presented to Leadership Polk presented by John Kaliski Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 19, 2009 Florida in the Future: Competing as a Megaregion

1 Presentation Outline Megatrends shaping the global economy Florida’s changing economic geography Implications for Polk County

2 The World Is Flat Source: The Path to 2050, Goldman Sachs.

3 The World Is Flat Travel time to major cities (in hours and days) and shipping lane density Source: European Communities, 2008

4 The World Is Also Spiky Source: Richard Florida, The Atlantic, 2005 Population Density Light Emissions ~ Economic Activity

5 The World Also Is Getting Crowded 1 in 6 New Americans Could Be Floridians Source: U.S. Census Bureau million 300 million 200 million 100 million California 12.6% Texas 12.5% Rest of U.S. 44.4% FLORIDA 12.7%

6 And Our Geography Is Getting More Complex

7 And Our Geography Is Becoming More Complex From Metro Regions to Super Regions Seattle-Tacoma (25m) Minneapolis-St.Paul (8m) Dallas-Ft. Worth (30m) D.C. - Baltimore (35m) Miami - West Palm Beach (65m) Phoenix - Tucson (110m) Orlando - Tampa (80m)

8 Birth of a Super Region Tampa Bay, Polk County, and Central Florida 1970 – 2.5 million 1990 – 4.9 million 2000 – 6.0 million Source: Florida Geographic Data Library 2007 – 7.1 million

9 7 th Largest Region in the United States Population Philadelphia 6. San Francisco Bay Area 5. Boston-Providence-Manchester 4. Washington-Baltimore 3. Chicago-Gary-Kenosha 2. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty 1. New York-Northern NJ-SW CT Population (in Millions) 7.Tampa Bay- Central Florida 8. Dallas- Fort Worth 7.1 million Source: US Census Bureau

10 15th Largest Economy in the World 2005 Gross Regional Product Source: Citymayors.com with PriceWaterhouse Coopers ,0001,2001, Detroit 19. Miami-Fort Lauderdale 18. Hong Kong 17. Buenos Aires 16. Atlanta 15. Tampa Bay-Central Florida 14. Dallas-Fort Worth 13. Philadelphia 12. Houston 11. Mexico City 3. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty 2. Tokyo 1. New York-Northern NJ-Southwest CT Dollars (in Billions) 10. Osaka-Kobe $256 billion

11 From a Super Region to a Megaregion

12 Emerging Megaregions Source: America 2050

13 What Ties Us Together? Commuting Patterns 99 percent of employees live and work within region 3.1 million private sector jobs 2.1 million, or 68 percent of jobs are within 5 miles of Interstate corridors Residence Density Employment Density Source: US Census, Local Employment Dynamics

14 What Ties Us Together? B2B Relationships 23-county High Tech Corridor 21,454 companies 263,000 high tech workers 70 percent of Florida's high-tech jobs 3 of nation’s 10 largest universities

15 What Ties Us Together? Global Gateways

16 What Ties Us Together? Visitors Military History and culture Agriculture Water Habitat and wildlife corridors Recreation areas MetroJacksonville.com

17 Miami Tampa Orlando Gainesville Jacksonville Tallahassee Pensacola Florida Marlins Tampa Bay Devil Rays Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami Dolphins Jacksonville Jaguars Orlando Magic Miami Heat Florida Panthers Tampa Bay Lightning Socio-Cultural Identity Is Still Emerging Source: CommonCensus.org

18 Can the Super Region Compete Globally? Key Issues Education & economy Connectivity Quality growth Regional cooperation

19 Education Percent of Adult Population with 4-year degree, 2007 San Francisco Bay 43% 35% 27% 33% 30% 27.5% 25.8% 25% Seattle- Tacoma Dallas- Ft Worth US Florida Central Florida Tampa Bay DC- Baltimore Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

20 Economic Diversification Percent of Employment in High-Tech Industries, % 13% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% San Francisco Bay DC – Baltimore Dallas- Ft Worth US Florida Central Florida Tampa Bay Seattle- Tacoma Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Connectivity Percent of Commuters using Public Transportation, 2007 Source: US Census Bureau, % 2% 1.3% 1.2% 2% 8% 11% San Francisco Bay DC – Baltimore Dallas- Ft Worth US FloridaCentral Florida Tampa Bay Seattle- Tacoma

22 Future Development Choices 1970 – 2.5 million Urbanized Area 1990 – 4.9 million 2000 – 6.0 million 2020 – 8.8 million 2040 – 11.3 million 2060 – 13.9 million Source: USGS, Florida Geographic Data Library and 1000 Friends of Florida.

23 Public Sector Private Sector Global National Regional Local Barriers to Regional Cooperation Differences in Planning Perspectives

24 Barriers to Regional Cooperation Differences in Regional Boundaries Regional Planning Councils Water Management Districts FDOT Districts Metropolitan/Transportation Planning Organizations Enterprise Florida Regions

25 Committee for a Sustainable Treasure Coast Committee for a Sustainable Emerald Coast One Bay Heartland 2060 Our Region Tomorrow First Coast Vision How Shall We Grow?Southeast Florida 2060 Southwest Florida 2060 Florida Regional Visioning Processes

26 Choices for Polk County Blend into surrounding regions? Become an island? Position to be the connector of 3 regions?

27 How Do We Compete? Think…Think Also… Low cost labor Location Low cost of living Natural resources Individual communities High skilled workers Global connectivity Livable communities Sustainable environment Regions, super regions and megaregions