Pakistan: “A Country on the Brink” IAFS 1000

Pakistan’s Creation Originally part of British India. The British used the divide between the Muslims & Hindu’s in a strategy to maintain control. Pakistan was formed in 1947 out of partition from British controlled India. During the split from India, a mass migration of over 15 Million. Muslims were going to Pakistan as Hindus were leaving for India. The creation of Pakistan was tumultuous, resulting in chaos, riots, deaths & crimes against humanity. This deepened the rift between Muslims and Hindus.

Partition: Partition left both India & Pakistan devastated socially & economically. Some of the atrocities committed between the Muslims & Hindus were widespread rape, pillaging & murder, bordering on genocide. This included the bombing of trains of immigrants by Hindus and even filling trains full of the dismembered bodies & sending them across the border into Pakistan.

The Early Years After Partition - Pakistan & East Pakistan on the other side of India. East Pakistan rebelled and split from Pakistan in the 1971 India/Pakistan war to become Bangladesh. Pakistan itself is divided into four main areas: Baluchistan, North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjab, & Sindh. Another province, Kashmir, is still under dispute with India & has been the cause of war between the countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 & 1999.

Jammu and Kashmir Dispute between Pakistan & India over Jammu & Kashmir goes back to partition of 1947. Initially, Kashmir was to join with Pakistan, but the Hindu Maharaja, Hari Singh, refused. Pakistan tried to scare him with military force. In response, Singh signed an article of accession, Kashmir would join India if India helped repel Pakistani forces. Territory has been disputed ever since.

Pakistan and India India & Pakistan have been archrivals since the partition and disputes over Kashmir have propagated this. They compete politically, economically and militarily. They are both nuclear nations with limited first strike ability. Given the mutual hatred and history of war between these two nations and India’s rising prosperity, there is a high level of instability in the region.

Pakistan Today Although the 4 provinces in Pakistan are officially united, each one has its individual culture and identity. Some even have strong separatist sentiments such as the NWFP which harbors Al Qaeda & the Taliban.

Politics Pakistan goes back and forth from being a democracy and being ruled by a military dictator after a coup. Pakistani politics have a tradition of being underhanded, violent, and volatile.

History of Pakistan’s Political Leaders 1948: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan, dies 1951: Jinnah’s successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is assassinated. 1956: Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic Republic. 1958: General Ayyub Khan becomes president. 1969: General Yahya Khan takes over in a coup. 1973: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazir’s father) becomes PM. 1979: General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs Bhutto in a military coup & becomes president. Daughter Benazir goes into exile, returns in 1986. 1988: Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash. Bhutto’s Pakistan’s Peoples Party wins election & she becomes PM. 1990: Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on charges of incompetence & corruption.

History of Pakistan’s Leaders Continued 1991: PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic liberalization. 1993: PM Sharif resigns under pressure from military. General election brings Bhutto back to power. 1996: Pres. Leghari dismisses Bhutto’s govt. amid corruption allegations. Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan Muslim League wins. 1999: Bhutto and her husband are convicted of corruption and sentenced. Benazir flees to exile. Later that year Sharif is overthrown by General Pervez Musharraf in a military coup. 2007: Bhutto’s and Sharif’s parties protest Musharraf. Musharraf takes over media and communication networks. 2008: Musharraf forced to step down in face of impeachment/Zardari elected 2010 Constitutional change making President even more of a figurehead 2011 Musharraf indicted for assassination of Benazir Bhutto 2013 Nawaz Sharif elected again as PM/ Zardari finishes term as President

Benazir Bhutto's Timeline

Bhutto’s Assassination 2007

The Musharraf Era Musharraf came to power in a 1999 military coup, self appointed as president in 2001. Enjoyed western support due to his announced intentions in 2002 to combat extremists in Pakistan. Legitimacy of his rule is dubious - In 2007 he suspended the constitution and jailed several supreme court members before they were about to evaluate the validity of his election. During Musharraf’s time Pakistan enjoyed impressive economic performance. Musharraf’s approval rating plummeted to 15%.

Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror US supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever since he pledged to be an ally to the US in the war on terror. US placed its faith in Musharraf by appropriating over $10B in foreign aid since 9/11. Stark contrast to the sanctions US had against Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his support. Question now is whether or not the US should have continued to support Musharraf since he became widely unpopular and Illegitimate.

Should the US have continued to support Musharraf? And then Zardari? YES: The US was familiar with him, he offered continuity. A different leader could have been worse politically. He is more moderate than Sharif and the PPP. NO: The aid given him did very little. He was undemocratic and vastly unpopular. By continuing to support him the US lost the credit it has gained in the Middle East by supporting an Islamic nation.

Current Situation Mumbai killings Bhutto/Zardari Musharraf gone Judge Swat Valley and FATA Allowed to govern themselves – Sharia law Predator strikes into these areas

Pakistan’s Political Parties PML (Q) - Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-I-Azam) “King’s Party” - staunch supporter of Musharraf, close to military Conservative, right wing PML (N) - Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) Split from PML (Q) after 1999 coup & Nawaz Sharif was exiled Led by Sharif, centered in Punjab

PPP - Pakistan People’s Party Led by Benazir Bhutto until assassination Now headed by Asif Ali Zardari (Husband) & Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (son) Centered in Sindh, also strong in Punjab Socialist, democracy advocates MMA - Majlis-i-Amal Alliance of 6 major religious parties Formed after Musharraf joined War on Terror Controlled Baluchistan & NWFP fm 02-08 Supportive of a theocracy

ANP - Awami National Party Secular, nationalistic Pashtuns Centered in NWFP Close ties to Afghanistan’s president Hamid Karzai Wants to reform tribal political systems MQM - Muttahida Quami Movement Based in Sindh pro-Musharraf coalition militant and unreliable

Pakistan Elections Elections were to be held Jan. 8th 2008 Bhutto assassinated Dec. 27th Two alternative versions to assassination Election Delayed PPP and PML (N) wanted elections held as planned (Zardari & Sharif) Electoral Commission decides to push election back to Feb. 18th Supposedly independent, likely controlled by Musharraf

Army withdrawal from politics Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani now in charge Kiyani ordered withdrawal from politics 300 army officers told to leave their ministerial positions Kiyani ordered soldiers, officers not to take sides in election U.S. has demanded military stay out of political affairs, threatening to slow aid if it doesn’t ($5.4 bil to fight militants so far)

February 2008 Election Results 268 total seats PML (Q) - 42 PPP - 113 PML (N) - 85 MMA - 3 ANP - 10 MQM - 19

Muree Declaration PPP and PML (N) make deal to share power in Punjab, federal government Zardari (Husband) becomes President PPP accepts Sharif’s demands to restore 60 sacked judges PML (N) drops campaign pledges to rewrite constitution & try Musharraf

Secularism in NWFP After Feb. elections, ANP forms coalition with PPP to control NWFP MMA’s mullahs ousted from power Hopefully close ties to Hamid Karzai will lead to greater border cooperation Hoping to reform politics in region to reduce mullah’s control

What has new coalition done ? Freed all 60 sacked judges Pledged to reinstate them, but no date set Appointed Raza Gillana as PM PPP loyalist, likely to pass off post to Zardari after by-elections Zardari not completely alienating Musharraf allies Brought MQM into coalition in Sindh

Internal Actors Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Link to LET, & JUD Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET) Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) Banned by UN Security Council and Pakistan Taliban Al Qaeda Not the same as militant group

Dilemma Misperceived external threats Legitimate internal threats http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR14_hRCAKE

Grand Bargain Addressing sources of Pakistani insecurity: Inclusion of local insurgent groups into political process Resolve Kashmir dispute with India Durand Line Long-term political vision for FATA Transparency and Cooperation in regional objectives.

The Future in Pakistan Pakistan will crumble into 4 states Islamists like Taliban leader Meshud will turn Pakistan into an Iran-like theocracy Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of Islamists or worse…terrorists. Can the army prevent these doomsday scenarios or will the army succumb to Islamist elements as well?