The Next Wave of Massive Disruptions to the Peering Ecosystem Tokyo Peering Forum II June 22, 2006 William B. Norton Co-Founder & Chief Technical Liaison Equinix, Inc. Slide set v0.8

Internet Operations White Papers Name: William B. Norton Internet Researcher What is Peering? When does it make sense?

On the Internet Everyone is a Publisher

Internet Operations White Papers 1)“Interconnection Strategies for ISPs” 2)“Internet Service Providers and Peering” 3)“A Business Case for Peering” 4)“The Art of Peering: The Peering Playbook” 5)“The Peering Simulation Game” 6)“Do ATM-based Internet Exchanges Make Sense Anymore?” 7)“Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem” 8)“The Asia Pacific Internet Peering Guidebook” 9)“The Folly of Peering Traffic Ratios?” Freely available. See Web site or send to Internet makes anyone a publisher, similar effect now emerging for video

Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem  Short Videos YouTube – founded 2005 Short video clips – 50 million view per day! 20Gbps of peering traffic –In less than 1yr Entering Peering Ecosystem 30 Other competitors  600Gbps peerable? VideoPeering may dwarf current peered traffic –2010 – 80-90% Internet is Video –Inculcate video guys into peering ecosystem On the Internet Everyone is a Broadcaster Short video clips…Full TV shows… Source:

Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem  Full Episodes “Desperate Housewives” – 210MB/hour –For 320x240 Video iTunes image 10,000,000 households 2,100,000,000 MB = 2.1 peta-Bytes How long will that take to download? Source: Historical Perspective…review 5yr disruptions… 3 64Gbps non-stop ! Just one show Try 250M*180 Channels*HDTV

Evolution #1 1)Volume of traffic is huge 2)Cable Cos Open Peering 3)“Kazaa Effect” amplifies peering benefits Scale: O(20Gbps) peered Significant Evolution… 2002: Evolution #1 Cable Companies Peer T1 ISPs T2 ISPs Content

1)Volume of traffic is huge 2)Content is Open Peering 3)Improves End-User Experience 4) Leading Players are paving the way Scale: O(100Gbps) peered Significant Evolution… T2 ISPs Content T1 ISPs T2 ISPs Content 2002: Evolution #2 Large Scale Content Players Peer

1)Volume of traffic pulled away from T1s is huge 2) Reduces perceived need for T1s (for local delivery anyway) 3) T1s still needed for distance  Content Literally directly on The Cable Company Network Scale: O(100Gbps) Significant Evolution… 2002: Evolution #3 Cable Cos Peer w/Large Scale Content Players T2 ISPs Content T2 ISPs Content T1 ISPs Content T2 ISPs

1)Volume of traffic is huge 2) Most Traffic is Regional 3) Massive Growth 4) Many Emerging players 5) Video size growth Scale: O(600Gbps) Significant Evolution… 2006: Evolution #4 VideoPeering T2 ISPs Content T2 ISPs Content T1 ISPs Content T2 ISPs Video Service Providers Notes: Questionable if aggregate capacity exists TBD Impact of CDN/P2P/Satellite/caching/etc. Net Neutrality Issues not considered here

Predictions for Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold 2.10% of all cell phones are now video phones 3.Video IM emerged as a dominant app 4.P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos – DRM in place and embraced 5.Voice calls are free, bundled with other things 6.IPTV replaces cable TV 7.40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for Internet Content packages. Source: NANOG & Content Forum Discussions – June 2006

Other Predictions (cont’d) 1.Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based on demographic profiles of viewer 2.Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different demographics.

Summary Massive Wave of new video traffic within 12 months –Short video clips – 100’s of gbps –TV Shows – 2.1 petabytes/Video iPod show –“Video Peering” Prepare for the next wave of Internet Traffic It is peerable content These forums are very valuable as a place to share information, insights, data