INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL AND LARGE COMMERCIAL (IALC) ROADMAP CUSTOM IMPACT EVALUATION WEBINAR TO PRESENT RESEARCH PLAN Presentation July 28, 2014 Kay Hardy, Kris Bradley

RESEARCH PLAN PRESENTATION AGENDA – JULY 28, 2014 »Custom Program Impact Evaluation Research Plan posted to EnergyDataWeb: The plan may be downloaded from Select the search tab and then select Evaluation Firm: Itron and Portfolio Cycle Click the search button and you will see the plan file for downloading. »Introduction Kay Hardy (10 min.) » IALC Research Plan Kris Bradley (50 min.) »Group discussion and wrap up (25 min.)

IALC CUSTOM RESEARCH PLAN »Research Plan was posted for review July 15, 2014 »The Research Plan: Overview of IALC Work Orders Composition of 2013 Claims Evaluation Components and Approaches Sampling Plan Timeline and Budget »Two Work Orders are in place to cover the major IALC Evaluation Activities Custom measures NRNC whole-building measures »Data requests for IOU documentation are proceeding

2013 CLAIMS SUMMARY Note: SDG&E portfolio gas savings claims are less than the IALC savings claims because the portfolio savings include a substantial component of negative savings from lighting interactive effects that do not generally impact IALC claims.

CURRENT IALC WORK ORDERS »The Custom Impact Evaluation — featuring appropriately rigorous M&V and NTG evaluation — will address gross and net impact measurement after isolating a heterogeneous subset of non-deemed claims in the IALC population. Focus of the research plan posted and the discussion today »The NRNC Impact Evaluation will feature M&V and NTG evaluation similar to the Custom Impact Evaluation, but applied to whole-building projects. Research plan not yet posted »Custom Lighting Impact Evaluation activities are being re-mapped to the downstream lighting impact evaluation

CLAIMS BREAKDOWN

ADJUSTMENTS TO ORIGINAL EM&V PLAN Original EM&V Plan Studies and Budgets Proposed Work Orders and Budgets

SAMPLING PLAN SUMMARY

CUSTOM POP. AND GROSS IMPACT SAMPLE

CUSTOM POPULATION AND NTG SAMPLE

TIMELINE

GROSS IMPACT EVALUATION »This activity will include evaluation of nonresidential, custom-type projects after they have been installed by the end user and have had savings claimed by the IOU programs. »This ex-post evaluation activity will focus on estimation of gross realization rates for statistically representative samples of custom projects. »The gross impact evaluation activities will utilize project-specific measurement and verification (M&V) and application review samples to estimate gross realization rates. »Greater M&V rigor is planned for large projects in sampling strata 1 and 2. Analysis will most often involve additional on-site metering with extensive engineering analysis to calculate the ex-post impact of selected projects. »Smaller projects will receive a less rigorous approach in order to most economically analyze the sample points. While on-site verification and some data collection will occur in each of these cases, additional site measurements will be limited to spot measurements and collection/verification of available data (i.e., EMS/SCADA/ex-ante metering). »190 PY2013 points and 125 PY2014 points.

PROJECT PRACTICES ASSESSMENTS »Project Practices Assessments (PPAs) are enhanced claims reviews that will be incorporated into the 13/14 IALC Custom Impact evaluation. »The purpose of the PPA process is to build upon the results of the Low Rigor Assessment (LRA) process that was part of the 10/12 evaluation in a manner consistent with claims review requirements that are part of ESPI. »Nested within all gross impact points.

NET TO GROSS EVALUATION »The proposed NTG evaluation will consist of an interview-based evaluation for a representative sample of selected projects, yielding NTG ratios, and the use of ratio estimation to aggregate to program- level savings estimates. »Similar to the gross impact approach, a mix of rigorous professional interviews and basic rigor CATI surveys will be conducted. »153 PY2013 points and 175 PY2014 points.

NTG OVERALL APPROACH »Core approach is self-report, as in ‘10-’12. Other approaches are generally not feasible for these types of customers. »For all sampled projects, the participating customer will be interviewed. »For all participants that are account-managed, the account reps will also be interviewed to help assess their roles/influence and to help identify the correct respondent. »If the participant scores the vendor importance highly, a trade ally interview will also be conducted to discern their role/influence. »Additional market assessments will be conducted for some equipment markets suspected of becoming standard practice, as in ‘06-’08. »There is a separate work order to address Spillover. Spillover questions will be included in the IALC phone surveys. However the IALC and other Nonresidential program spillover data will be analyzed under this separate Spillover work order.

PROGRESS REPORTING »Monthly progress reports will be sent to CPUC. »A tracking database will be used to track progress on M&V assignments and NTG assignments. Built on the experiences of WO033, a revised platform is planned that will incorporate both M&V and NTG activity in one database. »Periodic meetings, in addition to the above and at a frequency as directed by CPUC, will be held to discuss accomplishments, plans and pending activities / decisions.

DISCUSSION