AP HUMAN GEOGRAPHY CHAPTER 5 CLASS NOTES Processes and Cycles of Population Change

The Population Explosion of the 20th Century 2.5 million years for the world’s pop. to reach 1 Billion, Only 200 more years to reach 6 billion Key to reducing population growth rates? WOMEN!!! education rights

Thomas Malthus ??? British Economist Essay on Population, 1798 World’s Population is increasing faster than the food supplies needed to sustain it

Malthus Theory Population increases at an Exponential rate Means of Subsistence (food supply) increases at an Arithmetic rate

Growth Types

Linear (Arithmetic) Growth Constant (arithmetic rate) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.

Exponential (Geometric) Growth Compounded (doubling) 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, etc.

Pick a Side Neo-Malthusian: Supports ideas of Malthus Inevitable stage in history Human suffering greater than M. predicted Anti-Malthusian: not in agreement Food production not linear> has become exponential as well Cultivated land increased New seeds and fertilizers used (biotech, yield)

Natural Increase (pop.) ??? Difference between # of births and # of deaths in a period Crude Birth Rate (CBR): live births per year per 1,000 Crude Death Rate (CDR): # of deaths per 1,000 (mortality rate)

High Birth & Death Rate High BR: S. Asia, SW Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (50 per 1000) Highest DR: Africa Deteriorating health conditions No Access Infant Mortality Rate: ??? die before 1st BDay

Low Birth Rate Low BR: Europe (15 per 1,000), N. America, Australia, China, Japan Low BR = modernization, industrialization, urbanization, education (women)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) # of children born to women of child bearing age TFR’s are declining all over the world China’s fell from 6.1 to 1.7 in just 30 years A TFR of 2.1 is needed to maintain stable population over time (60 countries below)

Past Limits on Population Growth (until 19th Century) (Malthus said we needed to check Pop.) Epidemics & Plagues (Black Death, AIDS) Famines (weather) Wars (Khmer Rouge killed 3 of 7 million people)

After 1800s… Marked increase in Pop. Growth rate in Europe 2nd Agricultural Revolution Farming methods improved Tools ***Industrial Revolution*** Sanitation, vaccines,

Demographic Change Formula To figure out the total POP. change TP = OP + B – D + I – E TP : total population OP: original population B: births D: deaths I: Immigration E: Emigration

Living Old… DEPENDENCY RATIO – Ratio of # of people either too old or too young to provide for themselves to the # of people who must support them through their own labor n : 100 n = the number of dependents

POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids) Instantly conveys the demographic situation in a country See what age group (of M & F) has what share of the population

POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids) World POPULATION What does this tell us???

What is happening to POP in each???

Nigeria 1963

Nigeria 2003

Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

Demographic Transition (Cycle) 4 STAGES MODEL Development : BR / DR (Based on Europe Model of Growth (UK)) 1. High Stationary Stage – high fertility (BR), high mortality (DR), little long term POP growth Farming, Mining (poor, underdeveloped countries)

Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

2. Early Expanding Stage – high BR, declining DR POP growth rate high Food Supply & Country Stable, Trade

DTC con. 3. Late Expanding Stage - Now declining BR, already low DR so continued POP growth Industrialization, Urbanization

4. Low Stationary Stage – low fertility, low mortality, low POP growth rate Modernization, Education, Women Rights = CORE COUNTRIES (Rich, Industrialized)

Key Questions… Why Unwise to assume that ALL countries’ growth follows DTCM (Europe)? Stationary Population Level (SPL) (DTM Stage 5?) World’s pop. will stop growing in 21st Cen. (Will Stabilize) Why??? How???