International Environmental Treaties: Ozone and Climate Dr. Lisa R. Shaffer Assistant Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Executive Director, UCSD Environment and Sustainability Initiative September 2006

2 What is an international treaty? Voluntary commitment by “states” (i.e., nations) Treaties are signed and then ratified Ratification means that the terms of the treaty become binding obligations within the ratifying party Each treaty defines the threshold which triggers “entry into force.” Until that point, none of the parties are bound by its terms Each treaty defines mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement, e.g., “Name and shame” Fines, seizures Other sanctions (e.g., trade ban)

3 The “Ozone Treaty” is more than the Montreal Protocol Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985/1988) Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987/1989) London amendment (1990/92) added other substances, created financial mechanisms to cover developing country compliance costs Copenhagen amendment (1992/94) added more substances Montreal amendment; Beijing amendment For more info see UNEP Ozone Secretariat;

4 The “Climate Treaty” is more than the Kyoto Protocol UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992/94) Kyoto Protocol (1997/2005) Marrakech accords (2001) For more info see

5 The International Ozone Story Ozone depletion was first discussed by the Governing Council of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in A meeting of experts on the ozone layer was convened in 1977, after which UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) set up the Coordinating Committee of the Ozone Layer (CCOL) to periodically assess ozone depletion Intergovernmental negotiations for an international agreement to phase out ozone depleting substances started in 1981 and concluded with the adoption of the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in March The Vienna Convention encourages intergovernmental cooperation on research, systematic observation of the ozone layer, monitoring of CFC production, and the exchange of information.

6 Ozone, continued The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was adopted in September 1987 and entered into force in It was designed so that the phase out schedules could be revised on the basis of periodic scientific and technological assessments. The Protocol was adjusted to accelerate the phase out schedules. It has also been amended to introduce other kinds of control measures and to add new controlled substances to the list.

7 The Climate Change Story 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988 to conduct periodic assessments of the state of scientific knowledge on climate change, modeled after the ozone assessment process In 1992 governments agreed to a Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that entered into force in 1994, ratified by 189 countries

8 Kyoto Protocol 1997 A supplemental agreement to the UNFCCC - signed at COP-3 in 1997 by 84 countries, including the US. Entered into force in Feb after ratification by 55 Parties, including those accounting for at least 55% of CO 2 emissions in US has not ratified. Establishes legally binding targets for industrialized countries (Annex 1) totaling at least 5% below 1990 levels by (the first “commitment period”).  Individual targets ranged from –8% for EU to +10% for Iceland  For US: 7% reduction

9 At COP 1 (Berlin, March/April 1995), in a decision known as the Berlin Mandate, Parties launched a new round of talks to decide on stronger and more detailed commitments for industrialized countries. The complexity of the negotiations, meant that considerable “unfinished business” remained even after the Kyoto Protocol itself was adopted. The Protocol did not explain the all-important rules of how the mechanisms would operate. Although 84 countries signed the Protocol, indicating that they intended to ratify, many were reluctant to actually do so and bring the Protocol into force before having a clearer picture of the treaty’s rulebook. A new round of negotiations culminated at COP 7 with the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords, setting out detailed rules for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

10 The US Situation How does the US Government commit to an international treaty? US Constitution, Article 2, Section 2 “The President …shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur …” The US signed and ratified the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol, as well as the UNFCCC. The US signed the Kyoto Protocol but it has not been ratified by the Senate.

11 How an international treaty becomes enforceable when ratified in the US Regulations promulgated by EPA to protect the ozone layer are in Title 40, Part 82 of the Code of Federal Regulations (commonly referred to as 40 CFR Part 82). Regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions do not exist at the national level.

12 Why do governments enter into treaties? Self-interest - costs of NOT agreeing are greater than costs of participating Is the ozone experience a good model for climate change? Perception of the risk from ozone hole problem Clear science, serious consequences - HIGH COSTS, EASILY UNDERSTOOD Perception of costs Limited causes, available substitutes, no need for trading and allocations - all ozone substances need to be phased out - LOW COSTS, AVAILABLE RESPONSES Perception of risk from climate change… Perception of costs of compliance…

13 The role of industry in ozone & climate Ozone depleting substances (CFCs) produced by very small number of companies Same companies developed non-depleting substitutes so their economic interests were not harmed by treaty implementation Greenhouse gas production - very widespread and diffuse; alternatives in most cases available from different sources than GHG producers

14 Kyoto There is virtually no dispute that full implementation of Kyoto will have little impact on greenhouse gas concentrations. Proponents say Kyoto still a good first step and establishes principles and a process that could build to more significant commitments later Doubters say the economic costs of compliance outweigh the benefits to society. Others suggest that it’s a distraction from undertaking the fundamental modifications in world economic practice that will be required.

15 California takes action without a treaty: why?

16 California takes action without a treaty: why?

17 What should the US do? Action happens when interests are aligned. How can governments encourage and reward behavior that reduces GHG emissions and discourage and/or punish behavior that increases emissions?