February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya.

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Presentation transcript:

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented economy to a world global economy A need for a new architectural structure of the financial markets and Institutions

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Identifying Business Cycles Turning Points in the Israeli Economy The Present Cyclical Position

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick The Melnick Index (2004 = 100) The contraction recession March 1996 The big crisis October 2000 The high-tech bubble May 1999 Growth and Recovery August 2003 The Present Cycle May 2008

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick The Source of Economic Resilience

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick General Government Expenditure (Percent of GDP)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick General Government Deficit (Percent of GDP)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Public Debt (Percent of GDP, Gross Debt)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Bank of Israel Interest Rate

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick International Reserves 2008 (In US dollars, millions end of the period)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Labor Force Participation (Percent)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick GDP and Business GDP (Rates of Growth, Percent)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Unemployment (Percent)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Current Account )Percent of GDP)

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Recommendations for Fiscal Policy The first priority of the new government is to approve the 2010 budget. For 2009, the government should make minor necessary adjustments to the 2008 budget. Given the present uncertainties the government should not cut taxes and/or increase expenditure. The government should allow the rise in the deficit, due to the reduction in tax collection. The fiscal deficit is expected to rise to 5% of GDP. It is crucial that the 2010 budget signals a long term, credible, deficit reduction path – and a return to a trend of reduction in public debt.

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Recommendations for Fiscal Policy 2 Up to 3% of the budget deficit, relative to GDP, should be financed by internal borrowing the rest should be financed abroad using the US loan guaranties if necessary. The government should give priorities to:  Research and Development  Labor retraining and education  Unemployment compensations The government should initiate large infrastructure projects – in collaboration with the private sector

February 2009Prof. Rafi Melnick Recommendations for Monetary Policy Monetary policy should continue to be expansionary The Bank of Israel should set the lowest possible interest rate The Bank of Israel should support the financial system and the banking system acting as “Lender of Last Resort” The Bank of Israel should continue to support the Shekel The Bank of Israel should take measures to restore proper functioning of the credit system