study carbon sequestration, forests and other land use llustrations and indicators: forest cover, Europe and European Russia - afforestation trend, Europe – forest-wood chain – forest productivity – greenhouse gas emissions – scenarios and actions – EU-policies ○ Russian policies - short list ○ Impacts and assessment ○ SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - indicators? -primary: forest yield and growth models, process models, -Forest management, DSS integrated: EforWood – it is very complicated and only for “forestry-wood-chain”, FWC ○ Case study THE FOREST ECOSYSTEMS PLOTS - NETHERLANDS TO SIBERIA (5-10 pages by IGSO) ○ Visualization of tool (if any) - PUME

What issues covered Issues, order of topics: forest and sustainable forestry forest-wood chain, sector of the EU economy climate change scenarios (J.Keskitalo) global change effects on forests, case study carbon sequestration, forests and other land use llustrations and indicators: forest cover, Europe and European Russia - afforestation trend, Europe – forest-wood chain – forest productivity – greenhouse gas emissions – scenarios and actions – EU-policies ○ ○ Russian policies - short list ○ Impacts and assessment ○ SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - ○ SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - indicators? -primary: forest yield and growth models, process models, -Forest management, -Forest management, DSS integrated: EforWood – it is very complicated and only for “forestry-wood-chain”, FWC ○ Case study THE FOREST ECOSYSTEMS PLOTS - NETHERLANDS TO SIBERIA (5-10 pages by IGSO) ○ Visualization of tool (if any) - PUME

What have additionally done in Chapter 3 New scientific information and some data on relevant projects added to the text and supplementary materialsNew scientific information and some data on relevant projects added to the text and supplementary materials More illustrations includedMore illustrations included Forestry regimes are considered in more detailsForestry regimes are considered in more details Some new aspects of the problem of SFM and carbon sequestration are included in the discussionSome new aspects of the problem of SFM and carbon sequestration are included in the discussion Draft of DB (?)Draft of DB (?)

Scheme of carbon and other elements turnover in forest ecosystem

List of silvicultural regimes 1. Regular thinning and final clear cutting with successive regeneration by merchantable tree species 2. Clear-cutting with regeneration by deciduous species and a poor regeneration by merchantable trees (‘bad or illegal’ forest management) 3. Clear-cutting of two previous types with disturbances (forest fires, storm windfall, insect and fungal attacks) 4. Short rotation clear cutting (including also coppice and ‘low forest’ [’ Niederwald’] with generally vegetative regeneration by sprouts) 5. Short rotation clear cutting with fertilization (‘Plantation forestry’) 6. Partial cutting with successive natural regeneration 7. Patch cutting with successive natural regeneration 8. Selective cutting starting from young stands that is a some kind of short rotation selective system 9. Classical selective cutting 10. Dauerwald: every year cutting of a small amount of wood that is equal to the annual wood increment 11. Natural development without any cutting with the non-catastrophic natural disturbances (mostly irregular windfall and stochastic mortality) 12. Deforestation for urban and industrial use 13. Afforestation of  open mines, badlands, landslides, peat-hags, drained peat lands  polluted industrial barrens  pastures, shrub lands and degraded plough lands 14. Restoration of degraded forests after  catastrophic natural disturbances (canopy fire, insect attack, wide-area windfall),  severe anthropogenic disturbances (overgrazing, recreation, illegal cutting)

Consideration of forestry regimes in more detail according to the WP

New silvicultural concepts The idea of close-to-nature forestry (continuous forest cover) versus plantation forestry and whole tree harvesting is now declared and discussing in European forest community This approach will be developed in a frame of just submitted big EU project on adaptive forest management (coordinator: Baden- Württemberg Forest Research Institute, Freiburg, Germany)

Practical implementation of environmentally reliable forest management needs to reconsider the technological aspects of wood harvesting There is an idea of “reduced-impact logging”, RIL. It needs elaboration of new prototypes of harvesting and transport machines European and especially Russian silvicultural and harvesting technologies still use very large and heavy machines (harvesters and transporters) that significantly disturb tree roots and stems, tree regeneration ground vegetation and soil Possible trends on the development of a new environmentally neutral generation of small light machinery for non-disturbing wood harvesting (RIL). It should be some kind of NANO-TECHNIQUE Even a use of horse transportation of logs seems to be profitable in some special cases because it is absolutely ecological technology (for example, in recreational forests in combination with horse use for tourism) New technological aspects

Combination of management regimes at landscape level Various combinations of forestry options should be an optimal approach to compromise environmental, economic and social pillars of SIA The important point for the combination of different forest management options is a principle of establishment of offset regimes for any intensive ecologically not optimal forest use (Knaus et al., 2006) It means the necessity to combine the economically and socially favourable silviculture (that can be ecologically not optimal) with the environmentally unblemished but not profitable forest management

Attention to the natural mechanisms of carbon sequestration It is well known in Forest Soil Science and Ecology that wet sites have high soil Carbon pools and total carbon pool in these ecosystems is higher than on drained sites Therefore a construction of dams on forest watercourses to create small ponds will lead to water accumulation in soil due to ground water table rise and following soil Carbon sequestration The same effect will have a restoration of beaver population on small forest water streams as it was on East European Plain at all post-glacial time before growth of human population (Kaliakin et al., 2004) However, the forest productivity will be lower here in comparison with well drained forests, though it can be opposite and profitable for forest growth in Mediterranean (arid) climate Actually, the loss of forest productivity in this case represents an economical cost for Carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems

Climate change consequences Forest productivity and tree biomass increasing with decreasing of soil organic Carbon in boreal and temperate forests Forest productivity and tree biomass increasing with decreasing of soil organic Carbon in boreal and temperate forests Forest productivity and soil Carbon decreasing in Mediterranean climate Forest productivity and soil Carbon decreasing in Mediterranean climate Increasing of forest fire risk due to higher frequency of hot and dry summers Increasing of forest fire risk due to higher frequency of hot and dry summers Growth of frequency of catastrophic antmospheric events with a strong damage to forests Growth of frequency of catastrophic antmospheric events with a strong damage to forests

Region Region Future conditions Impact on Impact on forests forestsManagement Boreal forests and northern parts of Atlantic forests Higher temperature and precipitation, short duration of snow cover and soil frost, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter. Enhanced growth and regeneration, increasing dominance of deciduous species, reducing fire risk, increasing risks of wind and snow damage. Shorter rotation and regular thinnings, preference of natural regeneration and in plantation preference of more southern origin of existing tree species, more preference for deciduous species, in coniferous stands regular tending and precommercial thinning of deciduous species in favour of conifers, suppression of enhanced growth of herbs and grasses in seedling stands and regeneration areas, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change. Southern parts of Atlantic forests and Continental forests (temperate forests) Higher temperature, reducing precipitation, increasing drought risk, reducing risk of spring and autumn frost, enhancing decomposition of soil organic matter, increasing fire risk. Drought risk, reducing success of natural regeneration and growth of existing deciduous species, increasing frequency of endogenic and exogenic damages. Shorter rotation and regular thinnings with wider spacing, preference of drought tolerance conifers in plantations with wider spacing, tree improvement programmes to increase the drought tolerance of tree plantations, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change. Mediterranean forests Higher temperature, strong seasonality of precipitation with high winter precipitation and extreme summer drought, severe fire risk. Severe drought risk, reducing success of natural regeneration and growth of existing deciduous species, eliminating of tree species, increasing frequency of damaging fire. Shorter rotation, soil management and plating technique need to be developed to meet the special conditions resulted in by the increasing drought, introduction of new species now successful in dry subtropics, management of forest plantations may need technique now proper in dry subtropics, large-scale tree improvement programmes in order to increase the genetic potentials of tree plantations to adapt higher temperatures with drought, preferring wider spacing in plantations and later in thinnings, the fire fighting needs special measures, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change. Main adaptive measures for forest regions at climate change (Kellomäki et al., 2008)

Change of carbon pool in tree biomass (A) and soil (B) under climate change at four silvicultural scenarios with atmospheric nitrogen deposition 12 kg ha -1 year -1 in Russky Les Forest, Central European Russia (Mikhailov et al., 2007)

Some philosophical conclusions of practical importance Modern environmentalism and C&I of SFM has moistly defensive strategy: to protect, to stop further disturbance, degradation, pollution, etc Modern environmentalism and C&I of SFM has moistly defensive strategy: to protect, to stop further disturbance, degradation, pollution, etc The environmental strategy should be more constructive and active to restore natural ecological systems (generally all biosphere) and especially forest ecosystems The environmental strategy should be more constructive and active to restore natural ecological systems (generally all biosphere) and especially forest ecosystems

Practically, the more environmentally/ecologically sound is forestry option the higher is its price (financial, technological and sociological because high skilled professionals will be necessary) at the short-term perspective But the situation is totally opposite at the long-term time span (actually taking into account future generations) The options with a direct economic profit/gain but not environmentally reliable (for example short rotation forestry in boreal climate) always have harmful cumulative ecological effects at the long-term perspective. It can be sometimes tragic and irreversible Interaction of environmental and economic SIA in forest sector:

European governments now pay a great attention to environmental problems and especially to problems of forest conservation Perhaps, there is time now to pay great money for forest and whole nature restoration (not only a conservation of the rest) – mostly for future generations Restoration of forest ecosystems should be an additional priority of SFM

Thank you!