FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

Foreign policies are: “The strategies used by governments to guide their actions in the international arena.” “Foreign Policy is the behavior of states”(Charles Herman)

Study of foreign policy involves study of the both formulation and implementation of study, “how certain goals arise and why certain behaviors result”

“A Tangled Tale of Tibet” In 1989 Panchen Lama died and Buddhists look for a boy for reincarnation of Lama’s soul in Tibet. Panchen Lama choice to be reincarnated in Tibet but Chinese authorities announces Gyancain Norbu, as Panchen Lama. Dalai Lama’s choice, Gedhum Choekyi Nyima who disappeared in 1995 (detained by Chinese authorities) and declared as the youngest “political prisoner”.

Gedhun Choekyi Nyima Born: 25 April 1989 (age 25) Disappeared: May 17, 1995 (aged 6)

What is the relation between this tale and foreign policy? Why this issue is concern of the U.S?

Human right violations started in Tibet Chinese government declared that this is domestic issue! G. H.W. Bush criticized Chinese authorities for violent repression of demonstration in Tibet to end human right violations

Bill Clinton period U.S Congress decided to place human rights conditions on the yearly renewal of China’s most favored nation (MFN) trading status in 1992 (Bush period) Domestic politics in Clinton’s policy democracy and human rights or trading? What is the trade-off between human rights and market economy? Impact of globalization on human right issue and economy

Interests groups and foreign policy National Economic Council favored developing economic ties with China as primary concern, However, on the other side State Department officials favored continuing tough stance on human rights Human right groups and their supporter in congress vs. farm and business groups and their supporter in congress

Political interests Economic agencies and corporate leaders’ superior position in Congress lead changes of Clinton’s policy to threat China’s MFN status to link human rights conditions. (1994) In the “tangled tale of Tibet” decision makers in U.S deal with both domestic and international environment Bill Clinton as national leader find himself in “two level game”

Internal division in Clinton Administration and American society leaded reevaluation of policies to China. The Chinese government and the U.S domestic interest to access into the Chinese market commanded greater influence over the Clinton policy and decided to delink trade policy from human rights. Lack leverage of domestic and international human rights groups in Congress

“Foreign policy is made and conducted in complex domestic and international environments.” The Tangled tale of Tibet illustrates that Clinton had to operate in two different environments: domestic and international. ‘Nested’ or ‘two level’ game. No leaders can afford to ignore the reality of this nested game.

“Foreign policy results from the work of coalitions of interested domestic and international actors and groups” Politics is a game of bargaining and compromising, and this involves trade-offs and it is same in foreign policy making

“Foreign policy issues are often linked and delinked, reflecting the strength of various parties and their particular concerns.” Game of barging and compromising Trade-offs

Globalization China’s claim of domestic politics is off-limits of outsiders? What is the line between domestic and foreign policy? Through globalization line disappeared or blurred between domestic and international politics, internationalization of culture and economics

Domestic or international issues? “intermestic” or “transitional” combination of actors interest issues in domestic and international politics

The History and Evolution of FPA Foreign policy is: “Strategy or approach chosen by national governments to achieve its goals in its relations with external entities.”

Three paradigmatic works 1-Richard C. Snyder, H.W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin “Decision Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics” (1954, 2002 ed.) Focuses on decision making process and explanations 2-James Rosenau “Pre-theories and Foreign Policy” (1964) Focuses on development of actor-specific theory (explains behavior of specific actors)and level of middle-range theory (theory mediated between grand principles and the complexity of reality)

3-Harold and Margaret Sprout, “Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics,” (1957 as an article and book in 1965) Focuses on role of individual and their psycho-milieu (psychological, political and social contexts) factors to explain decision making process

Classic FPA Scholarship (1954-1993) First generation of works, 1954-1973, foundation of the field Cognitive Process, leaders’ personality, small group dynamics, organization process, bureaucratic politics, culture and foreign policy, domestic politics, national attributes foreign policy, system effects on Foreign Policy

Second generation of works, 1974-1993, development of the field Small group decision making, organizational process and bureaucratic politics, comparative foreign policy, psychological influences in foreign policy decision making, societal environment Both examined specific nations in foreign policy making and divergence of their choice and behavior

Methodologies Lack of information to do decision making analysis, security concerns, underdeveloped theory of comparative politics (until files declassified) Cold War; black box-uncertainty Most of the FPA works on psychological level analysis

Contemporary FPA research agenda End of the Cold War (Actor-general theory -explains behavior of actors, this theory is used during the Cold War because of the lack of information) Failure to predict fall of Soviet Union Formulating new questions and perspectives, moving from micro-level (individual oriented) to macro-level (beyond nation states, global level)

Levels Individual leaders: influence of neuroscience,to shape decision making process and structure leaders’s personality and its impact Group level: how structure, problem, situation, options are represented or developed by group Society and political competition: effects of domestic policy (culture, systemic change) on implementation of foreign policy

An Atlantic Divide American FPA vs. European FPA American: quantitative methods, focuses on American case studies Europeans: historical, process-tracing. Non-American cases

Bridge between IR and FPA Neoclassical realism: attempts to cross the divide from IR to FPA state level of analysis oriented, domestic sources of power, public support need for grand theory and also historical process tracing (FPA and IR Theory) Behavioral IR: moving in the opposition direction (FPA to IR) Social-psychological analysis of world politics (role theory) unify the understanding of actors, actions Seeks to integrate external world of events with the internal world of beliefs by examining strategic moves (use game rhetoric)