Politics of the Middle East TTurkey Turkey

History Ottoman Empire emerged 13th C Peaked 15th 17th C, Suleiman the Magnificent Siege of Vienna 1683, Great Turkish War 1699 Ottoman Decline Turkish War of Independence (1919–1922) Kemal Ataturk the establishment the modern Republic of Turkey in 1923 Treaty of Lausanne 24 July 1923 Turkish Republic 29 October 1923

population exchange, 1.1 million Greeks left Turkey for Greece in exchange for 380,000 Muslims WWII February NATO Member 1960, 1971, 1980 Military Coupe 1974 Invasion of Cyprus 1984 PKK insurgency campaign 2013 Protests, Gezi Park

People 76,667,864 (18 th ) 70–75% Turks, 18% Kurds, 7–12% others 26% under the age of 14 99% Muslim, Sunni Majority Million Alevis 85% Turkish speaking, 12% Kurdish 1 Million Syrian Refugees

Economy GDP $1.512 trillion (17th) Per Capita $19,556 (61st) The public debt to GDP ratio peaked at 75.9% during the recession of 2001, falling to an estimated 26.9% by 2013 from 2002 to 2007 averaged 6.8% growth annually

Government Unitary Parliamentary Constitutional Republic Universal suffrage 1933 President elected for 5 yr terms, extensive reserve powers. Prime Minister elected by parliament Grand National Assembly 550 seats elected to 4 yr terms Kemalism, Islamism

Kurds 10 – 25% of the population PKK 1984 – 2013 National Autonomy Maoist – Leninist doctrine ISIS, Kobani

Foreign Relations Founding Member of the UN EEC, 1995 EU Customs Unions, 2005 negotiations for full membership 2 nd Largest standing army in NATO: 495,000 Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis Greece and the Aegean

Regional Power Zero problems towards neighbours; Proactive and pre-emptive peace diplomacy: facilitating regional reconciliation processes; Multi-dimensional foreign policy: diversifying Turkey's alliances to avoid dependence on any actor. NATO and the EU remain the elements of continuity; Rhythmic diplomacy: participating in all important global issues and international organisations.

Politics of the Middle East The Maghreb

Libya Population 6,244,174 (108th) GDP $ billion (80 th ) Per capita $11,497 (82nd) 1977 onward, per capita income in the country rose to more than US $11, Independence from Italy 1951 Released from UK French Mandate 1969 Muammar Gaddafi seized power 2011 Civil War, NATO intervention 2014 General Elections

Government theoretically governed by a parliament House of Representatives elected in the June 2014 elections parliament's control severely limited by the internal conflict with militias, which control Tripoli General National Congress elected 2012 to serve until Some members who were not re-elected formed a new General National Congress in Tripoli the elected House of Representatives meets in Tobruk

Gaddafi 1 September 1969, military officers led by 27-year-old army officer Muammar Gaddafi staged a coup d'état against King Idris 2 March 1977, Libya officially became the "Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya". Gaddafi officially passed power to General People's Committees, claiming to a symbolic figurehead Formally a democracy though the government refused to publish results The Green Book From assassination attempt by US A gathering of more than 200 African kings and traditional rulers, meeting August 2008, conferred on Colonel Gaddafi the title "King of Kings of Africa".

Foreign Relations Chadian–Libyan conflict 1977 Libya started delivering military supplies to militias in Chad, then invaded Libya and Egypt fought a four-day border war sponsored paramilitary and terrorist groups around the world 1986 Airstrike 1988 Lockerbie Disaster Return to the international community following admission of guilt for Lockerbie and compensation paid.

Revolution 17 February 2011, National Transnational Council NATO intervention, No Fly Zones October 2011 loyalist forces defeated July 2012, first parliament elected Sufi Mosques destroyed, US Embassy attack

Algeria Population38,700,000 GDP $522.6 billion Per capita $13,788 Agriculture 14%, industry, 13.4%; public works: 10%; trade: 14.6%; government: 32%; other: 16%

Government presidential republic President elected to 5 yr terms, appoints the PM who is head of government People’s National Assembly, 462 seats, limited legislative power 2012 elections 44% voter turnout the military, remains the major power-holder along with a select group of unelected civilians. These are known as “le pouvoir” (“the power”)

French Rule Mass protests against French rule May 1945, met with harsh response. 15,000 deaths 1947 Organic Statute of Algeria, ‘meritous’ 1954 – 62 War of Independence Evian Accords, 1 million French Algerians leave the exodus deprived the country of most of its managers, civil servants, engineers, teachers, physicians, and skilled workers. Several 100’s of thousands made homeless 70 %t of the work force was unemployed

Islamists Parties and Government Challenges 1989 New Constitution Islamic Salvation Front won elections with 50% of the vote in 1990 Military intervention followed, crack down on ISF, subsequent elections postponed. Low intensity civil conflict with the state continues Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat 2006 al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) 1996 a referendum introduced changes to the constitution, enhancing presidential powers and banning Islamist parties Civil Concord was approved in a nationwide referendum 2000 offered amnesty for anti government rebels, 80% decrees in insurgent activity In September 2005, another referendum

Morocco Population 33,250,000 (39 th ) GDP $189.1 billion Per capita $5, % Muslim 1956 independence from France and Spain

Government Unitary Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy King appoints the PM from the majority party and government ministers Prime Minister is the head of Government Parliament approves bills, budget and may dissolve the government Assembly of Councillors, 270 members 9 year terms Assembly of Representatives, 325 members 5 year terms, 30 seats reserved fro women

Tunisia Population 10,982,754 Majority Arab-Berber GDP $ billion Per Capita $9,774 Independence from France 1956

Government 1956 – 2011 single party state, dominated by Constitutional Democratic Rally, Habib Bourgiba and Zine el Abidine Ben Ali democratic constitutional republic President head of state, elected to 5 yr terms, appoints the PM Prime Minister head of government Bi-cameral legislature, 23% of seats held by women, US 17% court system influenced by French civil law

Revolution high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, poor living conditions, freedom of speech Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year street vendor, who set himself afire in protest at the confiscation of his goods and humiliation by a municipal official. violence erupted following Bouazizi's death President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power.

The Periphery Pakistan, Afghanistan

Pakistan Population, 196,174,380 GDP $855 billion Per Capita $4,699 Majority Sunni Muslim

Government Federal Islamic Republic Islam is the state religion President Elected to 5 yr terms by an Electoral College: Senate, National Assembly and members of the provincial assemblies Prime Minister elected from the national assembly

Senate, elected by equal representation from the 4 provinces Passes and initiates legislation, excluding budget National Assembly, elected to 5 yr terms by proportional representation 5% of seats reserved for religious minorities, 50 seats reserved for women Can impeach the President Supreme Court, judges appointed by President Sharia Court, appointed by the President from former justices of the Supreme court

Foreign Relations Close military and economic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, US Since the Partition of British India, conflicts have erupted in 1947, 1965, Bangladesh Liberation War (East Pakistan)

Nuclear Weapons Nuclear capable – 200 available warheads A. Q. Khan network Gas ultra-centrifuges Centrifuge technologies exchanged for missile technologies with N. Korea, as well as deals with Iran and Libya Musharraf vs Khan vs Bhutto

ISI and the Taliban Developed from the Soviet – Afghan War, Trained by Pakistan, Armed by US and Saudi Arabia Attempt to promote a pro-Pakistan government Following Soviet withdrawal civil war emerged , 80 to 100 Pakistani’s fought with the Taliban against Ahmed Shah Masood and the Northern Alliance

Afghanistan Population 31 million Languages: Dari (50%) Pashtu, Uzbek, Turkmen 80% Sunni, 20% Shia

Pashtun40% Tajik33% Hazara11% Uzbek9% Aimak 1% Turkmen 2% Baloch 1%

Soviet – Afghan War 1979 invasion to support socialist government 80% of the country evaded Soviet control 1986 Stinger Missile Project Mujahedeen funded by US, UK, Saudi, Egypt, China, Iran through Pakistan ISI 1992 Government falls Afghan Arabs Mujahedeen myth

Taliban Peshwar Accord, Islamic State of Afghanistan Civil War, Tribal Warlords Taliban, 1996 – 2001, Mullah Omar Northern Alliance Following 9/11 refusal to surrender Osama bin Landen resulted in multi- national invasion

Government President, elected for 5 yr terms, Head of State, appoints cabinet members and provincial governors with legislative approval House of Elders, 1/3 appointed by the President 1/3 elected by provincial councils, 1/3 district councils House of the People, Serve 5 yrs elected by proportional representation

Current Situation Limited infrastructure Limited economic growth, narcotics Power of the central government limited to major cities US withdrawal 2014